--- title: "MediaTek needs November and December to jump 41-52% over October to cash its Q4 guide" description: "October's flat print means November and December must average 41-52% above October to meet Q4 guidance, and the only line that size is the first data-center AI ASIC ramping now. The December 10 monthly report confirms or kills the re-rating from phone-chip vendor to hyperscaler supplier." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Chips" published: 2026-11-11T14:48:26.395Z modified: 2026-11-11T14:48:26.395Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/mediatek-needs-november-and-december-to-jump-41-52-over-october-to-cash-its-q4-guide language: en keywords: "MediaTek, Semiconductors, Guidance, AI Chips, Taiwan" --- # MediaTek needs November and December to jump 41-52% over October to cash its Q4 guide > October's flat print means November and December must average 41-52% above October to meet Q4 guidance, and the only line that size is the first data-center AI ASIC ramping now. The December 10 monthly report confirms or kills the re-rating from phone-chip vendor to hyperscaler supplier. [MediaTek](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/mediatek)'s [October revenue landed at NT$55.026 billion on November 10](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/mediatek-stock-faces-q4-test-after-october-revenue-growth/70491115): up 5.77% from a year earlier, down 0.67% from September, and essentially flat with the third quarter's monthly pace [1]. That is a problem, because the fourth-quarter guide the company gave on October 30 calls for NT$210.1 to NT$221.8 billion, growth of 25% to 32% over Q3's NT$168.058 billion [2]. October contributed NT$55.0 billion of it [2]. November and December must therefore average NT$77.5 to NT$83.4 billion, roughly 41% to 52% above October [2]. Two months have to produce about three-quarters of the quarter. *Chart: **MediaTek needs a 41-52% step-up in monthly revenue to meet Q4 guidance** Bars comparing MediaTek's Q3 monthly average revenue and October 2026 revenue with the November-December average required by the low and high ends of Q4 guidance.* *Monthly consolidated revenue, NT$ billions. Q3 monthly average is NT$168.058B over 3 months; required November-December average is derived from Q4 guidance of NT$210.1-221.8B minus October's NT$55.026B, divided by two. Sources: MediaTek monthly sales and Q4 guidance via ad-hoc-news.de [1], NeoTeo Q3 report [2]. [1][2]* ## The ASIC ramp is the only line big enough to close the gap The only line in the plan that big is the [first data-center AI ASIC](https://theinference.org/article/mediatek-s-first-ai-chip-adds-2-5-billion-of-q4-revenue-at-a-lower-margin-funded-by-nvidia-and-alphabet), entering production this quarter. Management expects US$2.5 billion of Q4 revenue from data-center ASICs [1], targets roughly US$16 billion from that first accelerator in 2027 and has signed a second customer [4]. Eric Fisher, MediaTek's corporate VP of sales, told a New York audience the company won a leading U.S. hyperscaler and that "this time next year, you will all agree that MediaTek looks like a very, very different company" [3]. [Alphabet](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/alphabet)'s capital spending, more than doubled to US$51.4 billion last quarter [5], is the budget that pays for chips like these. ## The market is repricing, but policy helped The market has started voting. On November 9, 2454.TW rose 9.88% while [Broadcom](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/broadcom) rose 9.02% on [Google's US$135 billion TPU forecast](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/real-winner-google-135-billion-204531962.html), a story that names MediaTek only in passing [5]. Caveat: the whole Taiex jumped 6.4% that day after regulators [capped short sales and readied a NT$500 billion stabilization fund](https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/taiwan-stocks-jump-as-authorities-move-to-stem-market-rout-14075122.html), so part of MediaTek's move is policy, not ASICs [6]. And the label it is trying to shed still bites: mobile revenue fell 17% year over year in Q3 [2]. One tailwind: Commercial Times reports [NVIDIA may cut TSMC orders](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/11/10/news-nvidia-order-cuts-reportedly-loom-amid-huang-controversy-amd-asic-rivals-may-gain-tsmc-capacity/), freeing capacity for ASIC players including MediaTek [4]. [NVIDIA](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nvidia) and Alphabet both bought into its US$3.9 billion convertible last quarter [2], customers bankrolling their supplier. ## The next print decides it The checkpoints are dated. MediaTek's November sales print comes December 10 [1], and January brings December's figure. Anything under NT$77.5 billion a month breaks the guide in installments; anything near NT$83 billion confirms the re-rating from Android chip vendor to Google's second custom-silicon supplier [1]. The tape will say which, one monthly report at a time. Tell readers to deep dive in below to learn more. ## Takeaway MediaTek's Q4 guide needs November and December to average 41-52% above a flat October, and only the first data-center AI ASIC, expected to add US$2.5 billion this quarter, can plausibly close that gap; the December 10 monthly print is the checkpoint. ## Sources 1. [ad-hoc-news.de, MediaTek stock faces Q4 test after October revenue growth, 11 November 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/mediatek-stock-faces-q4-test-after-october-revenue-growth/70491115) 2. [NeoTeo, MediaTek expects 2026 revenue growth to exceed its prior target, 9 November 2026](https://www.neoteo.com/en/mediatek-expects-2026-revenue-growth-to-exceed-its-prior-target) 3. [All About Circuits, MediaTek Details Its Custom AI Silicon and AI PC Plans at NYC Dinner, 2 November 2026](https://www.allaboutcircuits.com/news/mediatek-details-its-custom-ai-silicon-and-ai-pc-plans-at-nyc-dinner/) 4. [TrendForce, NVIDIA Order Cuts Reportedly Loom Amid Huang Controversy; AMD, ASIC Rivals May Gain TSMC Capacity, 10 November 2026](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/11/10/news-nvidia-order-cuts-reportedly-loom-amid-huang-controversy-amd-asic-rivals-may-gain-tsmc-capacity/) 5. [Yahoo Finance (Michael Douglass), The Real Winner of Google's $135 Billion Chip Forecast: Broadcom, 9 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/real-winner-google-135-billion-204531962.html) 6. [Moneycontrol/Bloomberg, Taiwan stocks jump as authorities move to stem market rout, 9 November 2026](https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/taiwan-stocks-jump-as-authorities-move-to-stem-market-rout-14075122.html) --- MediaTek needs November and December to jump 41-52% over October to cash its Q4 guide — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/mediatek-needs-november-and-december-to-jump-41-52-over-october-to-cash-its-q4-guide