--- title: "Indonesia gives Freeport-McMoRan an eight-month export permit as its Q3 beat leans on price, not volume" description: "Freeport-McMoRan topped third-quarter estimates with revenue of $7.55 billion even as Indonesian copper sales fell 23 percent, and Jakarta's new export permit keeps the world's second-largest copper mine on an eight-month leash." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Economy" published: 2026-10-27T15:41:03.331Z modified: 2026-10-27T15:41:03.331Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/indonesia-gives-freeport-mcmoran-an-eight-month-export-permit-as-its-q3-beat-leans-on-price-not-volume language: en keywords: "Freeport McMoRan, Copper, Earnings, Indonesia, Commodities" --- # Indonesia gives Freeport-McMoRan an eight-month export permit as its Q3 beat leans on price, not volume > Freeport-McMoRan topped third-quarter estimates with revenue of $7.55 billion even as Indonesian copper sales fell 23 percent, and Jakarta's new export permit keeps the world's second-largest copper mine on an eight-month leash. ## Jakarta reopened the export valve, for eight months Indonesia has granted [Freeport-McMoRan](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/freeport-mcmoran)'s local unit a [temporary mining license to resume concentrate exports from Grasberg](https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/indonesia-allows-exports-freeport-mine-stop-gap-deal), the world's second-largest copper mine, after a stoppage of roughly 12 weeks [1]. The permit runs eight months from February, when Freeport was first offered a special mining license allowing shipments of 1.1 million metric tons of concentrate over 12 months [1]. Talks on converting the contract long term, with its demands for majority local ownership, continue; Indonesia's rules require 51 percent domestic ownership by year ten, and Jakarta holds 9.36 percent today [1]. ## The quarter beat on price while volume stayed underground Freeport reported [third-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.88 a share](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/freeport-beats-q3-estimates-higher-125246075.html) on Tuesday, beating the $0.80 analysts expected; before the print Wall Street had already [lifted quarterly estimates to $0.78](https://www.webull.ca/news-detail/15802551610101760), a 56 percent year-over-year jump [5] [3]. Revenue reached $7.55 billion, ahead of the $7.36 billion consensus [5]. Copper sales of 749 million pounds fell 23 percent from 977 million a year ago as Indonesian operations ran at lower rates during the Grasberg recovery, and gold sales of 105,000 ounces missed even the reduced July plan of 160,000 after 60,000 ounces were deferred into the fourth quarter [5] [6]. Realized copper averaged $6.54 a pound, which covered the hole [5]. *Chart: **Price, not volume: revenue rose 8% in a quarter when copper sales fell 23%** Grouped columns of Freeport-McMoRan quarterly revenue and net income from Q3 2024 through Q3 2026, showing net income rising even as Indonesian copper sales fell.* *Freeport-McMoRan quarterly revenue and net income, US dollars in billions, Q3 2024 through Q3 2026, from SEC filings; Q3 2026 figures as reported October 27, 2026. [11]* ## The rally priced a squeeze, then the landlord showed up The trade worked all year: Freeport is [up 26.9 percent in 2026 and copper futures 15.2 percent](https://x.com/mining/status/2113752324439179702), with futures at $6.60 a pound on October 26 [4] [2]. But copper has dropped more than seven percent from its February highs as disruptions eased, and this month's license decision shows why: the rally partly priced Freeport's own export halt, which Jakarta controls [1]. Even a clean quarter leaves the company reporting at the government's pleasure. ## The counterpoint: the volume is coming back The bull case delivered in Q4 guidance of 875 million pounds of copper and 300,000 ounces of gold sales, full-year unit cash costs of $1.90 a pound and roughly $8.5 billion of operating cash flow; [the February memorandum extends Grasberg rights to 2041](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4553865-freeport-signs-agreement-with-indonesia-to-extend-grasberg-mining-rights-through-2041) in exchange for another 12 percent state stake [5] [8]. Deferral is not denial. ## What settles it next Watch how fast concentrates actually move under the eight-month permit, whether the deferred gold lands in Q4 sales, and whether Jakarta's long-term conversion talks demand more than the February terms. The rally priced copper's scarcity; the license prices Freeport's permission. ## Takeaway Freeport's Q3 beat came from $6.54 copper, not tonnage: Indonesian sales fell 23 percent, and Jakarta's eight-month export permit keeps the mine on a leash while conversion talks continue. ## Sources 1. [The Edge Malaysia, Indonesia allows exports from Freeport mine in stop-gap deal, 27 October 2026](https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/indonesia-allows-exports-freeport-mine-stop-gap-deal) 2. [Investing.com, Freeport-McMoran earnings set to test cost control in copper rally, 26 October 2026](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/freeportmcmoran-earnings-set-to-test-cost-control-in-copper-rally-93CH-4973125) 3. [Simply Wall St via Webull, Should Earnings Estimate Hike Require Action From Freeport McMoRan Investors?, 24 October 2026](https://www.webull.ca/news-detail/15802551610101760) 4. [@mining on X, copper producers vs the broader market in 2026, 25 October 2026](https://x.com/mining/status/2113752324439179702) 5. [Yahoo Finance, Freeport beats Q3 estimates on higher copper, gold prices, 27 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/freeport-beats-q3-estimates-higher-125246075.html) 6. [Seeking Alpha, Freeport-McMoRan hits Q3 copper targets; copper futures head for weekly loss, 2 October 2026](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4649829-freeport-mcmoran-hits-q3-copper-targets-copper-futures-head-for-weekly-loss) 8. [Seeking Alpha, Freeport signs agreement with Indonesia to extend Grasberg mining rights through 2041, 19 February 2026](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4553865-freeport-signs-agreement-with-indonesia-to-extend-grasberg-mining-rights-through-2041) 11. [Freeport-McMoRan, quarterly revenue and net income from SEC filings, retrieved 27 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000831259) --- Indonesia gives Freeport-McMoRan an eight-month export permit as its Q3 beat leans on price, not volume — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/indonesia-gives-freeport-mcmoran-an-eight-month-export-permit-as-its-q3-beat-leans-on-price-not-volume