--- title: "Musk calls Micron's prices reasonable as Micron fell 14% and $150 billion sits locked in" description: "Elon Musk called Micron \"reasonable\" on memory prices and the rest of the market \"extortionate\" as Micron fell 14% in four sessions on a Chinese rival's server-memory plan. Micron's own filings show $150 billion of take-or-pay demand already locked in, which is what makes the grade matter." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Silicon" published: 2026-10-14T03:17:05.966Z modified: 2026-10-14T03:17:05.966Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/musk-calls-micron-s-prices-reasonable-as-micron-fell-14-and-150-billion-sits-locked-in language: en keywords: "Micron, Elon Musk, Memory, Semiconductors, CXMT" --- # Musk calls Micron's prices reasonable as Micron fell 14% and $150 billion sits locked in > Elon Musk called Micron "reasonable" on memory prices and the rest of the market "extortionate" as Micron fell 14% in four sessions on a Chinese rival's server-memory plan. Micron's own filings show $150 billion of take-or-pay demand already locked in, which is what makes the grade matter. ## The biggest memory buyer graded his suppliers in public On October 13 [Elon Musk](https://theinference.org/markets/people/elon-musk) [wrote on X](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mu-stock-edges-overnight-elon-015754373.html) that "[Micron](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/micron) has been reasonable regarding future memory prices, while others have been extortionate, which is something today's customers won't forget," calling Micron's stance "the smart move for long-term customer loyalty" [1]. Musk buys memory at industrial scale: his [xAI](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/xai) runs the Colossus data-center complex near Memphis, and he said on October 2 that [Tesla](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/tesla) [cut the memory on its AI5 robot chip by a third, to 96GB](https://theinference.org/article/musk-halved-the-memory-in-tesla-s-optimus-chip-micron-says-a-humanoid-needs-more-than-200gb), because that was "the only way to get enough volume for Optimus production" [1][2]. He named Samsung, [TSMC](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/tsmc) and Micron as suppliers to his planned Terafab chip project in April, and left the extortionate ones unnamed [1]. ## The tape prices a supply flood; the filings price a lock-in Micron fell more than 14% over four sessions through October 13, closing down 3.6% on the day, after ChangXin Memory Technologies' president, Cao Kanyu, [told a Shanghai conference on October 10](https://technode.com/2026/10/12/cxmt-plans-next-generation-ddr5-server-memory-using-denser-dram-architecture/) that CXMT would ship denser 4F² DDR5 server memory modules by the end of 2026 [1][3][4]. The Philadelphia semiconductor index logged a fifth straight loss, SK Hynix dropped more than 10% in Seoul and Samsung 7.4% [3][5]. What the selling is not pricing: on September 30 Micron [disclosed roughly $150 billion of contracted future revenue under 26 long-term agreements](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/micron-s-150-billion-contract-book-is-bigger-than-its-full-year-revenue/ar-AA2dmzk6), every one take-or-pay, covering more than 35% of its revenue through 2030 and backed by $32 billion of customer commitments, mostly cash deposits [6][7]. That book exceeds the $133.2 billion Micron sold in all of fiscal 2026, and it is counted at minimum pricing where price frameworks are already set [6][7]. Contract prices for DRAM, NAND and high-bandwidth memory had already surged 80–90% in the first quarter of 2026, Counterpoint Research found [1]. ![A Micron DDR5 server memory module, a registered DIMM with ECC, photographed top down](https://storage.googleapis.com/theinference-public/img/414a852ad612a906.jpg) *A Micron DDR5-4800 server module (registered DIMM with ECC), the product class CXMT says it will ship by the end of 2026. (PantheraLeo1359531)* *Chart: **Micron revenue has multiplied sixfold in eight quarters, and the next quarter is guided higher anyway** Column chart of Micron quarterly revenue from Q4 2024 to Q4 2026, rising from $8.7B to $54.2B, with the final quarter drawn as company guidance at $61.5B.* *Quarterly revenue in US$ billions, SEC filings, labeled by calendar quarter. Q4 '26 is company guidance of $61.5B ± $1.5B issued September 30, 2026. [7][8]* ## The caveats that decide it CXMT has yet to show it can build 4F² at commercial yields, its DDR5 cost per bit runs an estimated 30% above the incumbents, and [Apple](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/apple) reportedly walked away from CXMT supply talks after finding no price advantage [3]. Micron's finance chief, Mark Murphy, says [he has "no line of sight" to the shortage easing](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/micron-sounded-alarm-now-musk-184239827.html), and JPMorgan expects shortages through 2028 [1][2]. The post Musk replied to put more than 75% of Micron's fiscal 2027 output as already sold, though that figure is the analyst's relay, not a Micron filing [1]. Watch whether CXMT [ships and qualifies server DDR5 by year-end](https://theinference.org/article/cxmt-says-server-dram-ships-in-2026-two-years-ahead-of-samsung-landing-on-micron-s-87-margin), and whether the suppliers Musk left unnamed start losing orders. In a shortage any maker can name a price; only one is paying for the right to keep its customers when the shortage ends. ## Takeaway Micron's four-session, 14% drop prices a Chinese supply threat, but its filings show about $150 billion of take-or-pay revenue locked through 2030, and Musk's "reasonable" grade is worth most if that book holds. ## Sources 1. [Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance, "MU Stock Edges Up Overnight: Elon Musk Says Micron Is Being 'Reasonable' On Memory Prices While Others Are 'Extortionate'", 13 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mu-stock-edges-overnight-elon-015754373.html) 2. [Yahoo Finance (TIKR), "Micron Sounded the Alarm, Now Musk Proves It: 'The Only Way to Get Enough Volume' for Tesla Means Cutting RAM", 2 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/micron-sounded-alarm-now-musk-184239827.html) 3. [Barchart via Yahoo Finance, "Micron Stock Breaks Its 50-Day Moving Average After CXMT's Breakthrough. Here's the Detail Traders Are Missing.", 13 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/micron-stock-breaks-50-day-162406140.html) 4. [TechNode, "CXMT plans next-generation DDR5 server memory using denser DRAM architecture", 12 October 2026](https://technode.com/2026/10/12/cxmt-plans-next-generation-ddr5-server-memory-using-denser-dram-architecture/) 5. [Investing.com via Yahoo Finance, "U.S. stock futures muted after chip losses drag Wall Street; CPI data awaited", 13 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/u-stock-futures-muted-chip-012425121.html) 6. [Benzinga via MSN, "Micron's $150 billion contract book is bigger than its full-year revenue", 1 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/micron-s-150-billion-contract-book-is-bigger-than-its-full-year-revenue/ar-AA2dmzk6) 7. [Unite.AI, "Micron Posts Record Revenue and Earnings for Fiscal 2026", 30 September 2026](https://www.unite.ai/micron-posts-record-revenue-and-earnings-for-fiscal-2026/) 8. [Micron Technology, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 14 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000723125) --- Musk calls Micron's prices reasonable as Micron fell 14% and $150 billion sits locked in — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/musk-calls-micron-s-prices-reasonable-as-micron-fell-14-and-150-billion-sits-locked-in