--- title: "Michael Burry says Fiserv is worth $100 to $120 a share; the stock rose 13% to $58.83" description: "The Big Short investor's November 2 buyout math puts Fiserv at $100 to $120 a share. A next-day beat, a doubled cost-cut target and fresh upgrades lifted the stock 13%, to $58.83." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Economy" published: 2026-11-05T14:07:42.731Z modified: 2026-11-05T14:07:42.731Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/michael-burry-says-fiserv-is-worth-100-to-120-a-share-the-stock-rose-13-to-58-83 language: en keywords: "Stock Moves, Earnings, Analyst Calls, Payments, Fiserv, Michael Burry" --- # Michael Burry says Fiserv is worth $100 to $120 a share; the stock rose 13% to $58.83 > The Big Short investor's November 2 buyout math puts Fiserv at $100 to $120 a share. A next-day beat, a doubled cost-cut target and fresh upgrades lifted the stock 13%, to $58.83. ## A $100 call on a stock trading near $50 [Michael Burry](https://theinference.org/markets/people/michael-burry), whose bet against the 2000s housing bubble was chronicled in The Big Short, used [a November 2 Substack post](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/michael-burry-says-global-payments-buyout-math-means-fiserv-stock-could-hit-100/ar-AA2gBjbb) to value [Fiserv](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/fiserv), the processor behind about a third of U.S. merchant payment volume, at $100 to $120 a share in a buyout [1][3]. The stock traded near $50 when he wrote it, down 76.2% over two years [1][3]. His yardstick is the reported early-stage bid by the buyout firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice and GTCR, [Global Payments](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/global-payments)' largest shareholder, for that rival [3]. Fiserv "is still Castle," his label for top holdings, and [PayPal](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/paypal) remains a "fat pitch" in the $50s [3], a view [BofA does not share](https://theinference.org/article/bofa-rates-paypal-a-sell-with-a-53-target-7-50-under-the-60-50-bid-the-board-turned-away). ## A beat, an impairment, and a 13% pop On November 3, Fiserv [reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.75](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fiserv-reports-third-quarter-2026-results-1036706442), four cents above consensus, on flat organic revenue: Merchant Solutions fell 2%, Financial Solutions grew 2% [4][8]. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance, doubled its Project Elevate savings target to $1 billion and promised $500 million of buybacks this quarter [4]. The savings come from embedding AI across workflows, and an agentic-AI product for banks counts 200 institutions in its pipeline [7]. A $6.45 billion goodwill impairment, triggered by the share-price collapse, still drove a GAAP loss of $11.17 a share [4]. The stock rose 13% to $58.83 [5]. ## A shrinking cash engine under the pop The pop lands on a business that has stopped growing. Free cash flow fell to $2.04 billion in the first nine months from $2.88 billion, and adjusted operating margin slipped to 31.2% from 37.0% [4]. *Chart: **Free cash flow has shrunk year on year in three of the last four quarters** Line chart of Fiserv's quarterly free cash flow from Q3 2023 to Q2 2026, peaking near $1.8 billion in late 2024 and falling to under $1 billion by mid-2026.* *Quarterly free cash flow in billions of US dollars, from Fiserv's quarterly filings with the SEC (EDGAR); the third quarter of 2026 is not yet in the series. [10]* *Chart: **Fiserv's revenue growth went from 8% to minus 4% in three years** Line chart of Fiserv's year-on-year revenue growth across 12 quarters, falling steadily from 7.9% to minus 4.1% and crossing zero in early 2026.* *Year-on-year revenue growth by calendar quarter, from Fiserv's quarterly filings with the SEC (EDGAR); the second quarter of 2026 is the latest in the series. [9]* ## The ladder stops at $72. Burry starts at $100 This week's upgrades climbed the ladder's middle: Argus to Buy at $72, RBC to $70, TD Cowen to $59 [2]. [BofA](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/bank-of-america) holds Underperform at $48, the consensus average sits at $57.55, and analysts [cut 2026 EPS estimates 27 times in 90 days without one raise](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/michael-burry-sees-buyout-value-082650490.html) [1]. At Burry's range the equity alone is worth $53 billion to $64 billion, 14 to 17 times 2026 consensus EPS of $7.24, before the $25.8 billion of long-term debt an acquirer inherits, itself down from $27.8 billion at end-2025 [1][4]. His own benchmark cuts both ways: he values Global Payments' control at $45 to $60, below its $96.84 price, and notes financial buyers pay less than strategics [3]. *Chart: **Every target but BofA's sits above the post-earnings price; Burry's floor is near double** Bar chart ranking Fiserv price targets from BofA's $48 up to Burry's $100-120 takeout range, against the $58.83 close of November 3.* *Published price targets as of November 5, 2026; Burry's bar is the midpoint of his stated $100-120 buyout range. Reference line: November 3 close. [1][2][5]* ## Three tests between $58.83 and Burry's $100 Three dated tests: whether the Global Payments bid becomes a signed price, turning the measuring stick into a market multiple; fourth-quarter results, where CFO Paul Todd expects revenue acceleration and Clover's return to double-digit growth [4][7]; and banking attrition, already down more than 25% this year [4]. Keefe Bruyette [called it a better-than-expected quarter against tempered hopes](https://www.americanbanker.com/payments/news/fiserv-bets-on-payment-tech-ai-to-drive-recovery), with sustainability the open question [7]. The cash is real; the bidder is still a rumor. ## Takeaway Burry's buyout floor of $100 sits well above the Street's $72 top; closing the gap takes a signed bid or a return to growth. ## Sources 1. [Investing.com via Yahoo Finance, "Michael Burry sees buyout value in Fiserv. Do the numbers agree?", 5 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/michael-burry-sees-buyout-value-082650490.html) 2. [StockTwits via Yahoo Finance, "Wall Street Bets: Navitas, Duolingo And Fiserv Get Upgrades While CleanSpark Faces Texas Headwinds", 5 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/wall-street-bets-navitas-duolingo-085840685.html) 3. [Benzinga via MSN, "Michael Burry says Global Payments buyout math means Fiserv stock could hit $100", 2 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/michael-burry-says-global-payments-buyout-math-means-fiserv-stock-could-hit-100/ar-AA2gBjbb) 4. [Fiserv press release via GlobeNewswire, "Fiserv Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results", 3 November 2026](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fiserv-reports-third-quarter-2026-results-1036706442) 5. [Proactive via Yahoo Finance, "Fiserv rises 13% as it plans $500 million in share buybacks", 3 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fiserv-rises-13-plans-500-202800824.html) 7. [American Banker, John Adams, "Fiserv bets on payment tech, AI to drive recovery", 3 November 2026](https://www.americanbanker.com/payments/news/fiserv-bets-on-payment-tech-ai-to-drive-recovery) 8. [GuruFocus via Yahoo Finance, "Fiserv Beats Wall Street, But a Troubling Question Remains", 3 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fiserv-beats-wall-street-troubling-180344477.html) 9. [Fiserv, quarterly figures from its SEC filings (EDGAR), retrieved 5 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000798354) 10. [Fiserv, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 5 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000798354) --- Michael Burry says Fiserv is worth $100 to $120 a share; the stock rose 13% to $58.83 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/michael-burry-says-fiserv-is-worth-100-to-120-a-share-the-stock-rose-13-to-58-83