--- title: "Indiana regulators approved AES's $1.3 billion Google data center plan; AES trades 0.67% under its $15 buyout" description: "Indiana regulators approved Google's $1.3 billion campus with a $47-a-year savings pitch for other customers, months after the governor fired their chairman over an AES rate hike. The structure is built for November's ballots and for FERC docket EC26-99, where the $33.4 billion buyout waits; the arb spread says the market already knows it." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Power" published: 2026-10-09T15:12:18.670Z modified: 2026-10-09T15:12:18.670Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/indiana-regulators-approved-aes-s-1-3-billion-google-data-center-plan-aes-trades-0-67-under-its-15-buyout language: en keywords: "Utilities, Data Centers, Regulation, Indiana, Mergers And Acquisitions" --- # Indiana regulators approved AES's $1.3 billion Google data center plan; AES trades 0.67% under its $15 buyout > Indiana regulators approved Google's $1.3 billion campus with a $47-a-year savings pitch for other customers, months after the governor fired their chairman over an AES rate hike. The structure is built for November's ballots and for FERC docket EC26-99, where the $33.4 billion buyout waits; the arb spread says the market already knows it. The vote took place on October 7: the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission, unanimously, [approved AES Indiana's plan to power Google's 390-megawatt data center campus near Monrovia](https://www.ibj.com/articles/iurc-approves-aes-plan-to-power-google-data-center-in-morgan-co) [1]. Every big number in the order runs the same direction. AES puts the total cost at $1.3 billion, with Google funding 100 percent of the energy, generation, transmission and infrastructure costs, against the 80 percent Indiana law demands of large loads [1]. The utility says other customers come out $770 million ahead over 15 years, more than $700 for the average household, about $47 a year [1]. The comparison point is concrete: NiSource's NIPSCO Generation, the Indiana blueprint regulators and analysts keep pointing to, [ring-fences its Amazon and Google contracts for about $1.4 billion of customer savings over 15 years](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2026/10/utilities-feeling-election-season-heat-as-data-center-opposition-mounts-106022959) [3]. ## The ruling reads like it was written for November That precision is the tell. Commissioner Joby Jarrells spelled it out in the order: "This is above and beyond the requirement. This satisfies the requirement and is substantially consistent with President Trump's Ratepayer Protection Pledge. This is why I will be voting to approve the Order." [1] Governor Mike Braun demoted then fired IURC Chairman Andy Zay after the commission approved [a $71 million AES Indiana rate increase](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/aes) he opposed; Zay sued, and settled with the state for $625,000 in August [3]. The same month, Governor Abigail Spanberger intervened in Dominion's $67.4 billion sale, and the utilities trade group says data centers have "shifted more quickly than almost any issue" in politics [3]. With 36 states electing governors on affordability, AES [sent customers an email the same day as the ruling](https://old.reddit.com/r/indianapolis/comments/1x0d0is/email_from_aes_re_google_dc/): "Google will pay 100% of the costs. AES Indiana won't pay for the power plants, substations, transmission lines" [6]. ## The math underneath is not settled Five lawmakers led by Senator Elizabeth Warren [asked FERC on September 28 to reject the $33.4 billion AES buyout](https://theinference.org/article/five-lawmakers-ask-ferc-to-kill-the-33-4-billion-aes-buyout-over-its-return-math) over its return math: buyers who underwrite at 15 to 20 percent purchased a business that historically earns 10 [4]. Their failure case: "if a data center fails, customers may continue paying for the unnecessary upgrades via increased utility bills" [4] — and the 390-megawatt campus, $1.3 billion of plants, substations and transmission, is exactly the upgrade class they mean. AES has [spent more on plant than operations generated in all ten quarters through June 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000874761), including $1.64 billion of capex against $1.05 billion of operating cash flow last quarter [9]. *Chart: **AES capex has outrun operating cash in all ten quarters since early 2024** Line chart of AES quarterly capital spending versus operating cash flow, Q1 2024 through Q2 2026, showing capex above operating cash flow in every quarter* *Quarterly capital spending versus operating cash flow, USD billions, fiscal quarters ended March 2024 through June 2026, from AES's SEC filings, retrieved October 9, 2026. [9]* ## The tape has already voted [AES closed October 5 at $14.90, 0.67 percent under the $15 cash offer](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/lawmakers-challenge-aes-sale-aes-corp-stock-sits-15-58-percent-below-its-high/70242270), a market pricing FERC approval as near-certain against a 52-week low of $13.21 [5]. If docket EC26-99 kills the deal, the gap re-anchors low; if it approves, the buyers take 390 megawatts of Google load plus [650 megawatts of Meta solar contracts](https://www.energyonline.com/Industry/News.aspx?NewsID=36237) as the growth they paid for [7]. Watch two dated gates: the parties expect the sale to close in late 2026 or early 2027, pending FERC, which gives the 0.67 percent spread its clock [4][5], and Indiana's rehearing on that $71 million increase, set for March 2027 [4]. ## Takeaway Indiana's unanimous approval shows the template utilities now campaign on: Google funds 100 percent of a $1.3 billion campus and other customers get a $47-a-year savings pitch, all aimed at November's ballots and a FERC docket where the $33.4 billion AES buyout waits; the 0.67 percent arb spread says the market expects approval. ## Sources 1. [Indianapolis Business Journal, IURC approves AES plan to power Google data center in Morgan County, 8 October 2026](https://www.ibj.com/articles/iurc-approves-aes-plan-to-power-google-data-center-in-morgan-co) 3. [S&P Global Market Intelligence, Utilities feeling election season heat as data center opposition mounts, October 2026](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2026/10/utilities-feeling-election-season-heat-as-data-center-opposition-mounts-106022959) 4. [The Inference, Five lawmakers ask FERC to kill the $33.4 billion AES buyout over its return math, 1 October 2026](https://theinference.org/article/five-lawmakers-ask-ferc-to-kill-the-33-4-billion-aes-buyout-over-its-return-math) 5. [AD HOC NEWS, Lawmakers challenge AES sale: AES Corp stock sits 15.58 percent below its high, 7 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/lawmakers-challenge-aes-sale-aes-corp-stock-sits-15-58-percent-below-its-high/70242270) 6. [r/indianapolis, Email from AES re Google DC, 8 October 2026](https://old.reddit.com/r/indianapolis/comments/1x0d0is/email_from_aes_re_google_dc/) 7. [LCG Consulting EnergyOnline, AES and Meta Announce PPAs to Provide 650 MW of Solar Capacity for Data Centers, 2026](https://www.energyonline.com/Industry/News.aspx?NewsID=36237) 9. [AES Corporation quarterly figures from its SEC filings (capex and operating cash flow), retrieved 9 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000874761) --- Indiana regulators approved AES's $1.3 billion Google data center plan; AES trades 0.67% under its $15 buyout — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/indiana-regulators-approved-aes-s-1-3-billion-google-data-center-plan-aes-trades-0-67-under-its-15-buyout