---
title: "Nine banks lifted Freeport-McMoRan targets to as high as $92 on a copper squeeze Freeport says ends in 2027"
description: "Nine banks lifted Freeport-McMoRan targets between September 29 and October 9, taking the top mark to $92. The October 2 update behind the raises schedules Grasberg back near full capacity only by the end of 2027, with third-quarter unit costs 5% above plan and 60,000 ounces of gold deferred."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Money"
published: 2026-10-10T21:19:38.902Z
modified: 2026-10-10T21:19:38.902Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/nine-banks-lifted-freeport-mcmoran-targets-to-as-high-as-92-on-a-copper-squeeze-freeport-says-ends-in-2027
language: en
keywords: "Copper, Freeport McMoRan, Analyst Ratings, Commodities, Mining, Indonesia"
---

# Nine banks lifted Freeport-McMoRan targets to as high as $92 on a copper squeeze Freeport says ends in 2027

> Nine banks lifted Freeport-McMoRan targets between September 29 and October 9, taking the top mark to $92. The October 2 update behind the raises schedules Grasberg back near full capacity only by the end of 2027, with third-quarter unit costs 5% above plan and 60,000 ounces of gold deferred.

## The mine behind the copper record is two-thirds broken

Grasberg is milling about 140,000 metric tons of ore a day, [Freeport](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/freeport-mcmoran) said on October 2, roughly 67% of its normalized rate before [the September 2025 mud rush](https://www.mining.com/web/freeport-says-indonesias-grasberg-mine-ramp-up-on-track-after-mudslide-disruption/) [1]. The rush killed seven workers and shut, for nearly a month, the world's second-largest copper mine and its largest gold mine, a district that supplies more than a quarter of Freeport's output [2]. Even so, analysts say the recent run to record prices owes more to tariff-driven stockpiling and thin growth in mine supply than to any single outage [3][4].

## Nine raises, eight in five sessions

Nine banks raised their Freeport targets between September 29 and October 9, and eight of them moved in the five sessions after [the October 2 update](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261001501961/en/) [5]. JPMorgan went to $92 from $77, Jefferies to $90 from $82, UBS to $88 from $77, Wells Fargo to $87 from $70 [5]. The stock closed October 9 at $73.69, up 45% for the year, against a 23-analyst consensus of $77.55; the month's targets span $47 to $92 [5][6].

*Chart: **Every new target since September 29 sits above Freeport's $73.69 close** Bar chart of nine banks' new Freeport-McMoRan price targets from September 29 to October 9, 2026, all above the $73.69 closing price*

*New analyst price targets in dollars per share, set September 29 to October 9, 2026; eight of the nine came after Freeport's October 2 update. Consensus across 23 analysts: $77.55. Source: MT Newswires via MarketScreener. [5]*

## The update the banks marked up is not clean

Copper is on plan: about 830 million pounds produced, 750 million pounds to be sold, and a realized price above $6.50 a pound [1]. Gold is not: about 230,000 ounces produced, only 100,000 selling, 60,000 deferred into the fourth quarter, and unit net cash costs about 5% above July's $2.00 a pound, which Freeport pins on the missing gold credits rather than operating inflation [1]. The trend behind that figure is less innocent: [second-quarter unit costs ran $1.97 a pound, up 74% year over year](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/will-fcx-s-margins-hold-up-as-copper-production-costs-rise/ar-AA2cg8bR), and the full-year guide is about $1.90 against $1.65 in 2025 [7].

*Chart: **Unit net cash costs are up 27% since 2025, and the gold shortfall is why** Column chart of Freeport-McMoRan unit net cash costs per pound of copper: $1.65 in 2025, $1.97 in Q2 2026, a $2.00 Q3 plan, an implied $2.10 Q3 actual and a $1.90 full-year guide*

*Unit net cash costs per pound of copper. Q3 2026 actual is Freeport's stated 'about 5% above' its July $2.00 plan; the full-year 2026 figure is company guidance. Sources: Freeport operational update, October 2, 2026; Zacks Investment Research. [1][7]*

*Chart: **Grasberg mill rates do not reach pre-incident norm again until end-2027** Column chart of Grasberg mill throughput as a share of pre-incident rates: 100% before the incident, 67% actual in Q3 2026, and company targets of 80% by mid-2027 and near-full rates by end-2027*

*Share of normalized pre-incident mill throughput at Grasberg; Q3 2026 averaged about 140,000 metric tons of ore per day. Mid-2027 and end-2027 are company targets. Sources: Freeport operational update, October 2, 2026; Reuters. [1][2]*

## The bull case is a deficit Freeport does not control

The upgrade case rests on scarcity elsewhere: Chile, the biggest producer, cut output 6.6% in the first half of 2026, new mines take about a decade to build, and tariff front-running is pulling metal into US inventories [3][4]. [Copper settled at a record $6.89 a pound on September 9](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/ai-boom-tariff-uncertainty-pushing-142541572.html), up 40% in a year [4]. Forward earnings carry the story, 19.9 times against an industry average of 22.2, with 2026 consensus up about 59% [7]. And the growth engine is producing now: leaching yields roughly 200 million pounds a year, targeted at 300 million by year-end [8][9].

## The record that argues the other way

The stock trades at 36.4 times trailing earnings against a five-year median of 29.0, one valuation model puts fair value at $49.75, and insiders sold $46 million of stock over 12 months without buying a share [10]. This ramp has slipped before: April's guidance cut took 2026 copper sales to 3.1 billion from 3.4 billion pounds and the second-half Grasberg outlook to 65% from 85% of capacity, and [Morgan Stanley dropped the stock to Equal Weight at $66](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/24/morgan-stanley-downgrades-freeport-mcmoran-is-the-copper-story-breaking-down-at-grasberg/) [11].

## Two dates can break the marks

Earnings land October 27, the first print against the raised bar, and the Bagdad doubling decision closes by year-end [1]. Then Freeport's own clock: 80% of capacity in mid-2027, near full capacity by December 2027 [1]. The banks are pricing a shortage whose expiry date is printed in the press release they upgraded on.

## Takeaway

Nine banks have marked Freeport-McMoRan up to as high as $92 on a copper squeeze, yet the October 2 update they rewarded shows Grasberg at 67% of normal rates with costs 5% above plan, and Freeport's own clock says near-full capacity only by December 2027.

## Sources

1. [Business Wire, Freeport Provides Third-Quarter 2026 Operational Update, October 2, 2026](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261001501961/en/)
2. [Reuters via MINING.com, Freeport says Indonesia's Grasberg mine ramp-up on track after mudslide disruption, October 2, 2026](https://www.mining.com/web/freeport-says-indonesias-grasberg-mine-ramp-up-on-track-after-mudslide-disruption/)
3. [CNBC, Copper jumps to its highest level ever. What the metal is telling us, August 6, 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/06/copper-jumps-to-its-highest-level-ever-what-the-metal-is-telling-us-.html)
4. [CNN via Yahoo Finance, The AI boom and tariff uncertainty are pushing copper prices to record highs, September 10, 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/ai-boom-tariff-uncertainty-pushing-142541572.html)
5. [MT Newswires via MarketScreener, JPMorgan Adjusts Price Target on Freeport-McMoRan to $92 From $77, October 7, 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/jpmorgan-adjusts-price-target-on-freeport-mcmoran-to-92-from-77-ce785dded88cfe20)
6. [TradingKey, Freeport-McMoRan Inc Stock (FCX) Moved Up by 3.15% on Oct 9: A Full Analysis, October 9, 2026](https://www.tradingkey.com/news/market-movers/262208847-market-movers-fcx-20261009)
7. [Zacks Investment Research via MSN, Will FCX's margins hold up as copper production costs rise?, September 15, 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/will-fcx-s-margins-hold-up-as-copper-production-costs-rise/ar-AA2cg8bR)
8. [MarketBeat via Yahoo Finance, Freeport-McMoRan Eyes Grasberg Ramp-Up, U.S. Copper Growth From Leaching, September 10, 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/freeport-mcmoran-eyes-grasberg-ramp-020203806.html)
9. [MarketBeat via Yahoo Finance, Freeport-McMoRan Eyes Leach Breakthrough, Bagdad Growth and Grasberg Recovery, September 16, 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/freeport-mcmoran-eyes-leach-breakthrough-210203015.html)
10. [GuruFocus, A Look at Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) After 3.6% Gain, GF Value $49.75 vs Price $73.69, October 9, 2026](https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9117927/a-look-at-freeportmcmoran-inc-fcx-after-36-gain-gf-value-4975-vs-price-7369)
11. [24/7 Wall St., Morgan Stanley Downgrades Freeport-McMoRan: Is the Copper Story Breaking Down at Grasberg?, April 24, 2026](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/24/morgan-stanley-downgrades-freeport-mcmoran-is-the-copper-story-breaking-down-at-grasberg/)


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Nine banks lifted Freeport-McMoRan targets to as high as $92 on a copper squeeze Freeport says ends in 2027 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/nine-banks-lifted-freeport-mcmoran-targets-to-as-high-as-92-on-a-copper-squeeze-freeport-says-ends-in-2027