--- title: "Ibiden says AI-server substrate demand grows 5.4 times by 2030, and its shares fell 15% anyway" description: "Ibiden expects demand for the boards under AI accelerators to outrun industry supply through 2030, and its own shares still fell hard on the day. AT&S, left off Nvidia's paid-capacity list, must answer with two cash numbers on November 5." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Chips" published: 2026-10-30T18:04:06.501Z modified: 2026-10-30T18:04:06.501Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/ibiden-says-ai-server-substrate-demand-grows-5-4-times-by-2030-and-its-shares-fell-15-anyway language: en keywords: "Nvidia, Semiconductors, Supply Chain, Substrates" --- # Ibiden says AI-server substrate demand grows 5.4 times by 2030, and its shares fell 15% anyway > Ibiden expects demand for the boards under AI accelerators to outrun industry supply through 2030, and its own shares still fell hard on the day. AT&S, left off Nvidia's paid-capacity list, must answer with two cash numbers on November 5. [Ibiden](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/ibiden) (Tokyo: 4062), the Japanese maker of the boards AI accelerators sit on, said on October 30, 2026, that demand for AI-server substrates will grow 5.4 times by 2030 and that total demand will significantly exceed what the industry can supply [1][2]. Ibiden had just raised its full-year profit forecast on AI-server orders, and its shares still fell 15%, enough to hit the Tokyo exchange's daily price limit [1]. The open question is no longer whether the substrate shortage is real; it is who can finance a share of it, and the next answer comes from AT&S (Vienna: ATS) on November 5 [3]. ## Bigger boards are driving the shortage AI accelerators are assembled as chiplets on packages that keep growing, so each accelerator consumes more board. [Ibiden's presentation](https://fourweekmba.com/ai-ibiden-plans-151-billion-yen-investment-above-annual-profit/) shows substrate sizes rising from 80 by 80 millimetres to 130 by 130 by 2030, with layer counts rising in step [1]. Most of the extra demand comes from each board getting bigger and denser rather than from more chips. *Chart: **Most of the 5.4x growth in AI substrate demand is bigger boards, not more chips** Bar chart comparing Ibiden's 2026 to 2030 growth multiples: AI accelerator market 1.8 times, production load per board 3.0 times, substrate demand 5.4 times.* *Ibiden's forecast multiples for AI GPU and ASIC semi-additive-process substrates, 2026 to 2030, based on customer information. Source: Ibiden results presentation, October 30, 2026, via FourWeekMBA [1]. [1]* [Nvidia's counter, signed at GTC Berlin on October 21](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/329359/20261022/nvidia-commits-11-billion-chip-testing-targets-15x-optics-capacity-vera-rubin.htm) with Ibiden, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Unimicron, lifts contracted substrate supply about 2.5 times over three years; [the list, which we reported on October 24](https://theinference.org/article/nvidia-pays-ibiden-samsung-electro-mechanics-and-unimicron-for-substrate-capacity-at-s-fell-18-6), does not include AT&S [5][6]. Ibiden is adding about ¥150 billion of plant at Gama, but mass production there starts in fiscal 2029, and capacity of this kind takes two to three years from money to qualified output [1][5]. One of the two plans is wrong, and everything built on substrates inherits the difference. ## The risk at AT&S is cash, not demand AT&S [expanded its Kulim plant in Malaysia in June on agreements with AMD and one other unnamed technology company](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/at-and-s-austria-technologie-and-systemtechnik-ag-at0000969985/69543973), a €1.5 to 2.0 billion project it says is fully financed by long-term customer commitments [7]. It lifted its revenue-growth forecast to 45 to 55% at the same time [7]. The balance sheet is thinner than the order book: [customer prepayments stood at €907 million at June 30](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/deutsche-bank-raises-target-for-at-und-s-stock-from-eur-320-00-to-eur-380-00/70397293) [8], and [the June quarter produced €39.9 million of operating cash flow](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/at-und-s-reports-eur-548-70-million-revenue-at-und-s-stock-costs-eur-157-80-below-its-eur-380-00/70391872), a fraction of the company's debt [9]. A stock trading far below the €242 high it set this year [4] is being priced on its balance sheet, not on its orders. *Chart: **Back to positive free cash flow, just as the big spending starts** Line chart of AT&S free cash flow from fiscal 2022 to fiscal 2027 estimate, swinging from positive to deeply negative and back to positive.* *Free cash flow, € millions, fiscal years ending March; FY2027 is consensus estimate. Source: MarketScreener financials via zonebourse [10]. [10]* ## The AI line nobody models AT&S also disclosed on October 21 that Infineon, the German power-chip maker, [had given it a Best Value Creation award](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/at-und-s-stock-infineon-award-highlights-ai-power-module-technology/70433085) for embedding technology in power modules for AI servers, after more than ten years of cooperation [3][4]. No revenue is attached. But Infineon is investing €1.1 billion through 2034 in power chips for AI data centers at Villach and has begun shipping rack power-delivery products [11], and embedded modules are how that silicon reaches a rack. It is the AI business at AT&S that sits outside every earnings model. ## Two cash lines decide the discount Two lines in the November 5 half-year report decide the discount: customer prepayments holding above their June 30 level, and operating cash flow stepping up from the June quarter and staying there [8][9]. While the prepayments keep coming, AT&S owns a scarce substrate business. If they stop, it owns a fab it cannot fill. Above both lines, AT&S is the cheapest listed exposure to a shortage Ibiden dates to 2030, against [a €308 consensus target](https://www.zonebourse.com/cours/action/AT-S-AUSTRIA-TECHNOLOGIE--6814931/finances/) [10]. Below them, the 45% discount to the peak is the right price [10]. The shortage runs for years; the constraint has moved to the balance sheet, and the reward now sits with whoever can carry it. ## Takeaway Substrate demand may outrun supply through 2030, but the constraint has moved to the balance sheet; AT&S's November 5 prepayments and operating cash flow decide whether its discount is a bargain or a fair price. ## Sources 1. [FourWeekMBA, "Ibiden Plans 151 Billion Yen Investment, Above Annual Profit", 30 October 2026](https://fourweekmba.com/ai-ibiden-plans-151-billion-yen-investment-above-annual-profit/) 2. [VZ Vermögenszentrum (AWP), "Ibiden plans additional JPY 150 billion investment in Gama plant capacity expansion", 30 October 2026](https://www.vermoegenszentrum.ch/en/stock-exchange-and-markets/news/ibiden-plans-additional-jpy-150-billion-investment-gama-plant) 3. [ad-hoc-news.de, "AT&S stock: Infineon award highlights AI power-module technology", 30 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/at-und-s-stock-infineon-award-highlights-ai-power-module-technology/70433085) 4. [ad-hoc-news.de, "AT&S wins Infineon AI award while AT&S stock trades within its 52-week range", 29 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/at-und-s-wins-infineon-ai-award-while-at-und-s-stock-trades-within-its-52-week-range/70427243) 5. [Tech Times, "NVIDIA Commits $1.1 Billion to Chip Testing, Targets 15x Optics Capacity for Vera Rubin", 22 October 2026](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/329359/20261022/nvidia-commits-11-billion-chip-testing-targets-15x-optics-capacity-vera-rubin.htm) 6. [Yahoo Finance (GuruFocus), "Nvidia Targets AI's Biggest Bottlenecks With New Deals", 21 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/nvidia-targets-ais-biggest-bottlenecks-213834482.html) 7. [AT&S corporate news via EQS/ad-hoc-news.de, "AT&S expands Kulim site to support long-term customer demand and deepen strategic technology partnerships", 15 June 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/at-and-s-austria-technologie-and-systemtechnik-ag-at0000969985/69543973) 8. [ad-hoc-news.de, "Deutsche Bank raises target for AT&S stock from EUR 320.00 to EUR 380.00", 23 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/deutsche-bank-raises-target-for-at-und-s-stock-from-eur-320-00-to-eur-380-00/70397293) 9. [ad-hoc-news.de, "AT&S reports EUR 548.70 million revenue: AT&S stock costs EUR 157.80 below its EUR 380.00 target", 23 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/at-und-s-reports-eur-548-70-million-revenue-at-und-s-stock-costs-eur-157-80-below-its-eur-380-00/70391872) 10. [MarketScreener via zonebourse.com, "Finances AT&S - Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik Aktiengesellschaft", 30 October 2026](https://www.zonebourse.com/cours/action/AT-S-AUSTRIA-TECHNOLOGIE--6814931/finances/) 11. [Semiconductor Engineering, "Chip Industry Week In Review", 30 October 2026](https://semiengineering.com/chip-industry-week-in-review-162/) --- Ibiden says AI-server substrate demand grows 5.4 times by 2030, and its shares fell 15% anyway — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/ibiden-says-ai-server-substrate-demand-grows-5-4-times-by-2030-and-its-shares-fell-15-anyway