---
title: "Morgan Stanley Forecasts a $10 Trillion Token Market It Cannot Yet Trade"
description: "Amy Oldenburg said tokenized real-world assets will land between $3 trillion and $10 trillion by 2030 \"without question.\" In the same interview she pushed the bank's own tokenized-equities venue to 2027, for want of anything to sell."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Money"
published: 2026-10-14T13:15:13.493Z
modified: 2026-10-14T13:15:13.493Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/morgan-stanley-forecasts-a-10-trillion-token-market-it-cannot-yet-trade
language: en
keywords: "Tokenization, Crypto, Wall Street, Markets, Regulation"
---

# Morgan Stanley Forecasts a $10 Trillion Token Market It Cannot Yet Trade

> Amy Oldenburg said tokenized real-world assets will land between $3 trillion and $10 trillion by 2030 "without question." In the same interview she pushed the bank's own tokenized-equities venue to 2027, for want of anything to sell.

At Token2049 in Singapore on October 12, 2026, Amy Oldenburg, [Morgan Stanley](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley)'s (NYSE: MS) head of digital asset strategy, put tokenized real-world assets, Treasuries and funds recorded on blockchains, at $3 trillion to $10 trillion by 2030 [1][2][3]. "We'll definitely be within that range without question," [she told The Block](https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-12-morgan-stanley-tokenized-equities-q1-2027-418256) [2]. The same interview carried a smaller fact with a date: her own launch moved right. For holders of tokenization-exposed names, the slip matters more than the forecast, because the premium they trade on rests on institutional buyers the bank's own desk says have not appeared.

## The stage range clears the bank's own research

Morgan Stanley's published view is tamer than its stage talk. A September release put the bank's base case at $2.3 trillion by 2030 [1]; the conference range opened above that figure and topped out more than four times higher. The market being forecast held $39.22 billion on [the rwa.xyz tracker on October 14](https://app.rwa.xyz/), and tokenized US Treasuries, about $14.6 billion, were more than a third of it [1][4]. Reaching the floor of the range means multiplying that market roughly 77 times in a little over four years [5].

*Chart: **The 2030 forecasts against the $39 billion market they are built on** Bar chart comparing the on-chain tokenized real-world-asset market, about $39 billion, with four 2030 forecasts: Morgan Stanley's September base case of $2.3 trillion, Oldenburg's October range of $3 to $10 trillion, and Citi's $5.5 trillion base case.*

*On-chain tokenized real-world assets versus 2030 forecasts, US$ billions; today's value per rwa.xyz on October 14, 2026. Forecasts are projections, not reported figures. [1][4][6]*

## The launch slipped to 2027 for want of products to sell

Tokenized equities were due on Trajectory Cross, the bank's own trading venue, in the second half of 2026, a window Oldenburg set out in March [3]. Trajectory Cross is an alternative trading system, matching institutional orders away from public exchanges such as Nasdaq [2][5]. The date is now the first quarter of 2027, and her explanation was unusually plain: "The client demand really isn't there because the product doesn't exist" [2][7].

She also cited Federal Reserve permissibility, with the Clarity Act market-structure bill stalled, and the GENIUS Act stablecoin law taking effect in January [2][3][7]. Of the announcement boom she said: "There's a lot of FOMO in the institutional space" [2].

Independent counts sit below the stage range. Pantera Capital, a crypto investment firm, tracked 593 tokenized assets worth about $321 billion in the first quarter; 77.6 percent were wrappers around off-chain assets and 2.7 percent native on-chain [6]. [The International Monetary Fund's October 8 report](https://cryptobriefing.com/imf-tokenized-repos-daily-volume/) put tokenized repo, short-term lending against collateral, at $300 billion to $350 billion a day, against roughly $13 trillion of daily US repo activity [8]. Tokenized assets outside repo and stablecoins sat near $65 billion in July [8].

## The dates that will show whether the demand exists

The rails are real, which is the strongest case for the forecast. DTCC, the depository that settles US equities, opens its tokenization service at the end of October, after live production trades on July 15 with more than 30 firms including BlackRock, [Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) and JPMorgan [2][3][5]. The SEC granted [a conditional exemption for certain tokenized US stocks in September](https://coincentral.com/tokenized-real-world-assets-statistics/) [5][9].

Then the GENIUS Act takes effect in January, and the bank's venue is due in the first quarter of 2027; another slip would say the demand never came. Until a bank venue opens, equity-token trading stays in offshore wrappers and on retail venues [5], the memecoin-heavy chains counted in [the October 12 Inference piece on Robinhood Chain](https://theinference.org/article/robinhood-chain-trading-falls-42-while-1-billion-sits-parked-and-robinhood-pays-the-fees-until-december-31).

The institutional-adoption premium priced into tokenization-exposed names rests on buyers Morgan Stanley's own desk says have not appeared.

## Takeaway

Morgan Stanley's stage forecast of a $3 trillion to $10 trillion tokenized asset market sits far above the $39 billion that exists today, and the same interview pushed the bank's own tokenized-equities venue to 2027 because client demand, by its own admission, is not there yet.

## Sources

1. [Crypto Briefing, "Morgan Stanley projects tokenized assets market could hit $10T by 2030", 12 October 2026](https://cryptobriefing.com/morgan-stanley-tokenized-assets-10-trillion-2030/)
2. [The Block, "Morgan Stanley expects to support tokenized equities in Q1 2027, digital asset strategy head says", 12 October 2026](https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-12-morgan-stanley-tokenized-equities-q1-2027-418256)
3. [Crowdfund Insider, "Morgan Stanley Plans Tokenized Equities Support On Its Alternative Trading System (ATS)", 13 October 2026](https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2026/10/318038-morgan-stanley-plans-tokenized-equities-support-on-its-alternative-trading-system-ats/)
4. [RWA.xyz, tokenized real-world asset tracker, distributed asset value as of 14 October 2026](https://app.rwa.xyz/)
5. [FinanceFeeds, "Morgan Stanley Sets Q1 2027 for Tokenized Equities as DTCC Opens the Rails", 12 October 2026](https://financefeeds.com/morgan-stanley-tokenized-equities-q1-2027/)
6. [TheStreet, "Morgan Stanley makes major $10 trillion prediction", October 2026](https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/morgan-stanley-makes-major-10-trillion-prediction)
7. [CryptoTicker, "Morgan Stanley pushes tokenized equities to 2027", 13 October 2026](https://cryptoticker.io/en/morgan-stanley-tokenized-equities-delay/)
8. [Crypto Briefing, "IMF says tokenized repos average $300 billion to $350 billion a day", 8 October 2026](https://cryptobriefing.com/imf-tokenized-repos-daily-volume/)
9. [CoinCentral, "Tokenized Real-World Assets Statistics 2026: Market Size, Growth & Key Data", 13 October 2026](https://coincentral.com/tokenized-real-world-assets-statistics/)


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Morgan Stanley Forecasts a $10 Trillion Token Market It Cannot Yet Trade — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/morgan-stanley-forecasts-a-10-trillion-token-market-it-cannot-yet-trade