---
title: "Intel beats and guides December down on memory costs, and the stock falls more than 20% after hours"
description: "Intel beat September estimates and grew data-center revenue 78%, then guided December to $15 to $16 billion against a $17 billion consensus; a stock that had more than doubled fell more than 20% after hours. The AI buildout's memory bill has arrived inside a mega-cap's guidance."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Chips"
published: 2026-10-29T21:19:24.475Z
modified: 2026-10-29T21:19:24.475Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/intel-beats-and-guides-december-down-on-memory-costs-and-the-stock-falls-more-than-20-after-hours
language: en
keywords: "Intel, Earnings, Semiconductors, Memory, Guidance"
---

# Intel beats and guides December down on memory costs, and the stock falls more than 20% after hours

> Intel beat September estimates and grew data-center revenue 78%, then guided December to $15 to $16 billion against a $17 billion consensus; a stock that had more than doubled fell more than 20% after hours. The AI buildout's memory bill has arrived inside a mega-cap's guidance.

[Intel](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/intel) beat the September quarter and guided December down anyway. Revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, adjusted earnings of 52 cents cleared a 40-cent estimate, and data center and AI revenue grew 78% [1]. December is the problem: [guidance of $15 billion to $16 billion in revenue](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-29/intel-outlook-hurt-by-weak-market-for-personal-computer-chips) against a $17.07 billion consensus, 25 cents of earnings against 43 cents, and gross margin stepping down from 43% to 38% [1][2]. The shares, up more than 100% this year, fell more than 20% in extended trading [2][3].

*Chart: **Two breakout quarters, then a December guide back toward $15 billion** Line chart of Intel's quarterly revenue from the September 2023 quarter through the September 2026 quarter, mostly between $12.7 billion and $15.4 billion, jumping to $16.1 billion and then $16.5 billion in the two most recent quarters, with the December 2026 quarter guided down to about $15.5 billion.*

*Intel quarterly revenue, fiscal quarters, in billions of dollars, from its SEC filings. The December 2026 quarter is drawn at the midpoint of company guidance of $15 to $16 billion. Intel SEC filings; guidance per Bloomberg. [9][1]*

## Memory prices are the mechanism

The cause is the AI buildout's appetite for memory. Samsung, [SK Hynix](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/sk-hynix) and [Micron](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/micron) have shifted wafer capacity into high-bandwidth memory for AI accelerators, which consumes roughly three times the silicon per gigabyte of laptop DRAM [4][5]. [Contract prices for LPDDR5X, the memory in most laptops, jumped 89% in the second quarter](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/328672/20261006/intel-cpu-prices-climbed-30-because-ai-seized-global-memory-production.htm), and [HP](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/hp) now puts memory at about 35% of a laptop's cost [4].

## The PC slump runs through at least 2027

PC shipments fell 4% in that quarter, Counterpoint Research estimates, and TrendForce says [PC makers have hit the limit of what they will pay for memory](https://thenextweb.com/news/intel-q3-2026-outlook-pc-slump-memory-shortage) [3][6]. Intel projects the PC market down 12% this year and 10% more in 2027, a slump chief financial officer [David Zinsner](https://theinference.org/markets/people/david-zinsner) sees running at least through the first half of 2027 [1][3]. "In 2027 it is going to be a very severe issue to all of us," chief executive [Lip-Bu Tan](https://theinference.org/markets/people/lip-bu-tan) said [1].

## The shortage pays SK Hynix and charges Intel

A day earlier, SK Hynix [posted quarterly revenue of about $78 billion, up 328%](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/28/sk-hynix-says-memory-is-sold-out-through-2029-micron-is-a-winner-too/), with about $62 billion of operating profit, and said its output is effectively sold out through 2029, with shortage projected through 2030 [5]. Intel pays from both pockets.

Client computing, nearly half its revenue, fell 5% to $8.1 billion, roughly $0.9 billion below estimates [1][2]. The data center unit left demand unfilled for lack of raw materials and after [an October explosion at its Kiryat Gat fab in Israel](https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/other/intel-forecast-disappoints-as-israel-fab-blast-pc-weakness-weigh/ar-AA2gmkxe), worth about $300 million of December revenue and 200 basis points of margin [1][2].

The AI buildout grew Intel's fastest business by 78% and then billed it through the PC market the buildout itself is shrinking.

*Chart: **Intel's AI side grew 78% in Q3 while its PC base shrank 5%** Bar chart of Intel's Q3 2026 year-over-year revenue growth by segment: data center and AI up 78%, foundry up 58%, total company up 21%, client computing down 5%.*

*Year-over-year revenue growth by Intel reporting segment, fiscal third quarter 2026, ended September 26, in percent. Bloomberg; 24/7 Wall St. [1][8]*

## Server demand against a shrinking PC base

The bull case is intact: that data center growth was Intel's best in 15 years, foundry revenue rose 58% and is still loss-making, [Oracle](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/oracle) committed this week to deploying next-generation Xeon processors, and the demand side is funded by quarters like [Amazon](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/amazon)'s [$75.9 billion of capital spending](https://www.tmtbreakout.com/p/amazon-amz-intel-intc-first-take) [3][7][8].

Either way, memory costs have moved from supplier earnings into a mega-cap's guidance. Zinsner expects a similar fab hit in the first quarter [2]. [AMD](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/amd) reports next week and [Nvidia](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nvidia) in mid-November [3]; the tell is whether server demand outruns a PC base that memory prices keep shrinking [1].

## Takeaway

Intel's beat and 78% data-center growth could not survive a December guide of $15 to $16 billion against $17.07 billion consensus: memory costs now sit inside a mega-cap's numbers, and AMD and Nvidia report next, with their server demand the tell.

## Sources

1. [Bloomberg, Ian King: Intel Plunges After PC Slump and Supply Snags Hurt Its Outlook, 29 October 2026](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-29/intel-outlook-hurt-by-weak-market-for-personal-computer-chips)
2. [Reuters (via MSN), Anhata Rooprai and Max A. Cherney: Intel forecast disappoints as Israel fab blast, PC weakness weigh, 29 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/other/intel-forecast-disappoints-as-israel-fab-blast-pc-weakness-weigh/ar-AA2gmkxe)
3. [CNBC, Katie Tarasov: Intel stock plunges 20% as chipmaker blames PC slowdown for weak guidance, 29 October 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/29/intel-intc-q3-earnings-report-2026-.html)
4. [Tech Times, Edward Northmore: Intel CPU Prices Climbed 30% Because AI Seized Global Memory Production, 6 October 2026](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/328672/20261006/intel-cpu-prices-climbed-30-because-ai-seized-global-memory-production.htm)
5. [The Motley Fool, Patrick Sanders: SK Hynix Says Memory Is Sold Out Through 2029. Micron Is a Winner, Too, 28 October 2026](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/28/sk-hynix-says-memory-is-sold-out-through-2029-micron-is-a-winner-too/)
6. [The Next Web, Ana-Maria Stanciuc: Intel shares sink as memory shortage drags its PC chip outlook, 29 October 2026](https://thenextweb.com/news/intel-q3-2026-outlook-pc-slump-memory-shortage)
7. [TMT Breakout: Amazon (AMZ) Intel (INTC) First Take, 29 October 2026](https://www.tmtbreakout.com/p/amazon-amz-intel-intc-first-take)
8. [24/7 Wall St.: Intel Q3 2026: Data Center Revenue Surges 78%, but Q4 Faces a Step Down, 29 October 2026](https://247wallst.com/cards/intel-q3-2026-earnings-intc-01m64mq6hr4b53vvv67fkcadph)
9. [Intel, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 29 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000050863)


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Intel beats and guides December down on memory costs, and the stock falls more than 20% after hours — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/intel-beats-and-guides-december-down-on-memory-costs-and-the-stock-falls-more-than-20-after-hours