---
title: "Iron Mountain's raised 2026 forecast still sits below Wall Street's $8.04 billion"
description: "A record leasing quarter, a 15% dividend increase and a lifted outlook, and the shares still fell 8.1%: the raised forecast lands below the street. The question for AI-infrastructure money is what a signed megawatt backlog is worth before it starts billing."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Data Center"
published: 2026-11-09T15:19:28.815Z
modified: 2026-11-09T15:19:28.815Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/iron-mountain-s-raised-2026-forecast-still-sits-below-wall-street-s-8-04-billion
language: en
keywords: "Iron Mountain, Data Centers, Guidance, Earnings, REITs"
---

# Iron Mountain's raised 2026 forecast still sits below Wall Street's $8.04 billion

> A record leasing quarter, a 15% dividend increase and a lifted outlook, and the shares still fell 8.1%: the raised forecast lands below the street. The question for AI-infrastructure money is what a signed megawatt backlog is worth before it starts billing.

[Iron Mountain](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/iron-mountain), the records-storage company that also builds data centers for the cloud platforms behind AI, beat Wall Street's estimates and [raised its 2026 forecast on November 5](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/iron-mountain-incorporated-provides-earnings-guidance-for-the-fourth-quarter-2026-ce785fddd188fe22), and its shares still fell 8.1% [1]. The reason is mechanical: the raise lands below the street, with full-year revenue guided to $7.95–8.02 billion against an $8.04 billion consensus [2][3]. Because the new forecast still sits under the street, the fall prices the signed data center backlog at nothing until it starts billing.

## The quarter beat; the guide did not

[Revenue rose 13.5% to $1.99 billion](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/compared-estimates-iron-mountain-irm-133004581.html) [4], and adjusted FFO, the cash earnings measure that real estate investment trusts report, came to $1.53 a share against a $1.48 consensus [5]. Fourth-quarter revenue was guided to about $2.03 billion against a $2.05 billion estimate [3]. The Q4 adjusted-FFO guide of about $1.57 also came in below analyst estimates; only the adjusted-EBITDA guide of about $780 million matched consensus [6]. JPMorgan cut its price target to $124 from $147 the next morning [2]. The shares closed November 6 at $106.52, below their 20-, 50- and 200-day averages [1].

*Chart: **The Q4 guide lands under the street even after 13% growth** Column chart of Iron Mountain quarterly revenue from Q4 2024 through Q3 2026 as reported, plus a guided Q4 2026 bar that lands below a reference line at the $2.05 billion street consensus.*

*Quarterly revenue, US billions; reported quarters from SEC filings, Q4 '26 is company guidance. Reference line is the Q4 analyst consensus. [2][3][9]*

## A signed lease becomes revenue only when the power comes on

Chief executive William Meaney's leasing program [signed a record 102 megawatts of data center capacity in the quarter](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/iron-mountain-q3-earnings-call-122041325.html), 74 of them in India [7], and the revenue backlog now stands at $575 million [8]. That capacity earns nothing until its buildings energize: about 325 megawatts are permitted with committed power, roughly two-thirds at the Richmond campus in Virginia, and come online over the next 24 months [7].

Once energized, the backlog would bill nearly $1.8 billion a year, against 2027 data center revenue guided above $1.3 billion [8]. Holding that runway open cost $545 million of growth capex in the quarter [8].

*Chart: **Q3 growth: the AI-facing businesses outrun the records engine** Bar chart comparing Q3 2026 year-over-year revenue growth across Iron Mountain's three businesses: asset lifecycle management, data center, and global records and information management.*

*Year-over-year revenue growth by business, Q3 2026, as reported on the earnings call. [8]*

## The records business pays for the wait

The waiting is financed by the original business. Global records and information management, still the bulk of Iron Mountain, produced a record $630 million of adjusted EBITDA at a 44% margin [8]. That cash stands behind a dividend the board [raised 15% to $0.993 a quarter](https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9177170/iron-mountain-inc-irm-q3-2026-earnings-call-highlights-record-revenue-raised-guidance-and-a-15-dividend-hike), with the payout ratio held in the low 60s [7][8]. Net lease-adjusted leverage sits at 4.8 times, the lowest since before the 2014 conversion to a real estate investment trust [8].

![Iron Mountain records center: vaults of boxed records and data tapes beside a shred plant](https://storage.googleapis.com/theinference-public/img/818750a2183306a2.jpg)

*The original business: records vaults, data tapes and a shred plant at an Iron Mountain records center. Global RIM produced a record $630 million of adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter. (Rmayer27310 via Wikimedia Commons)*

## Two dates now decide what the backlog is worth

We [covered the short case against this data center build](https://theinference.org/article/a-short-seller-says-iron-mountain-s-data-center-bet-barely-covers-its-interest-bill-the-stock-rose) on October 30 [1]. What is new this week is that a record leasing quarter, a raised forecast and a dividend increase still left the shares below every major moving average [1]. At the November 6 close, the raised dividend is about a 3.7% yield, and the records business covers it [1][8].

The leases are contracted and the power is committed. What the market stopped doing this week is paying for that schedule in advance, so the discount holds until the revenue appears in a quarterly report. Two disclosures could close it. One is a segment-reporting update promised for the next earnings call, which would let investors value the storage engine and the data center build separately. The other is an investor meeting and site tour in early March [7][8].

## Takeaway

Iron Mountain beat Q3 and lifted 2026 revenue guidance to $7.95 to 8.02 billion, still below the $8.04 billion street; the 8.1% drop prices the signed data center backlog at nothing until it starts billing.

## Sources

1. [Traders Union, "Iron Mountain drops 8.14% today", 7 November 2026](https://tradersunion.com/news/stocks/show/4117840-iron-mountain-drops-8-14percent-today/)
2. [MarketScreener / S&P Capital IQ, "Iron Mountain Incorporated Provides Earnings Guidance for the Fourth Quarter 2026", 5 November 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/iron-mountain-incorporated-provides-earnings-guidance-for-the-fourth-quarter-2026-ce785fddd188fe22)
3. [Yahoo Finance, "Iron Mountain Shares Decline as Revenue Guidance Falls Below Forecasts Despite Q3 Earnings Beat", 5 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/iron-mountain-shares-decline-revenue-145728014.html)
4. [Zacks Equity Research via Yahoo Finance UK, "Compared to Estimates, Iron Mountain (IRM) Q3 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics", 5 November 2026](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/compared-estimates-iron-mountain-irm-133004581.html)
5. [Seeking Alpha, "Real Estate Earnings Scorecard: 40% firms beat revenue estimates, 60% post Y/Y growth", 7 November 2026](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4668382-real-estate-earnings-scorecard-40-firms-beat-revenue-estimates-60-post-yy-growth)
6. [Seeking Alpha, "Iron Mountain Q3 earnings beat, revenue in line, Q4 guidance soft, dividend raised", 5 November 2026](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4666491-iron-mountain-q3-earnings-beat-revenue-in-line-q4-guidance-soft-dividend-raised)
7. [MarketBeat via Yahoo Finance, "Iron Mountain Q3 Earnings Call Highlights", 7 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/iron-mountain-q3-earnings-call-122041325.html)
8. [GuruFocus, "Iron Mountain Inc (IRM) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue, Raised Guidance and a 15% Dividend Hike", 5 November 2026](https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9177170/iron-mountain-inc-irm-q3-2026-earnings-call-highlights-record-revenue-raised-guidance-and-a-15-dividend-hike)
9. [Iron Mountain, quarterly revenue from its SEC filings, retrieved 9 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001020569)


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Iron Mountain's raised 2026 forecast still sits below Wall Street's $8.04 billion — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/iron-mountain-s-raised-2026-forecast-still-sits-below-wall-street-s-8-04-billion