--- title: "Novo Nordisk counts 7 million US Wegovy pill prescriptions; Citi still cut its target to DKK 296" description: "The Wegovy pill has notched 7 million US prescriptions, the biggest drug launch in America by volume on the CEO's count. Citi just raised its estimate of the pill's peak sales to $13 billion and still cut Novo's target to DKK 296, because margins through 2030 are guided to stay flat." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Health" published: 2026-10-09T15:14:18.669Z modified: 2026-10-09T15:14:18.669Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/novo-nordisk-counts-7-million-us-wegovy-pill-prescriptions-citi-still-cut-its-target-to-dkk-296 language: en keywords: "Novo Nordisk, Wegovy, GLP-1, Drug Pricing, Analyst Ratings" --- # Novo Nordisk counts 7 million US Wegovy pill prescriptions; Citi still cut its target to DKK 296 > The Wegovy pill has notched 7 million US prescriptions, the biggest drug launch in America by volume on the CEO's count. Citi just raised its estimate of the pill's peak sales to $13 billion and still cut Novo's target to DKK 296, because margins through 2030 are guided to stay flat. The bull case is volume. [Novo Nordisk](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/novo-nordisk)'s chief executive counts 7 million US prescriptions for the Wegovy pill, "the best product launch in volume in U.S. across all different companies" [2]. Citi agrees on demand: it [raised its peak-sales estimate to $13 billion from $10 billion](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/citi-cuts-novo-nordisk-price-105254428.html), counts about one million UK packs since July, and expects the pill in at least 20 countries by the end of 2027 [1]. The bank still cut its target to DKK 296 from DKK 310, kept neutral, and dropped the multiple to 14 times from 15 [1]. ![A bottle of Rybelsus, Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide tablets](https://storage.googleapis.com/theinference-public/img/e58cee00aef278ab.jpg) *Oral semaglutide: Novo sells the same molecule in the US as Rybelsus, and as the Wegovy pill for weight loss. (Grendelkhan via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0)* ## Novo wrote the flat-margin guide itself [At its Capital Markets Day on September 21](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/highlights-presented-novo-capital-markets-080000690.html), Novo's ambition was to "maintain a broadly stable operating margin" to 2030, with revenue growth only in line with industry peers [4]. Citi answered by cutting its 2028-30 operating profit forecasts 2-4% and its 2027-30 earnings growth view to 9% from 12% [1]. The chief executive's defense is that volume proves the economics: "We would not be able to... show a positive growth on the top and the bottom if items like the pill were not doing well and were not profitable" [3]. [Prescriptions grew "well into double-digit numbers" in the second quarter](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/novo-nordisk-stock-guidance-earnings-wegovy-ozempic-eli-lilly.html) and 80% of pill takers were new to GLP-1s; the pill still slightly missed forecasts [3]. The revenue line frames the argument: growth ran from +41.1% in Q3 2023 to -0.8% in Q2 2026, with one +31% spike in Q1 2026 [9]. *Chart: **From +41% to zero: Novo's revenue growth in twelve quarters** Line chart of Novo Nordisk's year-on-year revenue growth across twelve quarters from Q3 2023 to Q2 2026, falling from 41.1% to -0.8%.* *Reported quarterly revenue, year-on-year change, calendar quarters, from Novo Nordisk's quarterly SEC filings. [9]* ## Sweden is selling German pills Novo never shipped Swedish pharmacies [began selling German-made Wegovy tablets this week](https://www.svenskfarmaci.se/2026/10/05/wegovytabletter-borjar-saljas-pa-svenska-apotek-den-har-veckan/), before any Swedish launch, at roughly 2,000 to 2,600 kronor for a month's supply [5]. The route is parallel distribution: packs legally made in one EU country, here Germany, imported into another through channels other than the maker's authorized distributors [5]. Novo Sweden's press chief concedes the company does not control the "volumes, dosing and pricing" of its own imported product [5]. Europe's launches run country by country at local prices, and the winners of that ladder are the parallel importers and German wholesalers who capture the gap; the payer is Novo's realized price. Novo cut the Swedish price of injectable Wegovy by 20% on October 1 [5]; France launches in early November with no reimbursement [6]. ## American demand routes around the price TRM Labs [traced crypto payments to vendors listing both "research peptides" and fentanyl precursors](https://www.inkl.com/news/americans-paying-for-cheap-online-semaglutide-may-be-sending-money-to-vendors-that-also-list-fentanyl-precursors) rising from $28.2 million in 2023 to $37.3 million in 2025, about 57% of identifiable payments from the US [7]. Nobody has yet counted what that bypass costs Novo in realized price. ## A volume beat that cannot move margins Citi sees third-quarter pill revenue of DKK 5.3 billion against DKK 4.5 billion consensus, on total sales of DKK 73.5 billion, down about 4% at constant currencies [1]. Operating profit rises 18% only against a quarter carrying DKK 9 billion of restructuring charges; strip them out and it falls 15% [1]. Novo has [spent DKK 10.2 billion since February buying its own shares](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000117184326006440/f6k_100526.htm) at an average DKK 279.95 [8], just under Citi's new DKK 296 [1]: on those numbers Novo itself is the largest committed buyer of its own volume story. Seven million prescriptions proved the demand. Not one of them proved Novo can still set a price. ## Takeaway The Wegovy pill's 7 million US prescriptions prove demand, but Novo's own flat-margin guide to 2030, parallel imports eating its European price and a buyback below Citi's new DKK 296 target all point the same way: the volume story is real, the pricing power is not. ## Sources 1. [Yahoo Finance, 'Citi Cuts Novo Nordisk Price Target to DKK 296 on Limited Margin Growth Outlook', 9 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/citi-cuts-novo-nordisk-price-105254428.html) 2. [The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) on X, Novo Nordisk CEO on 7 million Wegovy pill prescriptions, 4 October 2026](https://x.com/TheTranscript_/status/2106474369291821315) 3. [CNBC, 'Novo Nordisk CEO defends economics of Wegovy pill as lower prices weigh on sales; shares fall 5%', 5 August 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/novo-nordisk-stock-guidance-earnings-wegovy-ozempic-eli-lilly.html) 4. [Novo Nordisk press release via Yahoo Finance, 'Highlights to be presented at Novo's Capital Markets Day 2026', 21 September 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/highlights-presented-novo-capital-markets-080000690.html) 5. [Svensk Farmaci, 'Wegovytabletter börjar säljas på svenska apotek den här veckan', 5 October 2026](https://www.svenskfarmaci.se/2026/10/05/wegovytabletter-borjar-saljas-pa-svenska-apotek-den-har-veckan/) 6. [RMC via MSN, 'Traitement anti-obésité: le Wegovy arrive en comprimé en France dès novembre', 7 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/fr-fr/sante/perte-de-poids/traitement-anti-ob%C3%A9sit%C3%A9-le-wegovy-arrive-en-comprim%C3%A9-en-france-d%C3%A8s-novembre-ce-qui-change-par-rapport-%C3%A0-la-piq%C3%BBre/ar-AA2dLdjo) 7. [Medical Daily via inkl, 'Americans Paying for Cheap Online Semaglutide May Be Sending Money to Vendors That Also List Fentanyl Precursors', 8 October 2026](https://www.inkl.com/news/americans-paying-for-cheap-online-semaglutide-may-be-sending-money-to-vendors-that-also-list-fentanyl-precursors) 8. [Novo Nordisk A/S, Form 6-K, share repurchase programme, filed 5 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000117184326006440/f6k_100526.htm) 9. [Novo Nordisk quarterly figures from its SEC filings, series retrieved 9 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000353278) --- Novo Nordisk counts 7 million US Wegovy pill prescriptions; Citi still cut its target to DKK 296 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/novo-nordisk-counts-7-million-us-wegovy-pill-prescriptions-citi-still-cut-its-target-to-dkk-296