---
title: "马斯克称美光存储定价合理:股价四日累跌14%,1500亿美元订单已锁定"
description: "埃隆·马斯克评价美光在存储芯片定价上\"讲道理\"、其他厂商\"近乎敲诈\"。此前,因中国竞争对手公布服务器存储计划,美光股价四个交易日累计下跌14%。美光自己的披露文件显示,1500亿美元\"照付不议\"(take-or-pay)需求已经锁定在手——这正是这句评语分量所在。"
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Silicon"
published: 2026-10-14T03:17:05.966Z
modified: 2026-10-14T03:17:05.966Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/musk-calls-micron-s-prices-reasonable-as-micron-fell-14-and-150-billion-sits-locked-in/zh-CN
language: zh-CN
keywords: "Micron, Elon Musk, Memory, Semiconductors, CXMT"
---

# 马斯克称美光存储定价合理:股价四日累跌14%,1500亿美元订单已锁定

> 埃隆·马斯克评价美光在存储芯片定价上"讲道理"、其他厂商"近乎敲诈"。此前,因中国竞争对手公布服务器存储计划,美光股价四个交易日累计下跌14%。美光自己的披露文件显示,1500亿美元"照付不议"(take-or-pay)需求已经锁定在手——这正是这句评语分量所在。

## 全球最大存储买家公开为供应商打分

10月13日,[埃隆·马斯克](https://theinference.org/markets/people/elon-musk)[在X平台发文](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mu-stock-edges-overnight-elon-015754373.html)称:"[美光](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/micron)在未来的存储芯片定价上一向讲道理,其他厂商则近乎敲诈,今天的客户不会忘记这一点。"他称美光的立场是"赢得长期客户忠诚度的聪明做法"[1]。马斯克以工业级体量采购存储芯片:旗下[xAI](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/xai)运营孟菲斯附近的Colossus数据中心园区;10月2日他表示,[特斯拉](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/tesla)已[将AI5机器人芯片的内存削减三分之一、降至96GB](https://theinference.org/article/musk-halved-the-memory-in-tesla-s-optimus-chip-micron-says-a-humanoid-needs-more-than-200gb),因为这是"为Optimus(擎天柱)量产拿到足够内存供应的唯一办法"[1][2]。今年4月,他点名三星、[台积电](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/tsmc)和美光为规划中的Terafab芯片项目供货;至于哪些厂商"近乎敲诈",他没有透露[1]。

## 盘面计价的是供给冲击,文件计价的是订单锁定

10月10日,长鑫存储(CXMT)总裁曹堪宇[在上海一场会议上表示](https://technode.com/2026/10/12/cxmt-plans-next-generation-ddr5-server-memory-using-denser-dram-architecture/),长鑫存储将在2026年底前出货密度更高的4F² DDR5服务器内存模组[1][3][4]。消息传出后,美光股价连续四个交易日下挫,截至10月13日累计跌幅超过14%,当日收跌3.6%。费城半导体指数连续第五个交易日收跌,SK海力士在首尔市场跌逾10%,三星跌7.4%[3][5]。而这轮抛售并未计价的是:9月30日,美光[披露](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/micron-s-150-billion-contract-book-is-bigger-than-its-full-year-revenue/ar-AA2dmzk6),公司已通过26份长期协议锁定约1500亿美元的未来合同收入,全部为照付不议条款,覆盖截至2030年超过35%的营收,背后有320亿美元的客户承诺作担保,其中大部分为现金保证金[6][7]。这份订单簿的规模,已超过美光2026财年全年的1332亿美元营收;且在价格框架已敲定的部分,上述金额按最低价格计入[6][7]。Counterpoint Research的数据显示,2026年第一季度,DRAM、NAND和高带宽内存(HBM)的合约价格已飙升80%至90%[1]。

![美光DDR5服务器内存模组(带ECC的寄存式DIMM)俯拍照片](https://storage.googleapis.com/theinference-public/img/414a852ad612a906.jpg)

*美光DDR5-4800服务器内存模组(带ECC的寄存式DIMM),正是长鑫存储表示将在2026年底前出货的产品类别。 (PantheraLeo1359531)*

*Chart: **美光营收八个季度增至六倍,下季度指引还要更高** 美光季度营收柱状图,时间跨度为2024年第四季度至2026年第四季度,营收从87亿美元升至542亿美元,最后一个季度按公司指引的615亿美元绘制。*

*季度营收,单位亿美元,按日历季度标注,数据来自SEC文件。2026年第四季度为公司9月30日发布的业绩指引:615亿美元±15亿美元。 [7][8]*

## 决定走向的几个变数

长鑫存储尚未证明自己能以商业化良率量产4F²,据估计,该公司DDR5每比特成本比现有厂商高出30%;据报道,[苹果](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/apple)发现长鑫存储并无价格优势,已退出供货谈判[3]。美光首席财务官马克·墨菲表示,他["看不到"存储芯片短缺缓解的迹象](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/micron-sounded-alarm-now-musk-184239827.html),摩根大通则预计短缺将持续到2028年[1][2]。马斯克回复的那条帖子称,美光2027财年产量已有超过75%售出,不过这一数字出自分析师转述,并非美光的披露文件[1]。接下来值得关注的是:长鑫存储能否[在年底前出货并通过服务器DDR5的认证](https://theinference.org/article/cxmt-says-server-dram-ships-in-2026-two-years-ahead-of-samsung-landing-on-micron-s-87-margin),以及马斯克未点名的那些供应商是否会开始流失订单。短缺之下,谁都可以开价;真正为"短缺结束后留住客户"这项权利买单的,只有一家。

## Takeaway

美光股价四个交易日累计下跌14%,计入了来自中国供给端的威胁;但披露文件显示,公司约1500亿美元"照付不议"收入已锁定至2030年。这份订单簿若能守住,马斯克的"讲道理"评分才最值钱。

## Sources

1. [Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance, "MU Stock Edges Up Overnight: Elon Musk Says Micron Is Being 'Reasonable' On Memory Prices While Others Are 'Extortionate'", 13 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mu-stock-edges-overnight-elon-015754373.html)
2. [Yahoo Finance (TIKR), "Micron Sounded the Alarm, Now Musk Proves It: 'The Only Way to Get Enough Volume' for Tesla Means Cutting RAM", 2 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/micron-sounded-alarm-now-musk-184239827.html)
3. [Barchart via Yahoo Finance, "Micron Stock Breaks Its 50-Day Moving Average After CXMT's Breakthrough. Here's the Detail Traders Are Missing.", 13 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/micron-stock-breaks-50-day-162406140.html)
4. [TechNode, "CXMT plans next-generation DDR5 server memory using denser DRAM architecture", 12 October 2026](https://technode.com/2026/10/12/cxmt-plans-next-generation-ddr5-server-memory-using-denser-dram-architecture/)
5. [Investing.com via Yahoo Finance, "U.S. stock futures muted after chip losses drag Wall Street; CPI data awaited", 13 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/u-stock-futures-muted-chip-012425121.html)
6. [Benzinga via MSN, "Micron's $150 billion contract book is bigger than its full-year revenue", 1 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/micron-s-150-billion-contract-book-is-bigger-than-its-full-year-revenue/ar-AA2dmzk6)
7. [Unite.AI, "Micron Posts Record Revenue and Earnings for Fiscal 2026", 30 September 2026](https://www.unite.ai/micron-posts-record-revenue-and-earnings-for-fiscal-2026/)
8. [Micron Technology, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 14 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000723125)


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马斯克称美光存储定价合理:股价四日累跌14%,1500亿美元订单已锁定 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/musk-calls-micron-s-prices-reasonable-as-micron-fell-14-and-150-billion-sits-locked-in/zh-CN