---
title: "Mobileye bets robotaxis won't need lidar, but Israeli grants fund $51 million of its $89 million profit"
description: "Mobileye's chief executive told investors robotaxis will eventually run without lidar, siding with Tesla against Alphabet's Waymo. The bill falls on a chip business whose quarterly adjusted profit leaned on $51 million of Israeli research incentives."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Chips"
published: 2026-11-03T14:10:33.029Z
modified: 2026-11-03T14:10:33.029Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/mobileye-bets-robotaxis-won-t-need-lidar-but-israeli-grants-fund-51-million-of-its-89-million-profit
language: en
keywords: "Mobileye, Earnings, Autonomous Vehicles, Lidar, Semiconductors, Israel"
---

# Mobileye bets robotaxis won't need lidar, but Israeli grants fund $51 million of its $89 million profit

> Mobileye's chief executive told investors robotaxis will eventually run without lidar, siding with Tesla against Alphabet's Waymo. The bill falls on a chip business whose quarterly adjusted profit leaned on $51 million of Israeli research incentives.

## The call that picked a side

[Mobileye](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/mobileye), the Jerusalem driver-assistance chipmaker in which [Intel](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/intel) still holds majority ownership [1], picked a side on its [October 29 earnings call](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mobileye-global-q3-earnings-call-201434366.html): "Our bet is on cameras and imaging radar. We believe that, in the long run, LiDAR will not be necessary," chief executive [Amnon Shashua](https://theinference.org/markets/people/amnon-shashua) said [2]. No date came with the bet; the imaging-radar program is seven years old [2].

The destination is [Elon Musk](https://theinference.org/markets/people/elon-musk)'s camp: he has called lidar, the laser-ranging sensor carried by most robotaxis, "a crutch" [3]. [Waymo](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/waymo), [Alphabet](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/alphabet)'s robotaxi operator, holds the other side, arguing in August from more than 200 million driverless miles that "cameras are incredible, but they aren't enough" [3]. If the bet pays, the robotaxi bill of materials shifts toward camera and imaging-radar suppliers and away from lidar makers, and it would be set by a company whose EyeQ chips have shipped in more than 230 million vehicles [1].

## More than half the profit is a grant

The chip business paying for the bet is losing price. [Third-quarter revenue fell 2 percent to $492 million](https://autonews.gasgoo.com/articles/news/mobileye-q3-fy2026-revenue-edges-down-2-yoy-to-492-million-2117455559707742209) [4], and revenue per system dropped 5 percent as Chinese automakers bought lower-software kits, a mix that alone cut average selling price by about $1 [2][5]. Adjusted operating profit rose 20 percent to $89 million, but $51 million of it was research credits under Israel's new R&D incentive law [2][5]. Customers funded less than half the quarter's profit; the state of Israel funded the rest.

The full-year adjusted target of about $400 million embeds roughly $190 million of such credits, [a grant share The Inference flagged on October 31](https://theinference.org/article/mobileye-beat-and-raised-then-hit-a-52-week-low-190-million-of-its-profit-guide-is-a-grant), when a beat-and-raise still bought a 52-week low [5].

*Chart: **Two years without growth: Q3 2026 revenue sits below Q3 2025** Line chart of Mobileye quarterly revenue from Q4 2023 to Q3 2026, ranging from $239M to $637M and ending at $492M, below the year-earlier quarter.*

*Quarterly revenue, US$ millions, as reported in Mobileye's SEC filings; the Q4 guide is the company's October 29 outlook. [5][9]*

## Nine lidars a car, for now

The declared future argues with the present. Every Mobileye Drive robotaxi carries nine InnovizTwo lidars from [Innoviz](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/innoviz), the platform's lidar supplier, and Innoviz sizes that ramp at more than 150,000 units, a pipeline the declaration puts on the wrong side of Mobileye's own bet [6]. [Orlando is slated for roughly 100 vehicles with no safety drivers in 2027](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/16/self-driving-tech-supplier-mobileye-targets-us-robotaxi-launch-in-2027.html), toward about 17,000 over five years, with Miami to follow [2][7]. Hamburg's public rides still carry safety drivers, and Norway has approved deployment [4].

Volume keeps rising beneath the bet: [nine-month EyeQ shipments grew 11 percent](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001910139) while global vehicle production slipped about 1 percent [2][4], and the Road Experience Management (REM) crowdsourced map database behind the strategy draws on about eight million cars [2].

## A record low against a raised floor

Investors treated the raised revenue floor, $1.995 billion against a prior $1.97 billion [2][4], as detail. The shares fell 9 percent to a record low of $6.37 on report day [8], the slide [the October 31 report](https://theinference.org/article/mobileye-beat-and-raised-then-hit-a-52-week-low-190-million-of-its-profit-guide-is-a-grant) caught, and kept falling: the delayed quote on the company's investor page read $5.65 on November 3 [1]. That is within 65 cents of [RBC's pre-report $5 target](https://theinference.org/article/rbc-cuts-mobileye-to-5-against-an-11-consensus-before-its-october-29-report-with-20-6-of-the-float-short) and far under the $9.36 average Mobileye paid in its April-launched buyback [5].

Two dates now decide the bet: [driverless Orlando rides through 2027](https://techtime.news/2026/11/02/mobileye-25/), and 2028, when Surround ADAS at roughly twice base pricing and Chauffeur at about $2,500 a vehicle are scheduled to lift content per car [5]. Until one arrives, more than half of Mobileye's adjusted profit comes from Israel's incentive law, not from any carmaker.

## Takeaway

Mobileye picked Tesla's side on lidar, but its quarter shows the cost: revenue down 2 percent, price falling in China, and $51 million of a $89 million adjusted profit funded by Israeli research grants. Orlando's driverless launch in 2027 and the 2028 premium-tier rollout now carry the bet.

## Sources

1. [Mobileye Investor Relations, corporate profile and delayed MBLY stock quote, retrieved 3 November 2026](https://ir.mobileye.com/)
2. [Techtime, Mobileye Plans Orlando Robotaxi Fleet for 2027, Eyes LiDAR-Free Future, 2 November 2026](https://techtime.news/2026/11/02/mobileye-25/)
3. [The Verge, In a swipe at Tesla, Waymo says 'cameras... aren't enough', 27 August 2026](https://www.theverge.com/transportation/985503/waymo-tesla-lidar-camera-robotaxi-cybercab-musk)
4. [Gasgoo, Mobileye Q3 FY2026 Revenue Edges Down 2% YoY to $492 Million, 3 November 2026](https://autonews.gasgoo.com/articles/news/mobileye-q3-fy2026-revenue-edges-down-2-yoy-to-492-million-2117455559707742209)
5. [MarketBeat via Yahoo Finance, Mobileye Global Q3 Earnings Call Highlights, 29 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mobileye-global-q3-earnings-call-201434366.html)
6. [Insider Monkey via Yahoo Finance, Innoviz Technologies Backs Mobileye (MBLY) Robotaxi Push With LiDAR Supply Deal, 29 June 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/innoviz-technologies-backs-mobileye-mbly-020408825.html)
7. [CNBC, Self-driving tech supplier Mobileye targets U.S. robotaxi launch in 2027, 16 June 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/16/self-driving-tech-supplier-mobileye-targets-us-robotaxi-launch-in-2027.html)
8. [Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance, Why Did NFLX, MBLY, APP Stocks Tumble To 52-Week Lows?, 29 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-did-nflx-mbly-app-032345563.html)
9. [Mobileye, quarterly revenue from its SEC filings (EDGAR), retrieved 3 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001910139)


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Mobileye bets robotaxis won't need lidar, but Israeli grants fund $51 million of its $89 million profit — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/mobileye-bets-robotaxis-won-t-need-lidar-but-israeli-grants-fund-51-million-of-its-89-million-profit