---
title: "IREN is down 13.5% in two sessions on the FT's recount of OpenAI's revenue; 16 Buy ratings still see $81.13"
description: "The FT's recount of OpenAI's annualized revenue, near $50 billion rather than the near-$70 billion in circulation, knocked 13.5% off IREN in two sessions. Outage claims now sit under the British Columbia sites behind IREN's GPU debt, and 16 Buy ratings point at $81.13 from a $35.71 tape."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Money"
published: 2026-10-09T17:21:27.765Z
modified: 2026-10-09T17:21:27.765Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/iren-is-down-13-5-in-two-sessions-on-the-ft-s-recount-of-openai-s-revenue-16-buy-ratings-still-see-81-13
language: en
keywords: "IREN, OpenAI, Neoclouds, GPU Debt, Data Centers, Selloff"
---

# IREN is down 13.5% in two sessions on the FT's recount of OpenAI's revenue; 16 Buy ratings still see $81.13

> The FT's recount of OpenAI's annualized revenue, near $50 billion rather than the near-$70 billion in circulation, knocked 13.5% off IREN in two sessions. Outage claims now sit under the British Columbia sites behind IREN's GPU debt, and 16 Buy ratings point at $81.13 from a $35.71 tape.

## Two sessions, minus 13.5 percent

[IREN](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/iren) [closed at $35.71 on October 8, down 7.7% on 54.3 million shares](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-iren-nasdaq-iren-stock-falls-77-should-you-sell-2026-10-08/), after a 6.27% fall the session before [1][2]. The afternoon catalyst was [a Financial Times report](https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/10/62257827/iren-stock-tumbles-on-openai-revenue-report) that [OpenAI](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/openai)'s annualized revenue runs near $50 billion, roughly $20 billion under the near-$70 billion figure in circulation since late September [3]. The semiconductor index slid from -1.7% to -3.4% within fifteen minutes and did not recover [4].

## The gap is accounting. The repricing was not.

OpenAI books revenue net of cloud partners; the bigger number was a gross figure investors built to compare with [Anthropic](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/anthropic), and two-month growth runs about 70% on either basis [3][4][5]. Credit did not wait for the reconciliation: [Nvidia](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nvidia)-backed [Firmus postponed a float of as much as $5.5 billion](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/firmus-misfire-casts-shadow-data-205345691.html), [the neocloud ETF holding IREN fell 7.2% the same day](https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/10/62250665/bitcoin-slide-meets-rising-bond-yields-neoclouds-get-hit-from-both-sides), and the 10-year Treasury yield sits at its highest level since 2002 [6][7].

## What the silicon costs to finance

Under its $9.7 billion [Microsoft](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/microsoft) contract, IREN must spend $5.8 billion on chips and $3 billion on other costs, with $3.7 billion of chip financing lined up; Blue Owl led a $2.4 billion package behind its Canadian campus [7]. Fiscal 2027 carries [$25 billion to $30 billion of capex against $14 billion named](https://theinference.org/article/sold-out-through-2026-iren-can-name-14-billion-of-a-30-billion-build), and customers prepay 45% to 55% of GPU capex, a stack that holds while the contracts hold [8]. The coupon ladder prices exactly what a signature buys [9][10].

*Chart: **GPU debt costs 6.78% with rated offtakers and 9.95% without** Bar chart of fixed coupons on four GPU-backed financings from September and October 2026: Lambda 6.78%, CleanSpark 7.875%, IREN's Mackenzie facility 9%, SharonAI 9.95%*

*Fixed coupons on GPU-backed financings, September to October 2026. IREN's rate is the fixed coupon on its $2.4 billion Mackenzie GPU facility; comparators are the Lambda insurer loan, CleanSpark secured notes and the SharonAI GPU loan. [9][10]*

The market charges IREN 222 basis points more than [Lambda](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/lambda) for the same Nvidia silicon, and the difference is two rated signatures [9][10].

## The sites under the collateral

SemiAnalysis, citing user reports, [flagged multi-day power outages at Prince George and Mackenzie in British Columbia](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/iren-stock-fell-6-day-125047090.html), called them [the worst sites in the industry](https://theinference.org/article/semianalysis-calls-iren-s-old-sites-the-industry-s-worst-the-street-s-median-target-is-80), and asked IREN to stop calling its service managed cloud; the company has not answered publicly [2][10]. Co-CEO Daniel Roberts said in August that the remaining capacity there "is targeted for the December quarter" [10]. IREN has missed consensus EBITDA in four straight quarters, June's $19.2 million landing 54% under estimate, and JonesTrading's Kevin Dede counts Microsoft as its only investment-grade customer [10].

*Chart: **EBITDA swung from a $443 million peak to a $384 million loss over three quarters** Column chart of IREN quarterly revenue and EBITDA from the September 2024 quarter to the June 2026 quarter, with revenue rising to $159 million in September 2025 before falling to $95 million in June 2026 and EBITDA swinging from a $443 million high to a $384 million loss.*

*IREN quarterly revenue and EBITDA from its SEC filings, September 2024 quarter to June 2026 quarter, in US dollars. The September 2025 quarter's $443 million EBITDA peak was Bitcoin-led; June 2026's $19.2 million figure was 54% under consensus. Source: IREN SEC filings, retrieved 9 October 2026. [12]*

## Sixteen Buys against the tape

Consensus still carries 16 Buy ratings and an $81.13 average target, against debt-to-equity of 1.80 and a beta of 4.26 [1]. OpenAI answered on Friday with [a promise of at least $70 billion net by December 31](https://theinference.org/article/openai-promises-a-70-billion-net-revenue-run-rate-by-december-31-oracle-and-coreweave-lend-against-it), delivered while raising $30 billion [5]. Retail leaned the same way: a 13,900-vote poll on the selloff asked holders whether they were buying, holding or selling, and the messages beneath it ran to dip-buying [11].

## November 5, then December 31

The next print is expected around November 5, with consensus near $65 million of EBITDA, more than triple June's [10]. Behind it sit the $8 billion of still-targeted financing and the renewal decisions of British Columbia's renters [8][10]. December brings the number OpenAI's lenders now price against [5].

## Takeaway

A $20 billion accounting gap at OpenAI repriced IREN in two sessions, and the outage claims now landing on its British Columbia sites test the collateral behind $3.7 billion of GPU financing while 16 Buy ratings hold at $81.13.

## Sources

1. [MarketBeat, "IREN (NASDAQ:IREN) Stock Falls 7.7% - Should You Sell?", 8 October 2026](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-iren-nasdaq-iren-stock-falls-77-should-you-sell-2026-10-08/)
2. [CoinCentral, "IREN Stock Drops 8% After Report Flags Power Outages at Key Sites", 9 October 2026](https://coincentral.com/iren-stock-drops-8-after-report-flags-power-outages-at-key-sites/)
3. [Benzinga, "IREN Stock Tumbles on OpenAI Revenue Report", 8 October 2026](https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/10/62257827/iren-stock-tumbles-on-openai-revenue-report)
4. [TMT Breakout, "TMTB EOD Wrap: The Great Gross-to-Net Panic of 2026", 8 October 2026](https://www.tmtbreakout.com/p/tmtb-eod-wrap-the-great-gross-to)
5. [The Inference, "OpenAI promises a $70 billion net revenue run rate by December 31; Oracle and CoreWeave lend against it", 9 October 2026](https://theinference.org/article/openai-promises-a-70-billion-net-revenue-run-rate-by-december-31-oracle-and-coreweave-lend-against-it)
6. [Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, "Firmus Misfire Casts Shadow on Data Center IPOs in the Pipeline", 8 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/firmus-misfire-casts-shadow-data-205345691.html)
7. [Benzinga, "Bitcoin Slide Meets 5.7% Bond Yields: Neoclouds Get Hit From Both Sides", 8 October 2026](https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/10/62250665/bitcoin-slide-meets-rising-bond-yields-neoclouds-get-hit-from-both-sides)
8. [The Inference, "Sold out through 2026, IREN can name $14 billion of a $30 billion build", 3 October 2026](https://theinference.org/article/sold-out-through-2026-iren-can-name-14-billion-of-a-30-billion-build)
9. [The Inference, "Lambda sells insurers $1 billion of GPU debt at 6.78% for 30,000 Nvidia chips", 3 October 2026](https://theinference.org/article/lambda-sells-insurers-1-billion-of-gpu-debt-at-6-78-for-30-000-nvidia-chips)
10. [Yahoo Finance, "IREN Stock Fell 6% in a Day After SemiAnalysis Flagged Its Canadian Sites", 8 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/iren-stock-fell-6-day-125047090.html)
11. [Stocktwits, IREN (NASDAQ:IREN) symbol feed, sentiment poll and messages, 9 October 2026](https://stocktwits.com/symbol/IREN)
12. [IREN, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 9 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001878848)


---

IREN is down 13.5% in two sessions on the FT's recount of OpenAI's revenue; 16 Buy ratings still see $81.13 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/iren-is-down-13-5-in-two-sessions-on-the-ft-s-recount-of-openai-s-revenue-16-buy-ratings-still-see-81-13