--- title: "Murata turns away customers with record JPY 673.9 billion orders; October 30 capex decides" description: "Murata has record orders, a plant filling six years early, and customers it must decline. The capex number due with October 30 results decides whether that rationing lasts into 2029, and the ceramic powder, not the stock price, is the ceiling until 2028." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Chips" published: 2026-10-23T19:07:30.245Z modified: 2026-10-23T19:07:30.245Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/murata-turns-away-customers-with-record-jpy-673-9-billion-orders-october-30-capex-decides language: en keywords: "Murata Manufacturing, MLCC, AI Servers, Components, Capex" --- # Murata turns away customers with record JPY 673.9 billion orders; October 30 capex decides > Murata has record orders, a plant filling six years early, and customers it must decline. The capex number due with October 30 results decides whether that rationing lasts into 2029, and the ceramic powder, not the stock price, is the ceiling until 2028. Murata's president says the company is turning customers away, and on October 30 he will put a number on what he plans to do about it [1][2]. Norio Nakajima told Bloomberg on October 13 that AI demand for Murata's multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) "continues to climb" and that [a new, larger investment is something the company "must do"](https://pogashi.com/2026/10/15/murata-announces-additional-investment-to-expand-mlcc-production-capacity-admits-demand-exceeds-supply-may-lead-to-order-rejections/) [2]. The size of that investment, to be announced with the results [2][4], is the single figure that tells you whether management underwrites this demand into 2029 or keeps rationing it. ## The order book is not in doubt June-quarter orders [hit a record JPY 673.9 billion](https://www.icgoodfind.com/cms/Article/get/article_id/19259), [up 56%](https://theinference.org/article/yageo-posts-a-record-quarter-and-murata-s-orders-jump-56-yet-both-stocks-sit-40-below-highs), with capacitor orders up 85% [1]. Book-to-bill ran 1.34, the seventh straight quarter above 1 [1], and near 1.5 by Nakajima's own account [2]. The Izumo plant in Shimane, Murata's MLCC factory, was supposed to reach full capacity in 2030; it may fill this year [1]. An AI server needs 15,000 to 25,000 of these capacitors, so every rack of the data-center buildout lands directly on Murata's lines [1]. ## The ceiling is powder, not furnaces In April Murata committed JPY 80 billion to add 10 to 15% MLCC capacity over two years, and Nakajima says that is far from enough [1][2]. But the real constraint is upstream: no published figure shows how much ceramic powder capacity exists, and Murata's own fix, Okamura Murata, its ceramics subsidiary, is only now building new powder lines that produce from April 2028 [1]. Until those lines run, extra furnace capex cannot raise output if the powder does not keep pace, which is exactly what Nakajima says he must verify with suppliers [2]. *Chart: **What Murata has committed so far: capacity, powder and buyback** Bar chart comparing Murata's April MLCC capacity commitment of JPY 80 billion, its buyback spend of JPY 76.1 billion through September 2026, and subsidiary Okamura's JPY 9 billion ceramic raw material investment.* *JPY billions. Three different kinds of spend, not one pot: MLCC capacity investment committed April 2026 over two years; buyback cumulative through September 30, 2026, inside a JPY 150 billion authorization; Okamura raw-material line investment starting construction October 2026. Sources: [1][2][3]. [1][2][3]* ## The market is selling the sector, Murata is buying its stock The stock sits near JPY 6,432, roughly half its 52-week high, in a week when [the Nasdaq 100 fell 5.5% on doubts about AI returns](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/asia-stocks-slide-ai-jitters-042543916.html) [4][6]. [Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) disagrees: it [raised its target to USD 82.66 on October 19 and kept a Buy rating](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/murata-manufacturing-stock-goldman-sachs-raises-target-to-usd-82-66/70393971), sell-side seeing value where the market sees financing risk [4]. Meanwhile Murata has [spent JPY 76.1 billion of a JPY 150 billion buyback through September](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/murata-manufacturing-reports-10-401-300-shares-bought-back-for-murata-manufacturing-stock/70337999) [3]. Management returning cash at that rate with a record order book says the open question is the capex decision, not the demand. ## One number on October 30 decides this The capex figure can commit money to furnaces and equipment, but before April 2028 it cannot conjure powder, so what it buys most is a position in the queue for when the bottleneck lifts [1]. A large figure means management believes demand holds through 2029 and is paying now to be ready; a small one means Murata will keep declining orders at 44 times earnings [4]. That distinction, not the quarter's beat against [the $3.53 billion consensus](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/upcoming-murata-manufacturing-mraay-expected-to-post-earnings-on-friday-2026-10-23/) [5], is what the print is for. ## Takeaway October 30's capex number decides whether Murata underwrites AI demand into 2029 or keeps declining orders; until Okamura's powder lines produce from April 2028, extra furnace capex alone cannot raise output. ## Sources 1. [ICgoodFind, Murata Evaluates Early MLCC Plant Expansion on AI Server Demand, 15 October 2026](https://www.icgoodfind.com/cms/Article/get/article_id/19259) 2. [Crestwire, Murata Announces Additional Investment to Expand MLCC Production Capacity, Admits Demand Exceeds Supply, 15 October 2026](https://pogashi.com/2026/10/15/murata-announces-additional-investment-to-expand-mlcc-production-capacity-admits-demand-exceeds-supply-may-lead-to-order-rejections/) 3. [ad-hoc-news.de, Murata Manufacturing reports 10,401,300 shares bought back, 16 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/murata-manufacturing-reports-10-401-300-shares-bought-back-for-murata-manufacturing-stock/70337999) 4. [ad-hoc-news.de, Murata Manufacturing stock: Goldman Sachs raises target to USD 82.66, 23 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/murata-manufacturing-stock-goldman-sachs-raises-target-to-usd-82-66/70393971) 5. [MarketBeat, Murata Manufacturing (MRAAY) Expected to Post Earnings on Friday, 23 October 2026](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/upcoming-murata-manufacturing-mraay-expected-to-post-earnings-on-friday-2026-10-23/) 6. [Yahoo Finance/Investing.com, Asia stocks slide as AI doubts deepen, Korean chips fall, 22 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/asia-stocks-slide-ai-jitters-042543916.html) --- Murata turns away customers with record JPY 673.9 billion orders; October 30 capex decides — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/murata-turns-away-customers-with-record-jpy-673-9-billion-orders-october-30-capex-decides