--- title: "Investors cut ASM International 8.6% on a China scare; its Oct. 27 report tests a €1.1 billion quarter" description: "A China memory scare and a hot US inflation print knocked chip-equipment maker ASM International down 8.6% in a day. But its revenue rises with the films a fab stacks on each wafer, and its first plasma-enhanced chemical vapour deposition (PECVD) film is already in volume production, with all major chipmakers engaged." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Markets" published: 2026-10-20T17:04:38.683Z modified: 2026-10-20T17:04:38.683Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/investors-cut-asm-international-8-6-on-a-china-scare-its-oct-27-report-tests-a-1-1-billion-quarter language: en keywords: "Semiconductors, Chip Equipment, China, Earnings Preview, Memory" --- # Investors cut ASM International 8.6% on a China scare; its Oct. 27 report tests a €1.1 billion quarter > A China memory scare and a hot US inflation print knocked chip-equipment maker ASM International down 8.6% in a day. But its revenue rises with the films a fab stacks on each wafer, and its first plasma-enhanced chemical vapour deposition (PECVD) film is already in volume production, with all major chipmakers engaged. The October selloff priced ASM International on the wrong variable. Investors sold the Dutch chip-equipment maker as if Chinese wafer capacity were its business, but its revenue rises with the number of films a chip fab stacks on each wafer. The stock [fell 8.6% on October 15](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/us-inflation-hits-asm-international-stock-as-october-15-selloff-deepens/70338394) after a hotter-than-expected US inflation reading dragged chip stocks down across Europe [1]. The fear had a name and a date. On October 16, De Belegger, a Dutch investor newsletter, [ran a headline](https://www.debelegger.nl/post/cxmt-angst-raakt-asm-dat-juist-leeft-van-meer-chiplagen) that has not traveled: "CXMT fear hits ASM, which lives off more chip layers" [4]. On October 19 came confirmation from the fear's own subject: [ChangXin Memory Technologies](https://theinference.org/article/naura-pays-405-million-yuan-for-a-loss-making-chip-stacking-toolmaker-huawei-and-cxmt-build-on-the-step) (CXMT), the Hefei-based maker of DRAM, the workhorse memory chip, said [quarterly revenue had surged nearly 600% year on year](https://daily.semidoped.com/p/daily-update-october-19th-2026) [2]. That surge hands CXMT roughly a tenth of the world DRAM market [2]. Its own shares still fell 7.8% on the result, on margin and yield worries [2]. The same day ASM closed at €747.60, almost a third below its 52-week high [3]. ## Fewer wafers can still mean more machines ASM sells the tools, chiefly atomic layer deposition, that lay films on a wafer one layer at a time. A fab that runs fewer wafers can still need more of these tools, because every 3D chip generation adds layers to each wafer. The record fits the layer mechanism better than the fear. Revenue dipped with China in late 2025, rebuilt to a record quarter by mid-2026, and [guidance points the September quarter higher still](https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2026-07/69146560-asm-international-nv-asm-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-399.htm) [5][8][9]. *Chart: **Revenue dipped with China in late 2025 and has stepped up to a guided record** Column chart of ASM International quarterly revenue from Q2 2025 through Q3 2026 guidance, showing the dip in late 2025 and the climb to record levels.* *Quarterly revenue in EUR millions; the final bar is ASM's guidance for Q3 2026, marked as an estimate. Sources: ASM Q2 2026 results release; Q4 2025 and Q3 2025 earnings-call reports. [5][8][9]* ## A film that deletes process steps A second way to sell layers [went on sale on September 22](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/asm-launches-breakthrough-flowable-carbon-140000843.html) [7]. XP8 Vertos Flowable Carbon is the market's first flowable carbon film made by plasma-enhanced chemical vapour deposition, or PECVD, a method for growing films out of a gas [7]. The material flows into a trench, fills it from the bottom and levels its own surface, so the polishing and etch-back steps that followed a conventional fill can be dropped in some flows [7][6]. In a manufacturing flow that can run to a thousand steps, every step removed is defect risk removed. "Given today's age of AI, output and yield are king," Tyler Sample, who runs ASM's PECVD product unit, told [EE Times](https://www.eetimes.com/beyond-lithography-3d-scaling-puts-new-demands-on-materials/) [6]. He says the film is already in high-volume production, with all major chipmakers engaged [6]. It already fills 3D NAND, the flash memory stacked in vertical layers, at aspect ratios up to 200 to one, a trench 200 times taller than it is wide [6]. Sample says the development began roughly six or seven years ago [6]. That work puts ASM inside a PECVD market owned by the incumbents, [Applied Materials](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/applied-materials) and [Lam Research](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/lam-research) [6]. ## October 27 prices the layer count The quarterly report on October 27 is the first test of whether the new business shows up in money [3]. Guidance stands at €1.1 billion for the September quarter, after a record second quarter [5]. Management already expects 2027 revenue above the top of the range it set for that year [5]. The China risk is real and not new. A year ago ASM told investors to expect [Chinese sales down by double digits this year](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVS.HM/earnings/AVS.HM-Q3-2025-earnings_call-357033.html), and it guides mature-logic sales below the first half [9][5]. The PECVD business cannot be sized from outside: ASM stopped publishing quarterly bookings this year and discloses sales by end market, not by film [8]. So the October 27 report turns on two lines: what ASM says about China, and whether flowable carbon or PECVD gets a mention [3]. If [the China line](https://theinference.org/article/acm-research-s-2-5-billion-backlog-comes-with-fine-print-and-an-october-28-test) holds and PECVD appears, the gap back to the €1,092.50 high is the trade [3]. If China goes quiet, UBS's target, 77% above the price, is a warning rather than a promise [3]. ## Takeaway The 8.6% selloff priced ASM International on Chinese wafer volumes, but its business scales with the films stacked on each wafer; the October 27 report turns on the China line and whether flowable carbon shows up in the money. ## Sources 1. [ad-hoc-news.de, US inflation hits ASM International stock as October 15 selloff deepens, 17 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/us-inflation-hits-asm-international-stock-as-october-15-selloff-deepens/70338394) 2. [Semi Doped, Daily Update - October 19th, 2026, 19 October 2026](https://daily.semidoped.com/p/daily-update-october-19th-2026) 3. [ad-hoc-news.de, ASM stock: UBS lifts target for ASM stock to EUR 1,325.00, 20 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/asm-stock-ubs-lifts-target-for-asm-stock-to-eur-1-325-00/70363772) 4. [De Belegger, CXMT-angst raakt ASM, dat juist leeft van meer chiplagen, 16 October 2026](https://www.debelegger.nl/post/cxmt-angst-raakt-asm-dat-juist-leeft-van-meer-chiplagen) 5. [ASM International via GlobeNewswire/Finanznachrichten, ASM reports second quarter 2026 results, 28 July 2026](https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2026-07/69146560-asm-international-nv-asm-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-399.htm) 6. [EE Times, Beyond Lithography: 3D Scaling Puts New Demands on Materials, 14 October 2026](https://www.eetimes.com/beyond-lithography-3d-scaling-puts-new-demands-on-materials/) 7. [ASM International via Yahoo Finance, ASM launches breakthrough Flowable Carbon technology, 22 September 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/asm-launches-breakthrough-flowable-carbon-140000843.html) 8. [TipRanks via The Globe and Mail, ASM International Eyes 2026 Upswing After Record Year, 5 March 2026](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/ASMIY/pressreleases/597003/asm-international-eyes-2026-upswing-after-record-year/) 9. [Yahoo Finance, ASM International Q3 FY2025 earnings call transcript, 29 October 2025](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVS.HM/earnings/AVS.HM-Q3-2025-earnings_call-357033.html) --- Investors cut ASM International 8.6% on a China scare; its Oct. 27 report tests a €1.1 billion quarter — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/investors-cut-asm-international-8-6-on-a-china-scare-its-oct-27-report-tests-a-1-1-billion-quarter