--- title: "Nebius beat Q3 with $980.8 million revenue, then sank as much as 16% on a $40-45 billion 2027 capex guide" description: "Adjusted EBITDA swung to a $465.8 million profit on revenue up 571%, yet the shares sank as much as 16% after a first 2027 outlook put capex at $40–45 billion. Customer prepayments and debt fund the $7.3 billion quarterly build; shareholders carry the risk." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Data Center" published: 2026-11-12T17:25:29.166Z modified: 2026-11-12T17:25:29.166Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/nebius-beat-q3-with-980-8-million-revenue-then-sank-as-much-as-16-on-a-40-45-billion-2027-capex-guide language: en keywords: "Nebius, Capex, Earnings, Data Centers, AI Cloud" --- # Nebius beat Q3 with $980.8 million revenue, then sank as much as 16% on a $40-45 billion 2027 capex guide > Adjusted EBITDA swung to a $465.8 million profit on revenue up 571%, yet the shares sank as much as 16% after a first 2027 outlook put capex at $40–45 billion. Customer prepayments and debt fund the $7.3 billion quarterly build; shareholders carry the risk. [Nebius](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nebius) Group, the Amsterdam-based AI cloud that rents out data centers packed with [Nvidia](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nvidia) GPUs, [reported third-quarter revenue of $980.8 million](https://finviz.com/news/421548/nebius-reports-third-quarter-2026-financial-results) on November 12, up 571% from $146.1 million a year earlier and above the $907.5 million analysts expected [1][2][3]. Adjusted EBITDA swung to $465.8 million from a $5.2 million loss, a 47.5% margin, and the GAAP net loss from continuing operations narrowed to $37.5 million, or 13 cents a share [1][3]. The shares still sank as much as 16% on Thursday, a day after closing up 15.4% at $154.69 as rival AI-cloud operator [CoreWeave](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/coreweave)'s beat lifted the whole sector [3][5][6]. ## Why a clean beat sold off The release carried its own discounts. Management called about $325 million of the quarter's revenue non-recurring, the first phase of a new asset-light partnership [4]. Full-year revenue now lands at the low end of the $3.0–3.4 billion range, against [FactSet](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/factset)'s $3.35 billion, after third-party data-center deliveries slipped; New Jersey capacity moved to the second quarter of 2027 [3][4]. Capex did the rest. [Guidance for 2026 rose to $27 billion](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/nebius-falls-10-as-company-expects-increased-2026-capex-spend-issues-weak-outlook/ar-AA2hi7Qc) from $20–25 billion, and a first 2027 outlook set spending at $40–45 billion, far above FactSet's $28.77 billion consensus, on $12–13 billion of revenue with pre-tax breakeven targeted for the fourth quarter of 2027 [3][4]. *Chart: **The first 2027 capex guide lands $11–16 billion above the consensus** Column chart of Nebius capex plans in billions of dollars: $22.5 billion for 2026 before the November 12 raise, $27 billion after it, and $42.5 billion for 2027, against a reference line at the $28.8 billion FactSet consensus* *Nebius capex plans in billions of US dollars, at the midpoint where the company gave a range: the 2026 plan before and after the November 12 raise ($20–25 billion, then $27 billion), and the first 2027 outlook of $40–45 billion against FactSet's $28.77 billion 2027 consensus. All three bars are company guidance. [3][4]* ## The build still eats the cash *Chart: **Nebius capex outran revenue in every quarter since late 2024, seven to one in Q3 2026** Column chart of Nebius quarterly revenue and capital expenditure in billions of US dollars from Q4 2024 to Q3 2026, with capex exceeding revenue every quarter and reaching $7.3 billion in Q3 2026* *Quarterly purchases of property, equipment and intangible assets versus revenue, in billions of US dollars. Q3 2026 from the November 12, 2026, earnings release; earlier quarters from Nebius SEC filings. [1][8]* [Capex hit a record $7.3 billion](https://theinference.org/article/nebius-spent-5-65-billion-on-capex-against-582-million-of-revenue-and-now-wants-gpu-backed-loans) in the quarter, while operating cash flow ran at negative $273 million, its first negative quarter of 2026 after $4.23 billion of inflows over nine months [1]. Prepayments added $3.43 billion of deferred revenue; receivables swallowed $3.76 billion [1]. The bridge is borrowing. Nebius raised $5.75 billion of debt financing in the quarter [3], and the balance sheet now carries $14.2 billion of debt, $187.5 million current plus $14.0 billion non-current, against $4.1 billion at year-end [1]. Founder and chief executive Arkady Volozh said prepayments on Q3 agreements covered more than 100% of the associated capex [4]. The quarter ended with $7.4 billion of cash and equivalents [1]. ## A split sell-side, and a fourth quarter to settle it The sell-side straddles the $154.69 close: [Rosenblatt initiated at Buy with a $304 target](https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/previews/26/11/63156890/nebius-q3-preview-stock-down-47-from-highs-market-expert-says-investors-could-get-relief-rally), [Citigroup](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/citigroup) held Buy at $265 after cutting from $324, and Piper Sandler kept its Neutral rating and cut its target to $185 [2]. CoreWeave [printed $3.66 billion of revenue and a $132.5 billion backlog](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/coreweave-reports-strong-third-quarter-210500404.html) [5]. The next reading is fourth-quarter revenue: the low end of the 2026 guide implies about $1.04 billion, $3.0 billion minus the $1.96 billion already booked, against a $1.48 billion consensus [1][7]. The quarter will show whether prepayments keep arriving faster than the machines. ## Takeaway Nebius beat Q3 and swung to an EBITDA profit, but a first 2027 capex guide of $40–45 billion, far above the $28.8 billion consensus, is what turned the quarter into a 16% selloff. ## Sources 1. [Business Wire via Finviz, Nebius reports third quarter 2026 financial results, 12 November 2026](https://finviz.com/news/421548/nebius-reports-third-quarter-2026-financial-results) 2. [Benzinga, Nebius Q3 Preview: Stock Down 47% From Highs, Market Expert Says Investors Could Get 'Relief Rally', 11 November 2026](https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/previews/26/11/63156890/nebius-q3-preview-stock-down-47-from-highs-market-expert-says-investors-could-get-relief-rally) 3. [CNBC (Jordan Novet) via MSN, Nebius falls 16% as company expects increased 2026 capex spend, issues weak outlook, 12 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/nebius-falls-10-as-company-expects-increased-2026-capex-spend-issues-weak-outlook/ar-AA2hi7Qc) 4. [24/7 Wall St., Nebius Group Q3 2026: Big Beat, $12 Billion to $13 Billion 2027 Outlook, 12 November 2026](https://247wallst.com/cards/nebius-group-q3-2026-earnings-nbis-01m782faxg92vg6x5tk3nfx164) 5. [Business Wire via Yahoo Finance, CoreWeave Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results, 10 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/coreweave-reports-strong-third-quarter-210500404.html) 6. [Blockonomi, Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) Stock: Q3 EBITDA Hits $465.8 Million as Revenue Jumps 571%, 12 November 2026](https://blockonomi.com/nebius-group-n-v-nbis-stock-q3-ebitda-hits-465-8-million-as-revenue-jumps-571/) 7. [Zacks Equity Research via Yahoo Finance, Nebius Group (NBIS) Surpasses Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates, 12 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nebius-group-nbis-surpasses-q3-123002662.html) 8. [Nebius, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 12 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001513845) --- Nebius beat Q3 with $980.8 million revenue, then sank as much as 16% on a $40-45 billion 2027 capex guide — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/nebius-beat-q3-with-980-8-million-revenue-then-sank-as-much-as-16-on-a-40-45-billion-2027-capex-guide