--- title: "National Grid raised its EPS growth outlook above 13% to 15% on £130 million of one-off venture gains" description: "The UK utility lifted 2026/27 underlying EPS growth guidance above its 13-15% range on £130M of first-half gains, mostly one-off fair-value marks from two transactions in its venture portfolio. £4.5B of grid capex filed with Ofgem today is still only a request, and the November 5 half-year accounts will show what recurs." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Markets" published: 2026-10-15T19:18:39.393Z modified: 2026-10-15T19:18:39.393Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/national-grid-raised-its-eps-growth-outlook-above-13-to-15-on-130-million-of-one-off-venture-gains language: en keywords: "National Grid, Guidance, Utilities, Venture Capital, Capital Expenditure" --- # National Grid raised its EPS growth outlook above 13% to 15% on £130 million of one-off venture gains > The UK utility lifted 2026/27 underlying EPS growth guidance above its 13-15% range on £130M of first-half gains, mostly one-off fair-value marks from two transactions in its venture portfolio. £4.5B of grid capex filed with Ofgem today is still only a request, and the November 5 half-year accounts will show what recurs. ## The lift came from venture revaluations On October 5, 2026 [National Grid](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/national-grid) told investors that underlying earnings per share growth this financial year would land slightly above its 13 to 15 percent guidance range [1]. The wires did not do it: the company said its regulated businesses "[continue to perform in line with expectations](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/national-grid-expects-growth-above-guidance-after-a-strong-first-half-ce785ddbd189f227)" [1]. The lift sits in National Grid Ventures and Other, the unregulated arm that runs the interconnectors linking Britain's grid to its neighbors. It is expected to deliver [around £130 million of extra first-half performance](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4650130-national-grid-raises-full-year-earnings-view-after-strong-h1), mostly one-off fair value gains from two successful capital market transactions in the group's NG Partners investment portfolio, with stronger interconnector results making up the rest [1][2]. ## The venture arm is now an earnings line National Grid Partners (NGP), the Silicon Valley corporate venture arm launched in 2018, has put $600 million into startups and says more than a dozen exits have returned more than it invested [3][4]. It held [just under 5 percent of Dragos](https://globalventuring.com/corporate/energy-and-natural-resources/national-grid-partners-utility-technology-strategy/), the infrastructure cybersecurity firm sold to [Accenture](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/accenture) for $3.25 billion [3]. Last month the unit moved under the new chief technology and innovation officer, Alice Delahunty, with a brief covering grid resilience and cost [3]. Which two transactions produced the £130 million is not public; the accounts will say. ## The regulated growth is still an application Today National Grid [put a package of 19 projects to Ofgem](https://www.nationalgrid.com/national-grid-submits-further-transmission-investment-proposals-ofgem-support-britains-energy), the UK energy regulator, under the RIIO-T3 load re-opener, the route for transmission spending added to the current price control [5]. The package totals about £4.5 billion: £2.3 billion covers six projects submitted in May and already under Ofgem's assessment, and £2.2 billion is new [5]. It sits inside a plan of roughly £31 billion of England and Wales transmission investment by 2031 [5], within at least £70 billion of group-wide network spending [3]. Ofgem assesses every project before approval, against the company's own framing of keeping "long term costs down for consumers" [5]. The group is spending into that queue either way: capex has more than doubled since 2021, from $5.8 billion to $13.2 billion, while revenue went sideways [6]. *Chart: **Capex has more than doubled since 2021 while revenue went sideways** Line chart of National Grid group capex and revenue, fiscal years 2021 to 2026, in billions of US dollars* *National Grid group, fiscal years ending March 31, US$ billions, reported figures from its SEC filings. [6]* ## What November 5 settles [J.P. Morgan](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/jpmorgan-chase) analysts made the defense on the record: "Over 90% of the company's investments in the coming years will be in regulated businesses, underpinned by robust frameworks" [2]. That is fair, and NGP says its exits have returned more than it invested [3]. But the update itself calls the gains one-off, and fair value marks can reverse as easily as they book. The shares, at 1,154.5 pence on October 12, [sit 19.19 percent below the 52-week high of 1,428.5 pence](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/national-grid-lifts-earnings-outlook-national-grid-stock-sits-19-19-percent-below-high/70299425) [7]. RBC Capital Markets analysts kept a Sector Perform rating and a 1,375 pence target [7]. Half-year results on November 5, for the six months to September 30, will break out how much of the £130 million recurs [7]. Ofgem's determinations on the 19 projects set when the regulated spending can start earning. *Chart: **Shares sit 19.19 percent below the 52-week high** Bar chart of National Grid share price on October 12 2026, RBC's 1,375 pence target and the 52-week high of 1,428.5 pence* *National Grid share price in pence on October 12, 2026, against RBC Capital Markets' price target and the 52-week high. [7]* ## Takeaway The earnings lift is venture marks, not the wires: regulated performance stays in line, £4.5 billion of grid spending is still only a request, and the November 5 half-year accounts will show how much of the £130 million recurs. ## Sources 1. [Alliance News via MarketScreener, National Grid expects growth above guidance after a strong first half, 5 October 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/national-grid-expects-growth-above-guidance-after-a-strong-first-half-ce785ddbd189f227) 2. [Seeking Alpha, National Grid raises full-year earnings view after strong H1, 5 October 2026](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4650130-national-grid-raises-full-year-earnings-view-after-strong-h1) 3. [Global Venturing, National Grid Partners takes bigger role in utility's technology strategy, 15 October 2026](https://globalventuring.com/corporate/energy-and-natural-resources/national-grid-partners-utility-technology-strategy/) 4. [National Grid, National Grid Partners (corporate page), retrieved 15 October 2026](https://www.nationalgrid.com/national-grid-partners) 5. [National Grid press release, National Grid submits further transmission investment proposals to Ofgem to support Britain's energy future, 15 October 2026](https://www.nationalgrid.com/national-grid-submits-further-transmission-investment-proposals-ofgem-support-britains-energy) 6. [National Grid, annual figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 15 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001004315) 7. [ad-hoc-news, National Grid lifts earnings outlook: National Grid stock sits 19.19 percent below high, 12 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/national-grid-lifts-earnings-outlook-national-grid-stock-sits-19-19-percent-below-high/70299425) --- National Grid raised its EPS growth outlook above 13% to 15% on £130 million of one-off venture gains — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/national-grid-raised-its-eps-growth-outlook-above-13-to-15-on-130-million-of-one-off-venture-gains