--- title: "Maruwa raised operating profit guidance to ¥38.3 billion on AI optics; Tokuyama's powder line lands in 2028" description: "The Tokyo ceramics maker beat its own half-year forecast on both profit lines and raised full-year guidance, naming AI communications demand first. The aluminum nitride shortage has moved from supply-chain talk to audited numbers, and the new capacity on the books tells you when it ends." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Chips" published: 2026-10-30T13:15:27.296Z modified: 2026-10-30T13:15:27.296Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/maruwa-raised-operating-profit-guidance-to-38-3-billion-on-ai-optics-tokuyama-s-powder-line-lands-in-2028 language: en keywords: "Chips, Guidance, AI Optics, Materials, Japan" --- # Maruwa raised operating profit guidance to ¥38.3 billion on AI optics; Tokuyama's powder line lands in 2028 > The Tokyo ceramics maker beat its own half-year forecast on both profit lines and raised full-year guidance, naming AI communications demand first. The aluminum nitride shortage has moved from supply-chain talk to audited numbers, and the new capacity on the books tells you when it ends. [Maruwa](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/maruwa), a Tokyo-listed electronic-ceramics maker worth about ¥655.7 billion, [printed record half-year results on October 27](https://japanir.jp/en/company/company-5344/ir/5344-20261027-01_wp_financial_summary/) [1][2]. Net sales came in 11% above the company's own forecast and operating profit 19% above it, and every reported profit line set a record [1][2]. Management named next-generation high-speed communications demand first among the reasons, lifted the interim dividend to ¥55 per share from ¥51, and [raised full-year guidance to ¥101.5 billion in sales with ¥38.3 billion in operating profit](https://japanir.jp/en/company/company-5344/ir/5344-20261027-03_wp_earnings_guidance/) [3][4]. The aluminum nitride bottleneck in AI optics has moved from supply-chain talk to an audited profit and loss statement. *Chart: **Maruwa's first half beat its own forecast on both lines** Column chart comparing Maruwa's H1 FY2027 forecast with actual results: actual net sales of ¥46,921 million exceed the ¥42,200 million forecast, and actual operating income of ¥17,605 million exceeds the ¥14,800 million forecast.* *Maruwa consolidated results for the six months ended September 30, 2026 (FY2027 interim) versus the company's own forecast, ¥ millions. Source: Maruwa TDnet disclosures via Japan IR, October 27, 2026. [1][2]* ## The part everyone skipped is now the choke point An 800G or 1.6T optical transceiver packs more lasers, driver chips and signal processors into less space, and 1.6T-class modules run at 20 to 30W [5]. Heat becomes the binding constraint, because a laser drifts and degrades as it warms. So the laser sits on an aluminum nitride substrate: a ceramic that conducts heat at 170 to 230 W/(m·K), against roughly 24 for ordinary alumina, while also insulating, carrying the fine metal wiring, and holding its shape as the chip heats and cools [5]. As data-center modules switched to cheaper non-hermetic packaging, this one ceramic became circuit board, insulator and heat sink at once. ## Three independent confirmations in one quarter The shortage is not Maruwa's claim alone. Zhongci Electronics, a Chinese maker of optical-module ceramics, told institutions on September 17 that aluminum nitride thin-film substrates are supply-short [5]. Tokuyama, the Japanese leader in high-purity aluminum nitride powder, is building a second powder base to lift capacity about 30%, with commercial operation set for April 2028 [5]. TrendForce puts the AI optical transceiver market near $26 billion this year, and LightCounting expects 800G module shipments to more than double in 2026, with 1.6T rising to the order of tens of millions of ports [5]. [MaxLinear](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/maxlinear), whose PAM4 signal processors sit in those same modules, reported infrastructure revenue up 210% year on year on October 22 and guided the December quarter up as much as 19% again, with connectivity sales more than tripled and order visibility into 2028 [6][7]. [We covered MaxLinear's print three weeks ago](https://theinference.ai/article/maxlinear-s-ai-profit-is-real-and-borrowed-infrastructure-revenue-up-210-covenant-cut-to-60-million) [8]. What is new this week is the bottom of the chain confirming it. ## The premium has an expiry date The skeptics are right that this cannot last as built. Maruwa's new communications building at its Seto plant starts operating in the second half, and Tokuyama's powder line lands in 2028 [3][5]. The profit reflects process capability that is genuinely scarce today, but both companies are building the capacity that erases it, so the scarcity premium carries a defined end date. ## What is scarce is the process, not the powder What is genuinely scarce is not nitrogen or aluminum but process capability. Thermal conductivity is highly sensitive to oxygen impurities in the powder lattice, sintering needs temperatures above 1700°C with tight atmosphere control, and the finished substrate then has to pass grinding, polishing and thin-film metallization that hold flatness and surface roughness where the customer certifies them [5]. Each step gates yield, which is why capacity moves in years rather than quarters [5]. ## The H2 test is concrete The bill for that scarcity lands on optical-module makers competing for the same ceramic. There is a catch on quality too: [Simply Wall St flags a high share of non-cash items in Maruwa's reported profit](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-reacting-maruwa-tse-5344-061030128.html), and three months of choppy trading going into the print [4]. Turning scarce powder into qualified, reliably shipping substrate is exactly the work the reward should follow. The H2 test is concrete: whether Seto's new communications building converts the raised guidance into cash while optics orders hold into 2028. If it does, Maruwa keeps what it earned until Tokuyama's powder line lands. If orders slip first, the skeptics' case strengthens. ## Takeaway Maruwa's record half and raised ¥38.3 billion operating-profit guidance turn the aluminum nitride shortage into audited numbers, but Seto's new building (H2) and Tokuyama's 2028 powder line put a date on the scarcity premium. ## Sources 1. [Japan IR, Maruwa Co.,Ltd. Announcement of Differences for Q2 FY2027 Interim Results (TDnet disclosure), 27 October 2026](https://japanir.jp/en/company/company-5344/ir/5344-20261027-02_wp_financial_summary/) 2. [Japan IR, Maruwa Co.,Ltd. Q2 FY2027 Interim Results: Net Sales Record High (TDnet disclosure), 27 October 2026](https://japanir.jp/en/company/company-5344/ir/5344-20261027-01_wp_financial_summary/) 3. [Japan IR, Maruwa Co.,Ltd. Revises Up Earnings Guidance, Fiscal Year Ending March 2027 (TDnet disclosure), 27 October 2026](https://japanir.jp/en/company/company-5344/ir/5344-20261027-03_wp_earnings_guidance/) 4. [Yahoo Finance UK / Simply Wall St, How Investors Are Reacting To Maruwa (TSE:5344) Raised Outlook And Dividend, 30 October 2026](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-reacting-maruwa-tse-5344-061030128.html) 5. [36kr, This type of seemingly insignificant material is becoming the new bottleneck for AI optical modules, collected 11 October 2026](https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/4017931349528453) 6. [Ad-hoc-news, MaxLinear stock gains as AI data-center demand accelerates, 30 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/nebenwerte/maxlinear-stock-gains-as-ai-data-center-demand-accelerates/70432065) 7. [Traders Union, MaxLinear rebound trade gains support as AI data center demand offsets stock slump, 30 October 2026](https://tradersunion.com/news/stocks/show/4020835-maxlinear-ai-data-center-rebound/) 8. [The Inference, MaxLinear's AI profit is real, and borrowed: infrastructure revenue up 210%, covenant cut to $60 million, 22 October 2026](https://theinference.ai/article/maxlinear-s-ai-profit-is-real-and-borrowed-infrastructure-revenue-up-210-covenant-cut-to-60-million) --- Maruwa raised operating profit guidance to ¥38.3 billion on AI optics; Tokuyama's powder line lands in 2028 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/maruwa-raised-operating-profit-guidance-to-38-3-billion-on-ai-optics-tokuyama-s-powder-line-lands-in-2028