--- title: "OpenAI公布97.9% COBOL翻译成绩后,IBM交出首份季报:大型机降20%,计费软件增9%" description: "自OpenAI公布97.9%的COBOL翻译成绩以来,IBM交出首份季报,这场争论就此一分为二:大型机硬件收入下滑20%,但向银行收取运行数十年前交易代码费用的软件业务增长9%,IBM还上调了全年现金流预期。" publisher: "The Inference" section: "Platforms" published: 2026-10-21T21:20:40.014Z modified: 2026-10-21T21:20:40.014Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/ibm-s-first-quarter-since-openai-s-97-9-cobol-score-mainframe-down-20-billing-software-up-9/zh-CN language: zh-CN keywords: "IBM, Earnings, Mainframe, COBOL, OpenAI" --- # OpenAI公布97.9% COBOL翻译成绩后,IBM交出首份季报:大型机降20%,计费软件增9% > 自OpenAI公布97.9%的COBOL翻译成绩以来,IBM交出首份季报,这场争论就此一分为二:大型机硬件收入下滑20%,但向银行收取运行数十年前交易代码费用的软件业务增长9%,IBM还上调了全年现金流预期。 两天前,[OpenAI](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/openai)[宣称其GPT-6.1模型能翻译COBOL](https://theinference.org/article/openai-s-97-9-cobol-score-revives-the-promise-that-knocked-13-off-ibm-in-february),并称在该实验室自己的迁移测试中,翻译保真度达到97.9%[1]。这门诞生于上世纪60年代的语言,至今仍运行着银行和政府的交易系统。两天后,[IBM](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/ibm)交出了可以检验这场争论的首份季度答卷:营收增长5%,至171亿美元[2];盘后交易中,股价上涨约4%[3];公司还[上调了全年自由现金流预期](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ibm-releases-third-quarter-results-302915985.html),预计增加额超过10亿美元[2]。 ## 这轮恐慌,股价早有记录 2026年2月23日,OpenAI的竞争对手、AI实验室[Anthropic](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/anthropic)宣称,旗下Claude Code工具可以自动化COBOL现代化改造中的探索与分析工作——这类工作过去需要大批顾问投入。IBM股价当天[下跌13.2%,创2000年以来最大单日跌幅](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-stocks-ibm-posts-steepest-daily-drop-since-2000-after-anthropic-says-ai-can-modernize-cobol/articleshow/128738106.cms)[4]。 到6月2日,市场已推翻这一判断:IBM股价当天收于329.23美元,创历史新高[5]。随后是7月:业绩预警之后,股价[单日下跌25%,创有史以来最大单日跌幅](https://theinference.org/article/the-ai-buildout-wiped-68-billion-off-ibm-in-a-day-now-the-lawyers-want-to-know-why);第二季度[大型机收入下滑42%](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/ibm-lowers-full-year-forecast-after-earnings-warning/ar-AA28tdk1),全年增长指引降至4%至5%[5][6]。 *Chart: **营收增速曾在7月当季停滞于1%,今晚出现反弹** 2023年第三季度至2026年第三季度IBM各季度营收同比增速* *总营收同比增速,按IBM各季度财报整理;2026年三季度数据来自今日发布的财报。Z系列下滑42%的数据出自CNBC对7月当季的报道。 [3][6][8]* ## 逐条业务线看分歧 多空双方各拿到一列数据。实验室声称能够取代的大型机IBM Z,本季营收下滑20%[2]。靠运行老系统向银行计费的各条业务线却在增长:负责运行数十年历史交易代码的交易处理(Transaction Processing)软件同比增长9%,扭转了上季度意外下滑的势头;数据(Data)业务增长19%;IBM旗下的Linux与混合云软件部门红帽增长11%[2][3]。分布式基础设施(Distributed Infrastructure)是为AI数据中心供货的服务器产品线,本季大涨31%[2]。 IBM首席财务官詹姆斯·卡瓦诺(James Kavanaugh)表示,交易处理业务收入中约25%来自此前递延、本季终于成交的交易,其余75%为净新增业务[3]。他还将[IBM全年软件业务增速预期从6%至8%上调至7%至8%](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/ibm-raises-annual-software-revenue-outlook-as-deal-delays-ease/ar-AA2fLPH5)[3]。真正承接迁移工作的咨询业务营收持平[2]。如果银行真要撤离,这些计费业务线会最先失血。 *Chart: **IBM Z下滑20%,靠老代码向银行计费的业务线却在增长** IBM 2026年第三季度各产品线营收同比增速* *各业务线营收同比增速,来自IBM 2026年10月21日发布的第三季度财报 [2]* ## 两边生意,IBM都做 实验室声称能够“解放”的那些客户仍在付费,而IBM在反方论点上同样有钱可赚:它自研的COBOL转Java工具watsonx Code Assistant for Z,就部署在OpenAI模型想要清空的同一批存量系统里[1]。按经营口径计算的每股收益(Operating EPS)为2.95美元,好于市场预期的2.86美元;按美国通用会计准则(GAAP)计算的净利润为21.9亿美元,则不及预期的23.4亿美元[2][3][7]。现金流预期的上调,依据是财报新闻稿中所称的IBM内部生产力提升举措;卡瓦诺称,这些举措正在拉动利润和自由现金流增长[2]。 ## 电话会前,看空者握有哪些筹码 OpenAI的测试只覆盖孤立的程序;真正让银行迁移举步维艰的复制簿(copybook)、作业流(job stream)和CICS事务环境,都不在测试之列[1]。[高德纳(Gartner)](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/gartner)[预计,2026年启动的大型机退出项目中,超过70%将无法兑现预期收益](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/gpt-6-cracks-cobol-979-migration-accuracy-shifts-ai-bottleneck-from-code-to-enterprise/ar-AA2fI9cF)[1]。[摩根士丹利](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley)[则认为,大型机周期正处于艰难阶段,第四季度会更加难熬](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ibm-expected-to-post-higher-3q-profit-with-recovery-in-focus-earnings-preview-54bcf28e)[7]。 财报电话会将于美东时间今晚5点开始[2][2]。有两个看点:75%的净新增业务占比能否延续到第四季度[3];是否有银行把基准测试得分变成签字生效的大型机退出协议。在那之前,实打实的凭据仍握在IBM手里。 ## Takeaway COBOL恐慌尚未写进IBM的财报:大型机收入在周期性低谷中下滑20%,但向银行收取运行老代码费用的软件业务增长9%,其中75%为净新增业务;IBM还上调了全年现金流预期。 ## Sources 1. [Tech Times (via MSN), 'GPT-6 cracks COBOL: 97.9% migration accuracy shifts AI bottleneck from code to enterprise', 20 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/gpt-6-cracks-cobol-979-migration-accuracy-shifts-ai-bottleneck-from-code-to-enterprise/ar-AA2fI9cF) 2. [IBM press release via PR Newswire, 'IBM Releases Third-Quarter Results', 21 October 2026](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ibm-releases-third-quarter-results-302915985.html) 3. [Reuters (via MSN), 'IBM raises annual software revenue outlook as deal delays ease', 21 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/ibm-raises-annual-software-revenue-outlook-as-deal-delays-ease/ar-AA2fLPH5) 4. [Reuters via The Economic Times, 'US Stocks: IBM posts steepest daily drop since 2000 after Anthropic says AI can modernize COBOL', 23 February 2026](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-stocks-ibm-posts-steepest-daily-drop-since-2000-after-anthropic-says-ai-can-modernize-cobol/articleshow/128738106.cms) 5. [The Motley Fool, 'IBM Stock Fell 22% in the Third Quarter. History Says It's Usually Higher a Year Later', 5 October 2026](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/05/ibm-stock-fell-22-in-the-third-quarter-history-says-it-s-usually-higher-a-year-later/) 6. [CNBC (via MSN), 'IBM lowers full-year forecast after earnings warning', 22 July 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/ibm-lowers-full-year-forecast-after-earnings-warning/ar-AA28tdk1) 7. [MarketWatch, 'IBM Expected to Post Higher 3Q Profit With Recovery in Focus, Earnings Preview', 20 October 2026](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ibm-expected-to-post-higher-3q-profit-with-recovery-in-focus-earnings-preview-54bcf28e) 8. [IBM, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 21 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000051143) --- OpenAI公布97.9% COBOL翻译成绩后,IBM交出首份季报:大型机降20%,计费软件增9% — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/ibm-s-first-quarter-since-openai-s-97-9-cobol-score-mainframe-down-20-billing-software-up-9/zh-CN