---
title: "Morgan Stanley cut its SpaceX borrowing forecast to $390 billion; KeyBanc sees $475 billion of capex"
description: "Morgan Stanley pulled SpaceX's cash-flow break-even forward four years to 2031 and cut its borrowing forecast by $280 billion. KeyBanc counts $475 billion of capital still needed through 2028, and a Democratic sweep just put the buildout's demand side in doubt."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Data Center"
published: 2026-11-04T14:02:19.480Z
modified: 2026-11-04T14:02:19.480Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/morgan-stanley-cut-its-spacex-borrowing-forecast-to-390-billion-keybanc-sees-475-billion-of-capex
language: en
keywords: "SpaceX, Analyst Calls, Data Centers, Capex, Midterm Elections"
---

# Morgan Stanley cut its SpaceX borrowing forecast to $390 billion; KeyBanc sees $475 billion of capex

> Morgan Stanley pulled SpaceX's cash-flow break-even forward four years to 2031 and cut its borrowing forecast by $280 billion. KeyBanc counts $475 billion of capital still needed through 2028, and a Democratic sweep just put the buildout's demand side in doubt.

## The ballot caught the buildout

[SpaceX](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/spacex) fell 5.24% to $133.91 in overnight trading on November 3 [1], and CNBC's tape had it down more than 6% at the worst [2]. Democrats took the House and the Senate, and in Texas, projected winner Gina Hinojosa [has pledged an immediate moratorium on data centers](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/03/stock-market-today-live-updates.html) [2]. [Wells Fargo](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/wells-fargo) puts about 27% of US data-center gigawatts in Texas [2], the state [Musk](https://theinference.org/markets/people/elon-musk) moved SpaceX's headquarters to. The stock's whole bull case is compute, and compute just met politics.

## Jonas nearly doubles the model

Four months after initiating on the stock, [Morgan Stanley](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley) analyst Adam Jonas has [nearly doubled his numbers](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/morgan-stanley-analyst-says-spcx-053955574.html): 2027 revenue up 93% to $175 billion, 2028 up 84% to $289 billion, operating income up 72% to $119 billion [1]. Free-cash-flow break-even moves to 2031 from 2035, and projected borrowing drops by roughly $280 billion, to $390 billion through 2031 [1].

At $109 billion of 2028 adjusted earnings and a $1.91 trillion market cap, that is 17.6 times earnings, a notch under the S&P 500's 17.7 [1]. The bank also [took SpaceX public and collected record wealth revenue on the deal](https://theinference.org/article/the-spacex-ipo-pays-morgan-stanley-twice-record-wealth-revenue-232-billion-of-new-client-money) [1].

## The other ledger is capex

Third-quarter revenue was $14.6 billion, up 161%, with the Super Intelligence segment at $7.56 billion [3]. Capital spending was $19.6 billion in the same quarter, and CFO Bret Johnsen guided the fourth quarter to $35 billion to $40 billion [3]. That is $48.1 billion spent in nine months, against $38.8 billion of debt and finance leases at September 30, before the [$40 billion GPU debt](https://theinference.org/article/musk-bound-spacex-to-one-chip-supplier-the-bill-is-40-billion-of-debt) closed [6]. KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock models $473 billion of capex in 2027 and $475 billion of additional capital through 2028 [1].

*Chart: **Capex has outrun revenue in five of six reported quarters** Line chart of SpaceX quarterly revenue and capital expenditure from Q1 2025 to Q3 2026; capex sits above revenue in five of six reported quarters and both climb steeply through 2026.*

*Reported quarterly figures from SpaceX's SEC filings; Q4 2025 was not reported. Sources: SpaceX filings. [7]*

*Chart: **Debt has nearly tripled since the end of 2024** Line chart of SpaceX debt and finance leases by quarter, from $13.8 billion at the end of 2024 to $38.8 billion at September 30, 2026; no figures were reported for the first three quarters of 2025.*

*Debt and finance leases from SpaceX's SEC filings, in billions; the first three quarters of 2025 were not reported. Sources: SpaceX filings. [9]*

## Even the bulls count in trillions

The bears hold documents too. Google's head of data-center energy, Amanda Peterson Corio, puts space data centers at up to 100 times the cost of ground ones; short seller Jim Chanos reads that as about $5 trillion per gigawatt and says compute rents accrue to chipmakers like [NVIDIA](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nvidia), with landlords as "financial conduits" [4].

[Bill Ackman](https://theinference.org/markets/people/bill-ackman), who founded Pershing Square, calls the buildout sustainable and hyperscaler credit solid, but says Musk "might have to borrow a trillion dollars", with companies "competing at sovereign levels" [5]. Musk's own figures straddle the camps: $500 billion to $1 trillion of annual recurring revenue by end-2027, against his CFO's [$33 billion to $37 billion revenue guide for Q1 2027](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/investment/elon-musk-sees-1-trillion-for-spacex-his-cfo-s-forecast-crashes-the-party/ar-AA2fLlGW) [3].

## What settles it

The tell is capex against the borrowing line. If fourth-quarter spending lands in Johnsen's range and 2027 tracks toward KeyBanc's $473 billion, then $390 billion through 2031 will not cover it [2][4][8]. Watch the Texas moratorium's first moves [2], and [Starship Flight 15, static-fired on October 29 and expected to fly this month](https://www.space.com/tag/spacex) attempting to catch both booster and ship [4][8]. The two camps do not disagree about SpaceX's future; they disagree about who pays for it.

![A Super Heavy booster descends toward the launch tower's open catch arms at Starbase.](https://storage.googleapis.com/theinference-public/img/d1e8788225e550d9.jpg)

*The booster's tower catch, first pulled off on the 2024 Flight 5 test; Flight 15 is expected to attempt catching both the booster and the ship. (Steve Jurvetson)*

## Takeaway

Morgan Stanley now sees SpaceX borrowing $390 billion through 2031 while KeyBanc counts $475 billion of capital through 2028, and Tuesday's Democratic sweep put the buildout's demand side in doubt.

## Sources

1. [Benzinga via Yahoo Finance, "Morgan Stanley Analyst Says SPCX Will Be Cash Flow Positive by 2031, Four Years Earlier Than Expected, Cuts Borrowing Forecast by Nearly $280 Billion", 4 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/morgan-stanley-analyst-says-spcx-053955574.html)
2. [CNBC, "Stock futures mixed as Democrats win big in midterms, traders bet they will slow data center buildout: Live updates", 4 November 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/03/stock-market-today-live-updates.html)
3. [Benzinga via MSN, "Elon Musk sees $1 trillion for SpaceX. His CFO's forecast crashes the party", 21 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/investment/elon-musk-sees-1-trillion-for-spacex-his-cfo-s-forecast-crashes-the-party/ar-AA2fLlGW)
4. [Yahoo Finance, "Jim Chanos: Bad News for SpaceX Bulls as Space Data Center Math 'Should Give Pause' to Investors", 2 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/jim-chanos-bad-news-spacex-201127548.html)
5. [Benzinga via MSN, "Bill Ackman says Elon Musk may need $1 trillion for SPCX AI buildout: 'Competing at sovereign levels'", 2 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/bill-ackman-says-elon-musk-may-need-1-trillion-for-spcx-ai-buildout-competing-at-sovereign-levels/ar-AA2gzNfO)
6. [Yahoo Finance, "Jim Chanos: SpaceX's $40 Billion Chip Debt Raises 'a Pretty Material $500B Question'", 26 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/jim-chanos-spacex-40-billion-183136278.html)
7. [SpaceX quarterly figures from its SEC filings, via company_series, retrieved 4 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001181412)
8. [Space.com, "SpaceX fires up Starship upper stage ahead of landmark Flight 15 test launch", 29 October 2026](https://www.space.com/tag/spacex)
9. [SpaceX, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 4 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001181412)


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Morgan Stanley cut its SpaceX borrowing forecast to $390 billion; KeyBanc sees $475 billion of capex — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/morgan-stanley-cut-its-spacex-borrowing-forecast-to-390-billion-keybanc-sees-475-billion-of-capex