---
title: "Micron's Chinese rival CXMT held 9% of world DRAM revenue in Q3, down from 10%, and does not yet sell HBM4"
description: "Counterpoint's quarterly tracker, out on November 5, counts ChangXin Memory at 9% of world DRAM revenue, down from 10%, in a record quarter driven by price. The chip billed as China's answer to Micron is earning the cycle's margin while missing the product, HBM4, where the next share is decided."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Chips"
published: 2026-11-05T14:21:42.678Z
modified: 2026-11-05T14:21:42.678Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/micron-s-chinese-rival-cxmt-held-9-of-world-dram-revenue-in-q3-down-from-10-and-does-not-yet-sell-hbm4
language: en
keywords: "Memory, DRAM, CXMT, Micron, HBM, Chips"
---

# Micron's Chinese rival CXMT held 9% of world DRAM revenue in Q3, down from 10%, and does not yet sell HBM4

> Counterpoint's quarterly tracker, out on November 5, counts ChangXin Memory at 9% of world DRAM revenue, down from 10%, in a record quarter driven by price. The chip billed as China's answer to Micron is earning the cycle's margin while missing the product, HBM4, where the next share is decided.

The number investors quote for China's memory champion comes from Dan Niles, the fund manager who warned this week that [Micron's real risk](https://theinference.org/article/micron-sold-off-on-cxmt-s-spec-free-server-memory-promise-and-trades-near-5-5-times-peak-earnings) is [CXMT](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/cxmt): about 8% of the DRAM market today, with an aim of 20% by 2028 [2]. [Counterpoint Research's quarterly table, published on November 5](https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20261105008800320), counts differently. [2]

ChangXin Memory Technologies took 9% of world DRAM revenue in the third quarter, a point lower than in the second, in a global market that hit a record near $200 billion [1]. The climb case rests on the margin. The share table is the counter-evidence. [1]

## A price-led boom pays the seller with the higher-value chip

Counterpoint's tracker explains why both things are true at once. Third-quarter DRAM revenue was a price story, not a volume story: [bit shipments grew about 4% while selling prices set records](https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-it/2026/11/05/UY737Y34V5HA3G4DRAYCS4EKGM/), and commodity DDR and LPDDR actually outgrew HBM. [3]

CXMT sells commodity DRAM and says its products are priced on par with overseas rivals, so it collects the same price rise everyone else collects and cannot outgrow the market. Samsung and [SK hynix](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/sk-hynix) expanded supply of higher-value products instead, and SK hynix's revenue rose more than 40% from the second quarter, lifting its share three points [4] [1]. CXMT's revenue rose with the market because its prices match rivals; its share fell because its products do not. [4] [1]

*Chart: **ChangXin holds 9% of DRAM revenue, down a point, against a 20% by 2028 target** Bar chart of Q3 2026 global DRAM revenue share: Samsung 38%, SK hynix 29%, Micron 21%, CXMT 9%, with a reference line at the 20% CXMT target for 2028 cited by Dan Niles.*

*Share of global DRAM revenue by vendor, third quarter 2026, from Counterpoint Research's Q3 memory tracker as reported by Yonhap News; the reference line is the 20%-by-2028 share Dan Niles cited on November 3. [1][2]*

## The next point of share gets decided where CXMT does not yet sell

Counterpoint expects ChangXin's share to decline further in the fourth quarter, as the Korean makers begin shipping HBM4, the memory class AI data centers pay the most for [1] [5] [4]. SK hynix brought HBM4 into mass production this quarter and says its memory is sold out through 2029; CXMT's furthest product on that front is a first batch of HBM3E samples. [1] [5] [4]

![Microscope photo of an HBM DRAM die](https://storage.googleapis.com/theinference-public/img/9b9dbba8deadc7db.jpg)

*An HBM DRAM die under a microscope. The stacked memory class is what AI data centers pay the most for, and CXMT's furthest product there is a first batch of HBM3E samples. (Fritzchens Fritz via Flickr)*

The climb case is real, and it is dated. CXMT's [sixth-generation 4F² platform](https://theinference.org/article/cxmt-validates-the-dram-design-micron-abandoned-with-server-samples-due-december-31), the density design [Micron](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/micron) has ruled out, completed engineering-sample validation, and its [third-quarter gross margin of 89.53% was higher than Micron's](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/11/02/news-beyond-cxmts-89-53-gross-margin-in-3q26-3-key-takeaways-on-ltas-4f%C2%B2-advancement-and-lpddr6/) [6] [4]. But the first server-grade samples are due only by December 31, and the company has disclosed no mass-production timeline. [6] [4]

Micron's answer comes on December 16, and its own supply just wobbled: it [suspended work on its $4.5 billion Taiwan fab](https://www.analyticsinsight.net/news/micron-taiwan-expansion-usd-45-billion-plant-halted-over-pay-dispute) over a pay dispute, in a country that makes about 60% of its DRAM output. [7]

## What the table says about the risk

Read this week as a dispute over the climb, not a dispute over demand. The AI buildout is real and CXMT is a genuine long-term competitor; the buildout also has a funding question, and Beijing is currently defending the market CXMT trades in. State-backed funds [put 76.7 billion yuan into nine favored exchange-traded funds on November 3](https://www.livemint.com/market/china-boosts-market-defense-with-national-team-buying-buybacks-11793762762747.html). [8] [6]

CXMT's chairman proposed enlarging the company's buyback the next day. That support holds the price while the fundamentals wait on the two December dates. What the table supports is the companies shipping HBM4 [8] [6]. What it does not support, yet, is paying for a 20% share that appears nowhere in the revenue count. [8] [6]

## Takeaway

Counterpoint counts CXMT at 9% of world DRAM revenue in Q3, down a point: the price-led boom pays whoever ships the higher-value chip, and CXMT does not yet ship HBM4. Watch Micron's December 16 event and CXMT's server-grade samples due by December 31.

## Sources

1. [Yonhap News Agency, Samsung retains top spots in global DRAM market in Q3, 5 November 2026](https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20261105008800320)
2. [TIKR, Micron's Real Risk: China's CXMT Targets "20% by 2028," Warns Dan Niles, 3 November 2026](https://www.tikr.com/blog/microns-real-risk-chinas-cxmt-targets-20-by-2028-warns-dan-niles?)
3. [Chosunbiz, Samsung leads DRAM boom as prices surge and commodity chips outpace HBM, 5 November 2026](https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-it/2026/11/05/UY737Y34V5HA3G4DRAYCS4EKGM/)
4. [TrendForce, Beyond CXMT's 89.53% Gross Margin in 3Q26: 3 Key Takeaways on LTAs, 4F² Advancement and LPDDR6, 2 November 2026](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/11/02/news-beyond-cxmts-89-53-gross-margin-in-3q26-3-key-takeaways-on-ltas-4f%C2%B2-advancement-and-lpddr6/)
5. [AInvest, Record profits, bleeding shares: the Korean memory selloff is a funding trade, not a demand problem, 5 November 2026](https://www.ainvest.com/news/record-profits-bleeding-shares-korean-memory-selloff-funding-trade-demand-problem-2611/)
6. [Invezz via TradingView, Micron, SK Hynix, SanDisk stocks fall: why Dems' Texas win is spooking investors, 5 November 2026](https://www.tradingview.com/news/invezz:ea601417b094b:0-micron-sk-hynix-sandisk-stocks-fall-why-dems-texas-win-is-spooking-investors/)
7. [Analytics Insight, Micron Taiwan Expansion: USD 4.5 Billion Plant Halted Over Pay Dispute, 5 November 2026](https://www.analyticsinsight.net/news/micron-taiwan-expansion-usd-45-billion-plant-halted-over-pay-dispute)
8. [Livemint (Bloomberg), China Boosts Market Defense With National Team Buying, Buybacks, 5 November 2026](https://www.livemint.com/market/china-boosts-market-defense-with-national-team-buying-buybacks-11793762762747.html)


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Micron's Chinese rival CXMT held 9% of world DRAM revenue in Q3, down from 10%, and does not yet sell HBM4 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/micron-s-chinese-rival-cxmt-held-9-of-world-dram-revenue-in-q3-down-from-10-and-does-not-yet-sell-hbm4