--- title: "Molina Healthcare's CFO lays out a path to $9.50 EPS in 2027, on $4 of fixes not yet earned" description: "Molina's finance chief added $4 of \"embedded earnings\" to a $5.25 floor for 2027, assuming no recovery at all in Medicaid margins. Guidance, and the test of each dollar, arrives in February." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Health" published: 2026-11-11T19:15:29.127Z modified: 2026-11-11T19:15:29.127Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/molina-healthcare-s-cfo-lays-out-a-path-to-9-50-eps-in-2027-on-4-of-fixes-not-yet-earned language: en keywords: "Guidance, Earnings, Medicaid, Insurance, Analyst Calls" --- # Molina Healthcare's CFO lays out a path to $9.50 EPS in 2027, on $4 of fixes not yet earned > Molina's finance chief added $4 of "embedded earnings" to a $5.25 floor for 2027, assuming no recovery at all in Medicaid margins. Guidance, and the test of each dollar, arrives in February. ## A $9.50 bridge whose biggest plank is losing money At UBS's Global Healthcare Conference on November 9, [Molina Healthcare](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/molina-healthcare) (NYSE: MOH) chief financial officer Mark Keim gave investors the insurer's first full arithmetic for 2027: adjusted earnings of at least $9.50 a share, 81% above the 2026 floor of at least $5.25 [1]. The largest single piece is the $6 billion Florida CMS Kids contract, a new Medicaid program Molina has run for about a month and [expects to show a 99% medical loss ratio](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/molina-healthcare-sees-path-9-131226348.html), the share of premium spent on care, and a 5% pretax loss in the fourth quarter before break-even next year [1]. [A November 6 securities filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1179929/000143774926035576/moh20261106_8k.htm) had re-anchored 2026 at floors of $2.38 GAAP and $5.25 adjusted [2]. The floor sits under a bruised stock: third-quarter net income fell 52% to $38 million and shares dropped 4.4% on the October 21 report, [which The Inference covered at the time](https://theinference.org/article/molina-healthcare-beat-estimates-and-held-guidance-yet-its-profit-fell-53-and-the-stock-sank-about-5) [3][4]. ## Two of the four dollars are last year's losses Keim splits the $4 of "embedded earnings" three ways: $1.50 as Florida reaches break-even, $1 from exiting the traditional Medicare Advantage drug plan, and $1.50 from administrative efficiency as premium revenue grows from about $42 billion to $45 billion [1]. [Molina's own 2026 guidance already carries matching losses](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/molina-healthcare-reports-third-quarter-201500037.html): $1.50 a share from the Florida implementation and $1 from the Medicare product being exited [3]. Two of the four dollars are the arithmetic of not repeating 2026 [2]. The filing's safe-harbor paragraph lists "embedded" among its forward-looking words [2]. *Chart: **Molina's 2027 framework: a $5.25 floor plus $4 of embedded earnings** Bar chart of Molina's 2027 EPS framework: a $5.25 floor from 2026 guidance, then $1.50 from Florida CMS Kids break-even, $1.00 from the Medicare Advantage exit and $1.50 from administrative leverage* *Per-share contributions to 2027 adjusted EPS, per CFO Mark Keim's framework at the UBS Global Healthcare Conference, November 9, 2026; not formal guidance. [1][2]* ## What the framework refuses to assume The build asks nothing of Medicaid: its 92.6% loss ratio stays put, rates rise about 6% against medical trend of 5.5% to 6%, most markets stay about 300 basis points underfunded, and 6% of members are assumed to leave under OB3 eligibility changes including work requirements [1]. The Marketplace flip from a $0.75 per-share loss to break-even is bought by retreating from 13 or 14 states to about six, giving up roughly $1 billion of 2027 revenue in a market where [benchmark silver premiums are up 13% by KFF's count](https://thefinancialwire.com/ambetter-from-centene-is-leaving-the-delaware-and-new-hampshire-aca-marketplaces-for-2027/) [1][5]. Ohio is an exit with a name: Molina [will not sell Affordable Care Act plans there in 2027](https://www.springfieldnewssun.com/local/business/caresource-molina-to-drop-aca-marketplace-plans-in-ohio-in-2027/article_13a99274-aac7-53d8-928d-47646ac58c85.html), half of a two-insurer withdrawal touching about 54,000 people [6]. Marketplace membership has already fallen from 655,000 to 267,000 this year [3]. ## February prices the promises Keim's defense is that the framework needs no Medicaid turnaround: any loss-ratio improvement is upside, and chief executive Joseph Zubretsky has said the company is "likely observing the beginning of the turn in Medicaid margins" [1][3]. None of it is audited, and Florida has yet to earn a dollar. Formal guidance comes in February, when Molina revisits the 6% membership assumption; the remaining $5 of embedded earnings is penciled in for 2028 and 2029 [1]. The floor is real money; the four dollars are promises with a February deadline. ## Takeaway Molina's CFO sketched $9.50 of 2027 adjusted EPS as a $5.25 floor plus $4 of embedded earnings that assumes no Medicaid recovery at all; two of the four dollars are simply 2026 losses not repeating, and February's formal guidance is the test. ## Sources 1. [MarketBeat via Yahoo Finance, "Molina Healthcare Sees Path to $9.50 EPS in 2027, but Medicaid Risks Remain," 10 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/molina-healthcare-sees-path-9-131226348.html) 2. [Molina Healthcare Form 8-K, SEC filing, 6 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1179929/000143774926035576/moh20261106_8k.htm) 3. [Molina Healthcare, "Molina Healthcare Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results" (Business Wire via Yahoo Finance), 21 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/molina-healthcare-reports-third-quarter-201500037.html) 4. [24/7 Wall St, "Molina Healthcare Q3 2026: The Beat That Hides a 52% Net Income Drop," 21 October 2026](https://247wallst.com/cards/molina-healthcare-q3-2026-earnings-moh-01m5g2671z0ccepbq125ttx1ke) 5. [The Financial Wire, "Ambetter from Centene is leaving the Delaware and New Hampshire ACA marketplaces for 2027, and Molina is cutting its marketplace coverage to about six states," 9 November 2026](https://thefinancialwire.com/ambetter-from-centene-is-leaving-the-delaware-and-new-hampshire-aca-marketplaces-for-2027/) 6. [Springfield News-Sun / Dayton Daily News (Samantha Wildow), "CareSource, Molina to drop ACA Marketplace plans in Ohio in 2027," 29 September 2026](https://www.springfieldnewssun.com/local/business/caresource-molina-to-drop-aca-marketplace-plans-in-ohio-in-2027/article_13a99274-aac7-53d8-928d-47646ac58c85.html) --- Molina Healthcare's CFO lays out a path to $9.50 EPS in 2027, on $4 of fixes not yet earned — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/molina-healthcare-s-cfo-lays-out-a-path-to-9-50-eps-in-2027-on-4-of-fixes-not-yet-earned