--- title: "Molina's 10-Q moves its two biggest Medicaid wins past the 2027 recovery the Street is pricing" description: "The 10-Q moves the Georgia and Texas wins to late 2027 or 2028 while the Street raises targets on 2027 rates; the Florida children's contract is guided to a $1.50-per-share quarterly loss and about 700 autism providers say they are unpaid. The recovery-year revenue arrives after the recovery year." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Health" published: 2026-10-24T14:12:01.858Z modified: 2026-10-24T14:12:01.858Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/molina-s-10-q-moves-its-two-biggest-medicaid-wins-past-the-2027-recovery-the-street-is-pricing language: en keywords: "Medicaid, Managed Care, Earnings, Health Insurance, Guidance" --- # Molina's 10-Q moves its two biggest Medicaid wins past the 2027 recovery the Street is pricing > The 10-Q moves the Georgia and Texas wins to late 2027 or 2028 while the Street raises targets on 2027 rates; the Florida children's contract is guided to a $1.50-per-share quarterly loss and about 700 autism providers say they are unpaid. The recovery-year revenue arrives after the recovery year. [Molina](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/molina-healthcare) [beat estimates this week](https://theinference.org/article/molina-healthcare-beat-estimates-and-held-guidance-yet-its-profit-fell-53-and-the-stock-sank-about-5) and promised the Medicaid margin turn is coming, but its own quarterly filing moved the two biggest pieces of its 2027 growth story to 2028 [1]. The 10-Q filed October 22 says [the Georgia and Texas Medicaid awards now start in late 2027 or 2028 because of procurement protests](https://www.bullished.co/molinas-georgia-and-texas-medicaid-contracts-now-aim-for-late-2027-or-2028-2f13ada8/); the filing does not name who is protesting [1]. The same week, [Jefferies](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/jefferies) raised its price target [on 2027 rate data](https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/jefferies-raises-molina-healthcare-stock-price-target-on-2027-rate-data-93CH-4968447) [2], yet the stock closed Friday at $209.15, down 3.5% [6]. The recovery-year revenue now arrives after the recovery year, and the one live new contract is leaking. ## The filing contradicts the rally case The Georgia award once looked near. Molina was the top scorer, the state announced its intent in December 2024, and the contract was to start July 1, 2025 [1]. In Texas, Molina was notified in early 2024 of the intent to award the STAR and CHIP contract, the state's Medicaid managed care for children and low-income families and its Children's Health Insurance Program [1]. Both are existing Molina states, meant to add share; the prior quarter's 10-Q carried no entries on either protest [1]. That matters for the money question: management [guided 2027 premium to at least $45 billion](https://www.beckerspayer.com/payer/medicaid/stabilization-to-improvement-elevance-molina-see-medicaid-margins-turning-in-2027/) against about $42 billion this year, citing modest Medicaid growth [3]. If the two pending awards stay late, the growth in that guide belongs, for another year, to whoever holds those contracts now. *Chart: **Molina is shrinking Marketplace and holding Medicaid flat while it waits** Column chart of Molina Healthcare premium revenue by segment for the three months ended September 30: Medicaid $8,199M in Q3 2026 versus $8,015M in Q3 2025; Medicare $1,616M versus $1,610M; Marketplace $642M versus $1,197M.* *Premium revenue by segment, three months ended September 30, millions of US dollars. Source: Molina Healthcare Q3 2026 earnings release, Business Wire, October 21, 2026. [7]* ## The one new contract is bleeding [Florida's program for children with complex conditions did start](https://theinference.org/article/molina-rallied-on-a-6-billion-contract-it-will-lose-money-on-in-year-one), on October 1, and full-year guidance absorbs a $1.50-per-share loss from it in the fourth quarter [1]. CBS reported that a medical attorney representing nearly 700 applied behavior analysis providers, therapists serving children with autism, says none of them have been paid since Molina took over the claims pipe, and [Florida's health agency is investigating](https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/aba-providers-unpaid-claims-molina-healthcare-childrens-medical-services-florida/) [4]. This is the implementation risk that rate math never prices. ## Where the judgment lands Molina is shrinking on purpose: $1 billion of Marketplace premium cut for 2027 and the traditional Medicare book exited [1], while work requirements may remove about 260,000 Medicaid members [5]. The bull case rests on [2027 rates of about 6% against 5.5% cost trend](https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/molina-q3-2026-medicaid-recovery-momentum/833650/) [5]. The evidence supports a split verdict: the rate-versus-trend math supports the margin turn, and the filing shows the growth lever arrives a year late. A stock at $209.15 [6] is priced on a recovery whose revenue is now delayed; the question for holders is whether the target raises survive a document that moves the growth out of the recovery year. ## Takeaway The filing, not the call, is the news: Molina's two biggest Medicaid wins slip to late 2027 or 2028 while the recovery-year revenue the Street is pricing arrives in 2028, and the one new contract, Florida's children's plan, is guided to a $1.50-per-share quarterly loss with about 700 ABA providers unpaid. ## Sources 1. [Bullished, Molina's Georgia And Texas Medicaid Contracts Now Aim For Late 2027 Or 2028 (MOH), 23 October 2026](https://www.bullished.co/molinas-georgia-and-texas-medicaid-contracts-now-aim-for-late-2027-or-2028-2f13ada8/) 2. [Investing.com, Jefferies raises Molina Healthcare stock price target on 2027 rate data, 23 October 2026](https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/jefferies-raises-molina-healthcare-stock-price-target-on-2027-rate-data-93CH-4968447) 3. [Becker's Payer Issues, 'Stabilization to improvement': Elevance, Molina see Medicaid margins turning in 2027, 24 October 2026](https://www.beckerspayer.com/payer/medicaid/stabilization-to-improvement-elevance-molina-see-medicaid-margins-turning-in-2027/) 4. [CBS News Miami, South Florida attorney says nearly 700 ABA providers haven't been paid since Molina took over Medicaid claims, 24 October 2026](https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/aba-providers-unpaid-claims-molina-healthcare-childrens-medical-services-florida/) 5. [Healthcare Dive, Molina joins Medicaid recovery bandwagon despite mixed Q3, 22 October 2026](https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/molina-q3-2026-medicaid-recovery-momentum/833650/) 6. [GuruFocus, Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) Shares Fall 3.5% -- What GF Score of 80 Tells Investors, 23 October 2026](https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9140719/molina-healthcare-inc-moh-shares-fall-35-what-gf-score-of-80-tells-investors) 7. [Business Wire, Molina Healthcare Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results, 21 October 2026](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261021455974/en/Molina-Healthcare-Reports-Third-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results) --- Molina's 10-Q moves its two biggest Medicaid wins past the 2027 recovery the Street is pricing — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/molina-s-10-q-moves-its-two-biggest-medicaid-wins-past-the-2027-recovery-the-street-is-pricing