---
title: "韩国收益率前1%散户抛售LG Innotek：券商将三季度盈利预测砍半，归咎于韩元"
description: "韩国收益率最高的散户周一抛售LG Innotek，三季报尚未发布，全市场却已认定业绩将逊于预期。分歧在于原因：一头是美元兑韩元汇率的时间差，多头称之为暂时现象；另一头是手机砍单，但尚无报道称砍单与该公司直接相关。"
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Money"
published: 2026-10-12T15:18:53.992Z
modified: 2026-10-12T15:18:53.992Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/korea-s-top-1-traders-dump-lg-innotek-as-brokers-cut-its-quarter-by-half-and-blame-the-won/zh-CN
language: zh-CN
keywords: "Apple, Earnings, South Korea, Currency, Semiconductors"
---

# 韩国收益率前1%散户抛售LG Innotek：券商将三季度盈利预测砍半，归咎于韩元

> 韩国收益率最高的散户周一抛售LG Innotek，三季报尚未发布，全市场却已认定业绩将逊于预期。分歧在于原因：一头是美元兑韩元汇率的时间差，多头称之为暂时现象；另一头是手机砍单，但尚无报道称砍单与该公司直接相关。

10月12日（周一），LG Innotek股价大跌12.94%，至49.8万韩元，跌去7.35万韩元[1]。这家韩国公司为[苹果](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/apple)的iPhone 18 Pro供应可变光圈主摄模组，光学业务几乎全部销往苹果，约占二季度营收的82%[10]。

在[未来资产证券](https://theinference.org/markets/companies)近一个月收益率排名前1%的客户中，LG Innotek[高居抛售榜首](https://en.sedaily.com/news/2026/10/12/top-1-percent-traders-snap-up-chipboard-maker-tlb-dump-lg)[1]。预测显示三季度业绩将不及市场预期，这轮抛售看来由此而起[1]。按周一股价计算，该股较6月1日181.4万韩元的高点已回落约73%[2]。

## 业绩利空早已计入股价

母公司[LG电子](https://theinference.org/markets/companies)10月7日公布[三季度初步营业利润7818亿韩元](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/lg-electronics-releases-preliminary-earnings-for-third-quarter-2026-ce785dd9de8df726)，较9757亿韩元的市场一致预期低19.9%；LG电子股价随之下跌逾9%，券商点名LG Innotek为拖累因素[3][4]。背后的机制是汇率的时间差：二季度美元强势时购入的原材料计入三季度成本，而成品模组却按当前较弱的美元汇率出货[3]。6月30日二季度收官时，美元兑韩元收报1549.4；三季度平均汇率为1418.6，[三个月内跌幅创28年之最](https://www.msn.com/en-xl/money/economy/won-drops-200-won-against-dollar-in-three-months/ar-AA2dMYzZ)[5]。投入成本与售价之间的这种落差，无法在一个季度内弥合。

新韩投资证券将LG Innotek三季度盈利预测从3040亿韩元下调至1569亿韩元，Meritz证券将自身预测下调53.6%，至1501亿韩元[3]。Kiwoom证券预计为917亿韩元，同比减少55%；元大证券预计为787亿韩元[3][6]。四家机构的预测均低于LG Innotek二季度录得的2458亿韩元[10]。

*Chart: **LG Innotek三季度利润预测从787亿至1569亿韩元不等，新韩投资证券下调前预测为3040亿韩元** 柱状图：四家券商对LG Innotek 2026年三季度营业利润的预测，与新韩投资证券下调前3040亿韩元预测值的对比。*

*四家券商对LG Innotek 2026年7月至9月营业利润的预测（单位：十亿韩元）；基准线标出新韩投资证券下调前的预测值。资料来源：[3], [6]。 [3][6]*

## 辩方：意外源于时间差，市盈率约12倍

Kiwoom证券维持[110万韩元目标价和买入评级](https://en.sedaily.com/news/2026/10/06/lg-innotek-down-67-percent-from-peak-but-kiwoom-sees-11)[2]。分析师[Kwon Min-kyu](https://theinference.org/markets/people)写道：“撇开汇率不谈，经营状况稳固，没有实质性变化。”目前该股市盈率约12倍，三年平均水平为11.6倍[2]。元大证券[将目标价从140万韩元下调至120万韩元，但维持买入评级](https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-finance/2026/10/08/IF2VJ2P6WBA45MK54LKZ7SZ7II/)，预计可变光圈推广到现有模组后售价将上升，成本压力自四季度起缓解[6]。市场份额和平均售价均未出现实质性下滑[3]。更长期的看点是基板，即连接高性能芯片的电路板：LG Innotek正与主要FC-BGA客户磋商平均为期四至五年的供货协议[6][10]。

## 控方：客户正在砍单

空方的理由是需求，而非汇率。在存储芯片成本将起售价推高100美元后，苹果[把iPhone 18 Pro的10月零部件订单削减15%至20%](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/10/09/apple-cuts-iphone-18-pro-orders-price-demand/)[7][8]。[三星](https://theinference.org/markets/companies)已通知供应商将零部件出货量减少20%至30%，四季度手机产量最多削减30%[9]。目前尚无报道点名LG Innotek与这两笔砍单有关。但其光学业务几乎全部销往同一位客户[10]，而基板业务的对冲来得晚：FC-BGA本季度进入PC CPU，2027年进入服务器交换机，2028年进入服务器CPU，越南量产则要到2028年才开始[6]。

## 决定胜负的数字是四季度利润率

LG Innotek将于本月晚些时候发布第三季度最终业绩[3]。元大证券的检验标准近乎机械式：按更低汇率采购的原材料投入生产后，利润率便会回升[6]。如果利润率回升，三季度业绩不及预期的原因就在韩元；如果10月的砍单转而体现在出货指引中，原因就在需求。

## Takeaway

韩国收益率前1%的散户抛售LG Innotek，此时各家券商均已认定其三季度业绩将不及预期；错在韩元还是砍单，四季度利润率见分晓。

## Sources

1. [Seoul Economic Daily, "Top 1% Traders Snap Up PCB Maker TLB, Dump LG Innotek", 12 October 2026](https://en.sedaily.com/news/2026/10/12/top-1-percent-traders-snap-up-chipboard-maker-tlb-dump-lg)
2. [Seoul Economic Daily, "LG Innotek Down 67% From Peak, But Kiwoom Sees 1.1 Million Won", 6 October 2026](https://en.sedaily.com/news/2026/10/06/lg-innotek-down-67-percent-from-peak-but-kiwoom-sees-11)
3. [Yonhap Infomax, "LG Electronics Shares Plunge Over 9% as LG Innotek Weakness Drags Down Operating Profit", 8 October 2026](https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=142268)
4. [MarketScreener (Publicnow), "LG Electronics: Releases Preliminary Earnings for Third-Quarter 2026", 6 October 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/lg-electronics-releases-preliminary-earnings-for-third-quarter-2026-ce785dd9de8df726)
5. [The Chosun Ilbo, "Won drops 200 won against dollar in three months", 7 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-xl/money/economy/won-drops-200-won-against-dollar-in-three-months/ar-AA2dMYzZ)
6. [ChosunBiz, "Yuanta cuts LG Innotek target on won slide, keeps buy as Korea substrate growth builds", 8 October 2026](https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-finance/2026/10/08/IF2VJ2P6WBA45MK54LKZ7SZ7II/)
7. [MacRumors, "Apple Reportedly Cuts iPhone 18 Pro Orders After Price Hike Dampens Demand", 9 October 2026](https://www.macrumors.com/2026/10/09/apple-cuts-iphone-18-pro-orders-price-demand/)
8. [24/7 Wall St., "Apple Drops 3% on Reported iPhone 18 Pro Component Order Cuts; Skyworks Slips, Qualcomm Treads Water", 9 October 2026](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/09/apple-drops-3-on-reported-iphone-18-pro-component-order-cuts-skyworks-slips-qualcomm-treads-water/)
9. [Android Headlines, "High component costs force Samsung to panic-cut Galaxy phone output", 8 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/technology/hardware-and-devices/high-component-costs-force-samsung-to-panic-cut-galaxy-phone-output/ar-AA2dPsCL)
10. [The Korea Herald, "LG Innotek ramps up iPhone 18 Pro camera, AI substrate output", 10 August 2026](https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10836126)


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韩国收益率前1%散户抛售LG Innotek：券商将三季度盈利预测砍半，归咎于韩元 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/korea-s-top-1-traders-dump-lg-innotek-as-brokers-cut-its-quarter-by-half-and-blame-the-won/zh-CN