---
title: "Nebius has 5 GW of power signed and about 200 MW billing: the ladder that sets its ARR guide"
description: "Nebius's capacity is counted in gigawatts while its revenue arrives in megawatts. Working the ladder from contracted to connected to billing power shows what the December guide really assumes, what a customer prepayment is, and why the debt market already ranks the neoclouds."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Data Center"
published: 2026-11-05T21:08:38.755Z
modified: 2026-11-06T03:34:06.002Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/nebius-has-5-gw-of-power-signed-and-about-200-mw-billing-the-ladder-that-sets-its-arr-guide
language: en
keywords: "Nebius, AI Infrastructure, Data Center, Neocloud, Power"
---

# Nebius has 5 GW of power signed and about 200 MW billing: the ladder that sets its ARR guide

> Nebius's capacity is counted in gigawatts while its revenue arrives in megawatts. Working the ladder from contracted to connected to billing power shows what the December guide really assumes, what a customer prepayment is, and why the debt market already ranks the neoclouds.

## Five gigawatts signed, about 200 megawatts billing

[Nebius](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nebius) raised its year-end target for contracted power to 5 gigawatts in August, and October took a third off the stock anyway: $154.14 at the October 30 close from $235.88 at the end of September, and near $118 in the November 5 session [1][22]. The question is what a signed gigawatt is worth in December revenue, and the answer is less than the headline suggests.

## The third rung of the ladder is the only one that pays

Nebius separates three rungs: contracted power, [secured by land and power contracts](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926059872/tm2614392d1_ex99-2.htm); connected power, running into built and equipped buildings; and active power, consumed by installed equipment and available to earn [4]. It guides to 5,000 megawatts on the first rung at year-end, 800 to 1,000 on the second, and publishes no number for the third [1][4].

That rung can be worked out. [Run-rate revenue was $3.0 billion in June](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094568/tm2622968d1_ex99-2.htm) [1]. At the $20 million per megawatt the landmark second-quarter deals yield, that is 150 megawatts billing; at $15 million, 200; at $12 million on older deals, 250 [1]. A twentieth to a thirtieth of the contracted headline was earning money in June. [Bank of America](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/bank-of-america) puts about 525 megawatts active at the end of the third quarter, against 170 at the start of the year [16].

*The rest of this analysis, with our fair value and rating, is for subscribers: https://theinference.org/article/nebius-has-5-gw-of-power-signed-and-about-200-mw-billing-the-ladder-that-sets-its-arr-guide*

## Sources

1. [Nebius Group, letter to shareholders, Q2 2026, furnished on Form 6-K exhibit 99.2, 12 August 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094568/tm2622968d1_ex99-2.htm)
2. [Nebius Group, second quarter 2026 results release, Form 6-K exhibit 99.1, 12 August 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094568/tm2622968d1_ex99-1.htm)
3. [Nebius Group, Q2 2026 earnings call transcript, 12 August 2026 (StockAnalysis transcript)](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nbis/transcripts/655490-q2-2026/)
4. [Nebius Group, letter to shareholders, Q1 2026, Form 6-K exhibit, 13 May 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926059872/tm2614392d1_ex99-2.htm)
5. [Nebius Group, unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements at 30 June 2026, Form 6-K exhibit, 12 August 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094844/nbis-20260812xex99d2.htm)
6. [Nebius Group, operating and financial review for the six months to 30 June 2026, Form 6-K exhibit, 12 August 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094844/nbis-20260812xex99d1.htm)
7. [Nebius Group, annual report on Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025, filed 30 April 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926052948/0001104659-26-052948-index.htm)
8. [Nebius Group, Form 6-K: $3.5 billion senior secured term loan facility with Citibank, 22 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926117978/0001104659-26-117978-index.htm)
9. [Nebius Group, Form 6-K: closing of $5.75 billion convertible senior notes, 24 August 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926100347/0001104659-26-100347-index.htm)
10. [Nebius Group, Form 6-K: pricing of $4.0 billion convertible senior notes, 18 March 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926029863/0001104659-26-029863-index.htm)
11. [Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Secured Overnight Financing Rate, 3.94 percent on 4 November 2026 (FRED series SOFR)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=SOFR)
12. [CoreWeave, press release: $2.6 billion delayed draw term loan (DDTL 5.5) at SOFR plus 5.50 percent, Form 8-K exhibit, 10 August 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000357/ex991pr.htm)
13. [The Inference, 'CoreWeave borrowed $2.6 billion for five years against contracts averaging three, one point dearer than May', 2 November 2026](https://theinference.org/article/coreweave-borrowed-2-6-billion-for-five-years-against-contracts-averaging-three-one-point-dearer-than-may)
14. [The Inference, 'Nebius borrows $3.5 billion 12 points cheaper than CoreWeave, whose bonds yield 15%', 22 October 2026](https://theinference.org/article/nebius-borrows-3-5-billion-12-points-cheaper-than-coreweave-whose-bonds-yield-15)
15. [The Inference, 'Nebius Borrowed Against Microsoft and Meta to Build the Machine They Prepaid', 7 October 2026](https://theinference.org/article/nebius-borrowed-against-microsoft-and-meta-to-build-the-machine-they-prepaid)
16. [Blockspace Media, 'BofA reiterates Nebius buy and $310 target, lifts revenue estimates ahead of third quarter', 29 October 2026](https://blockspace.media/insight/nebius-buy-rating-310-target/)
17. [Reuters (via StreetInsider), 'Short sellers make $6 billion in unrealized profits as neoclouds slide on AI debt fears', ORTEX data, 22 October 2026](https://www.streetinsider.com/Reuters/Short+sellers+make+%246+billion+in+unrealized+profits+as+neoclouds+slide+on+AI+debt+fears/27220302.html)
18. [Anthropic PBC, Form S-1/A-1, filed 2 November 2026 (SpaceX compute arrangements of up to $120.5 billion through 2029)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026068676/anthropicpbc-sx1ax1.htm)
19. [The Inference, 'Anthropic can walk from $84.5 billion of SpaceX compute on 90 days' notice; the stock is at 103 times sales', 16 October 2026](https://theinference.org/article/anthropic-can-walk-from-84-5-billion-of-spacex-compute-on-90-days-notice-the-stock-is-at-103-times-sales)
20. [Wood Mackenzie US data center pipeline, Q3 2026, reported by T&D World, 28 October 2026](https://www.tdworld.com/electric-utility-operations/article/55415092/us-data-center-pipeline-grows-by-54-gw-as-bans-go-into-force)
21. [The Inference, 'Democrats won Texas on a data-center pause; Vistra fell as much as 15.5% and CoreWeave's bonds hit 79.5 cents', 4 November 2026](https://theinference.org/article/democrats-won-texas-on-a-data-center-pause-vistra-fell-as-much-as-15-5-and-coreweave-s-bonds-hit-79-5-cents)
22. The Inference market data: exchange closing prices for NBIS and CRWV, and the H100, A100 and B200 GPU rental price indexes, retrieved 5 November 2026
23. [The Inference, 'Nebius reports November 12. Its $3.5 billion Citi loan comes due October 2027', 30 October 2026](https://theinference.org/article/nebius-reports-november-12-its-3-5-billion-citi-loan-comes-due-october-2027)
24. The Inference valuation model and market data for Nebius: discounted cash flow on the author's scenarios, and risk and ratio files, 5 November 2026
25. [The Inference, 'CoreWeave's $104.2 billion backlog depends on 2.7 gigawatts it has not switched on', 26 October 2026](https://theinference.org/article/coreweave-s-104-2-billion-backlog-depends-on-2-7-gigawatts-it-has-not-switched-on)
26. [Nebius, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 5 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001513845)


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Nebius has 5 GW of power signed and about 200 MW billing: the ladder that sets its ARR guide — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/nebius-has-5-gw-of-power-signed-and-about-200-mw-billing-the-ladder-that-sets-its-arr-guide