--- title: "Netflix at a two-year low of $61.39: $12 billion of cash against fewer app opens" description: "Bloomberg's engagement report pushed Netflix to a two-year low of $61.39; early Uber investor Jason Calacanis bought 3,000 shares at $63, and the trade now turns on World Cup bids due November 19 and January's 2027 guidance." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Applications" published: 2026-10-30T16:11:29.260Z modified: 2026-10-30T16:11:29.260Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/netflix-at-a-two-year-low-of-61-39-12-billion-of-cash-against-fewer-app-opens language: en keywords: "Netflix, Streaming, Stock Moves, Advertising, Sports Rights" --- # Netflix at a two-year low of $61.39: $12 billion of cash against fewer app opens > Bloomberg's engagement report pushed Netflix to a two-year low of $61.39; early Uber investor Jason Calacanis bought 3,000 shares at $63, and the trade now turns on World Cup bids due November 19 and January's 2027 guidance. ## The market has started calling Netflix a declining business [Netflix](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/netflix) shares closed at $61.39 on October 29, a two-year low, and are [down about 33% this year](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-did-nflx-mbly-app-032345563.html) [1]. The fresh blow came from [a Bloomberg report on October 25](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/media/entertainment/media/netflix-users-are-watching-less-not-opening-the-app-as-often/articleshow/135194861.cms) that members open the app on fewer days a month than they did a couple of years ago, a usage metric Netflix tracks as qualified play days; the same reporting noted the company had fired both of its content chiefs and cut 6% of staff [2]. The story pulled nearly 18,000 upvotes on r/movies and thousands more on r/entertainment within days [3][4]. Wolfe Research downgraded the stock the same week, arguing engagement is not responding to higher investment [5]. ## The facts both camps accept Total viewing rose a couple of percentage points in the first half of 2026 only because Netflix added members; each member is watching less [2]. [Apptopia found](https://www.primetimer.com/news/netflix-growth-slumps-as-us-user-engagement-declines) the share of US subscribers who did not open the app rose 16.6% year over year in the third quarter [8]. Nielsen's Gauge put [YouTube](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/alphabet) at a record 15.8% of US television time in August, with Netflix at 7.7% [8]. Yet churn has held steady near 2%, the best in the industry by Antenna's count, and no cancellation wave followed [2]. Subscribers are paying, not watching. *Chart: **YouTube now takes about twice Netflix's share of US TV time** Bars ranking share of US television viewing in August 2026: YouTube 15.8%, Disney 9.3%, Netflix 7.7%.* *Share of US television viewing, percent, Nielsen Gauge data for August 2026 as reported by Primetimer, October 27, 2026. Source: Nielsen via Primetimer. [8]* ## The bull exhibit is cash, not clicks Free cash flow went from a $130 million burn in 2021 to $9.5 billion in 2025, and management expects about $12 billion this year [6]. That is Joe Carlson's case: Netflix was "failing" the first two times while burning or flat on cash, and now it prints money [6]. Jason Calacanis, the early Uber investor, [called it "a screaming buy" on October 27](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/netflix-screaming-buy-says-early-154510578.html), bought 3,000 shares at $63 and set a $90 twelve-month target, 43% above his cost [6]. At 17x forward earnings against a 33x five-year average, with the Street's average target at $89 [6], Morningstar also sees the lower valuation as an opening for longer-horizon investors [1]. *Chart: **The cash engine the bulls point to: from a $130 million burn to about $12 billion** Bars showing free cash flow: a $130 million burn in 2021, $9.5 billion in 2025, and about $12 billion expected for 2026 (dashed, guidance).* *Netflix free cash flow, $ billions, fiscal 2021 and 2025 actual; 2026 is management guidance, drawn as an estimate. Source: Yahoo Finance (TIKR), October 29, 2026. [6]* ## The bear case hides inside the bull case's own numbers Revenue growth slowed from 17.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 11.8% in the third, and a fourth-quarter guide of 11.5% would make four straight slowdowns [6]. Growth now comes from price increases and advertising rather than watch time [5], and Netflix cut its 2026 ad forecast to $2.7 billion, as [our October 20 coverage of the job cuts and ad shortfall](https://theinference.org/article/netflix-cut-1-000-jobs-then-took-300-million-off-its-2026-ad-forecast-new-markets-open-march-2027) reported [9]. *Chart: **Four of the last five quarters show revenue growth slowing** Line chart of Netflix year-over-year revenue growth over ten quarters, falling from 17.6% in Q4 2025 to 11.8% in Q3 2026.* *Netflix quarterly revenue growth, percent year over year, Q2 2024 to Q3 2026. Source: Netflix quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved October 30, 2026. [10]* Content cash payments rose 18.5% in nine months, nearly twice the 9.5% rise in content amortization [6], so the cash the bulls cite is being bid for content. Calacanis's own cure, up to $50 million in stock for elite directors, adds to that bill [6]. ## Two dates set the verdict [FIFA's bid deadline](https://bestmediainfo.com/mediainfo/mediainfo-marketing/fifa-invites-bids-for-us-media-rights-to-2030-world-cup-with-an-option-on-the-2034-edition-12741624) for US rights to the 2030 World Cup, with a 2034 option, is November 19, with a winner named by year-end; Netflix already holds the tournament's rights in Spain and Andorra and the Women's World Cup in the US and Canada for 2027 and 2031 [7]. The bid is the live test of whether sports spending hedges the engagement slide or spends into it. If app opens recover and January's 2027 guidance holds double-digit growth with wider margins, the buy camp's multiple math works from here. If qualified play days keep falling, the estimates behind that 17x fall with them, and the $63 buyer's 43% upside reprices with them. The deep dive below has the full record. ## Takeaway Netflix sits at a two-year low with $12 billion of cash expected against falling app opens; the trade now turns on FIFA World Cup rights bids due November 19 and January's 2027 guidance. ## Sources 1. [Yahoo Finance / StockTwits, Why Did NFLX, MBLY, APP Stocks Tumble To 52-Week Lows?, 29 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-did-nflx-mbly-app-032345563.html) 2. [The Economic Times (Bloomberg, Lucas Shaw), Netflix users are watching less, not opening the app as often, 25 October 2026](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/media/entertainment/media/netflix-users-are-watching-less-not-opening-the-app-as-often/articleshow/135194861.cms) 3. [Reddit r/movies, Netflix Users Are Watching Less, Not Opening the App as Often, 28 October 2026](https://old.reddit.com/r/movies/comments/1xfaole/netflix_users_are_watching_less_not_opening_the/) 4. [Reddit r/entertainment, Netflix Users Are Watching Less, Not Opening the App as Often, 29 October 2026](https://old.reddit.com/r/entertainment/comments/1xf63hp/netflix_users_are_watching_less_not_opening_the/) 5. [Yahoo Finance (TIKR), Netflix Sinks 3% as Bloomberg Report Shows Users Watching Less, 26 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/netflix-sinks-3-bloomberg-report-164705770.html) 6. [Yahoo Finance (TIKR), Netflix Is 'a Screaming Buy,' Says Early Uber Investor as the Sell-Off Refuses to Let Up, 29 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/netflix-screaming-buy-says-early-154510578.html) 7. [BestMediaInfo, FIFA invites bids for US media rights to 2030 World Cup, with an option on the 2034 edition, 23 October 2026](https://bestmediainfo.com/mediainfo/mediainfo-marketing/fifa-invites-bids-for-us-media-rights-to-2030-world-cup-with-an-option-on-the-2034-edition-12741624) 8. [Primetimer, Netflix growth slumps as US user engagement declines, 27 October 2026](https://www.primetimer.com/news/netflix-growth-slumps-as-us-user-engagement-declines) 9. [The Inference, Netflix cut 1,000 jobs, then took $300 million off its 2026 ad forecast; new markets open March 2027, 20 October 2026](/article/netflix-cut-1-000-jobs-then-took-300-million-off-its-2026-ad-forecast-new-markets-open-march-2027) 10. [Netflix, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 30 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001065280) --- Netflix at a two-year low of $61.39: $12 billion of cash against fewer app opens — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/netflix-at-a-two-year-low-of-61-39-12-billion-of-cash-against-fewer-app-opens