---
title: "Nebius says customers prepay for all new capacity, but $4.04 billion of receivables is uncollected"
description: "Nebius's CEO says customers now fund the $40–45 billion 2027 build before the machines arrive, the same answer CoreWeave gave on November 10. The catch for NBIS and CRWV holders: third-quarter operating cash flow went negative and $4.04 billion of bills sit uncollected."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Data Center"
published: 2026-11-14T15:08:15.780Z
modified: 2026-11-14T15:08:15.780Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/nebius-says-customers-prepay-for-all-new-capacity-but-4-04-billion-of-receivables-is-uncollected
language: en
keywords: "Nebius, CoreWeave, GPU Cloud, AI Infrastructure, Earnings"
---

# Nebius says customers prepay for all new capacity, but $4.04 billion of receivables is uncollected

> Nebius's CEO says customers now fund the $40–45 billion 2027 build before the machines arrive, the same answer CoreWeave gave on November 10. The catch for NBIS and CRWV holders: third-quarter operating cash flow went negative and $4.04 billion of bills sit uncollected.

## A 16% selloff, answered with a billing term

Arkady Volozh opened [Nebius](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nebius)'s earnings call with the question that had just knocked 16% off his stock: "How fast can AI build-out happen, and who will pay for it?" [1][5] The November 12 report had [lifted 2026 capex guidance to about $27 billion](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nebius-ceo-customer-prepayments-now-101158144.html) and set 2027 spending at $40–45 billion, where the [FactSet](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/factset) consensus sat at $28.77 billion [1]. His answer on who pays: prepayments on new contracts "now cover more than 100% of the capital needed to bring this contracted capacity online," up from 50–60% last quarter [1]. [The Inference covered the numbers](https://theinference.org/article/nebius-beat-q3-with-980-8-million-revenue-then-sank-as-much-as-16-on-a-40-45-billion-2027-capex-guide); the funding answer is what is new since.

## Customers are paying before the machines arrive

The plan leans on cash arriving ahead of the steel. Nebius expects $10 billion of committed prepayments this year and $17–20 billion in 2027, and [its shareholder letter](https://casrai.org/news/nebius-40-billion-planned-ai-cloud-spending-2026) says prepayments plus asset-backed loans on investment-grade contracts should fund 75–85% of 2027 capex [1][3][4]. Third-quarter deals carried annual contract value above $25 million per megawatt, up from $20–25 million, with payback shortened to one year and seven months [1][2]. Customers have signed more than $12 billion of new contracts since the quarter began, on top of commitments above $40 billion led by [Microsoft](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/microsoft) at up to $19.4 billion [2][3].

*Chart: **Prepayments cover about a third of 2026 capex, and under half of 2027's** Column chart comparing Nebius's capex guidance with committed customer prepayments for 2026 and 2027, in US dollars billions. Capex is about $27 billion in 2026 rising to a $40 to $45 billion range in 2027; prepayments are $10 billion in 2026 and a $17 to $20 billion range in 2027.*

*Capex guidance and committed customer prepayments, US$ billions, Nebius Group. 2027 figures are guidance shown at the midpoint of the company's range; prepayments are commitments the company expects, not cash received. Sources: Nebius's November 12 shareholder letter and coverage of it. [1][3][4]*

## The cash has not landed

The third-quarter tape is the counterweight. Operating cash flow, above $2 billion a quarter in the first half, flipped to negative $273 million against $465.8 million of adjusted EBITDA, its first negative quarter in a year [1][9].

Receivables hit $4.04 billion on September 30, up $3.76 billion in one quarter and nearly four times the period's $980.8 million of revenue, while deferred revenue rose $3.43 billion [1].

Delivery is slipping too: colocation sites including New Jersey are behind schedule, pushing planned revenue into 2027 and [trimming the 2026 revenue guide to $3.0–3.2 billion](https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/nebius-pares-back-2026-revenue-forecast-on-capacity-delays-shares-slump/ar-AA2hjnJl) [1][2][5]. CFO Dado Alonso's answer: "We have no doubt that this capacity will be sold. Clients are looking for capacity already for 2028" [5].

*Chart: **Operating cash flow flipped negative as capex hit $7.3 billion** Line chart of Nebius quarterly operating cash flow and capital expenditure from Q4 2025 to Q3 2026, showing cash flow above $2 billion in early 2026 before turning negative while capex climbs to $7.3 billion.*

*Quarterly operating cash flow and capital expenditure, US$ billions, Nebius Group, Q4 2025 to Q3 2026, from its SEC filings. [9][1]*

## CoreWeave made the same argument two days earlier

[CoreWeave](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/coreweave) (CRWV), the other big listed neocloud, as the GPU-rental firms are known, gave the same answer on November 10 [6][7]. "We will not use the unsecured debt market to fund our business at current yields, nor do we need to," CEO [Michael Intrator](https://theinference.org/markets/people/michael-intrator) said, alongside [about $9 billion of customer prepayments expected over three months](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/coreweave-turns-to-customer-prepayments-shorter-contracts-to-fund-ai-growth/ar-AA2hfe6K) [6][7].

Bond investors are the holdouts: [some CoreWeave yields traded above 15% before the print](https://theinference.org/article/coreweave-bonds-hit-a-record-14-5-yield-as-six-ai-cloud-stocks-sink-gartner-sees-80-gone-by-2030), on $46.9 billion of debt [6][7]. Jasper Zhang, CEO of GPU marketplace Hyperbolic, says the market is punishing delivery, execution and leverage, not GPU demand [8]. Nebius carries $14.19 billion of debt excluding leases against $7.43 billion of cash [1].

*Chart: **CoreWeave has spent $40.8 billion against $9.4 billion of operating cash flow since mid-2024** Line chart of CoreWeave quarterly operating cash flow and capital expenditure from Q2 2024 to Q3 2026, in US dollars billions. Capex climbs from $2.2 billion to $9.4 billion while operating cash flow stays between negative $0.3 billion and $3.0 billion.*

*Quarterly operating cash flow and capital expenditure, US$ billions, CoreWeave, Q2 2024 to Q3 2026, from its SEC filings. The ten quarters add up to $40.8 billion of capex and $9.4 billion of operating cash flow. [10]*

## December's bank statement decides it

Atreides Management's [Gavin Baker](https://theinference.org/markets/people/gavin-baker) set the scoreboard on November 10: when customers prepay, "OCF to EBITDA is the most important metric," and a company collecting up front should run cash ahead of earnings [1]. If the $4.04 billion of receivables clears by December 31, fourth-quarter operating cash flow swings back above EBITDA, right where the bulls need it [1]. The 75–85% answer is only as good as December's bank statement [1].

## Takeaway

Nebius says customer cash now funds its build, so long as the bills get paid: operating cash flow went negative in the third quarter and $4.04 billion of receivables sat uncollected on September 30.

## Sources

1. [Yahoo Finance (TIKR), "Nebius CEO: Customer Prepayments Now Cover 'More Than 100%' of New Capacity, Up From 50%", 14 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nebius-ceo-customer-prepayments-now-101158144.html)
2. [Unite.AI, "Nebius Deal Prepayments Exceed Capex as Colocation Delays Shift Revenue", 12 November 2026](https://www.unite.ai/nebius-deal-prepayments-exceed-capex-as-colocation-delays-shift-revenue/)
3. [Crypto Briefing, "Nebius plans $40 billion to $45 billion in 2027 capex, leaning on customer prepayments", 12 November 2026](https://cryptobriefing.com/nebius-2027-capex-customer-prepayments/)
4. [CASRAI News, "Nebius Outlines $40B AI Cloud Spending Plan", 12 November 2026](https://casrai.org/news/nebius-40-billion-planned-ai-cloud-spending-2026)
5. [Reuters (via MSN), "Nebius pares back 2026 revenue forecast on capacity delays, shares slump", 12 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/nebius-pares-back-2026-revenue-forecast-on-capacity-delays-shares-slump/ar-AA2hjnJl)
6. [TechCrunch (via MSN), "CoreWeave turns to customer prepayments, shorter contracts to fund AI growth", 11 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/coreweave-turns-to-customer-prepayments-shorter-contracts-to-fund-ai-growth/ar-AA2hfe6K)
7. [The Next Web, "CoreWeave rules out new unsecured debt as revenue jumps 168% to $3.66bn", 11 November 2026](https://thenextweb.com/news/coreweave-forecast-q3-2026-revenue-unsecured-debt)
8. [Yahoo Finance / Blockspace Live, "CoreWeave, Nebius Selloffs Not Due to GPU Demand, Says Hyperbolic CEO", 13 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/coreweave-nebius-selloffs-not-due-205828115.html)
9. [Nebius Group N.V., quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 14 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001513845)
10. [CoreWeave, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 14 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001769628)


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Nebius says customers prepay for all new capacity, but $4.04 billion of receivables is uncollected — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/nebius-says-customers-prepay-for-all-new-capacity-but-4-04-billion-of-receivables-is-uncollected