--- title: "Novo Nordisk's new 25% CagriSema figure counts only women who never quit; Zepbound's 25.5% stands" description: "Novo Nordisk republished CagriSema as a women's-health win on October 20: 25% average weight loss in a post-hoc subgroup, computed as if no patient quit treatment. The FDA decides this quarter on the file that lost the head-to-head to Zepbound." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Health" published: 2026-10-21T15:25:50.619Z modified: 2026-10-21T15:25:50.619Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/novo-nordisk-s-new-25-cagrisema-figure-counts-only-women-who-never-quit-zepbound-s-25-5-stands language: en keywords: "Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Obesity, Pharmaceuticals, Clinical Trials" --- # Novo Nordisk's new 25% CagriSema figure counts only women who never quit; Zepbound's 25.5% stands > Novo Nordisk republished CagriSema as a women's-health win on October 20: 25% average weight loss in a post-hoc subgroup, computed as if no patient quit treatment. The FDA decides this quarter on the file that lost the head-to-head to Zepbound. On October 20 [Novo Nordisk](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/novo-nordisk) presented [two post-hoc analyzes of REDEFINE 1](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/novos-cagrisema-was-associated-with-25-weight-loss-on-average-for-women-in-a-post-hoc-analysis-of-redefine-1-presented-at-the-menopause-society-annual-meeting-302914051.html), the phase 3 behind its US filing for CagriSema, the once-weekly injection pairing semaglutide, Wegovy's active ingredient, with cagrilintide, a long-acting copy of the satiety hormone amylin [1]. Among the trial's women, average weight loss came to 25.0% at week 68 [1]. The qualifiers are the story: the figure assumes every patient stayed on treatment, and it counts only the women in a trial that was two-thirds female and whose full-population answer, on the same assumption, was 22.7% [1][2]. Novo's own release files the analyzes as hypothesis-generating [1]. Both of Novo's headline numbers assume nobody ever quits. The new one assumes you only count the women. ## It lands just under the number that beat CagriSema The problem being managed is REDEFINE 4, the only direct comparison with [Lilly](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/eli-lilly)'s Zepbound: [CagriSema 23.0%, Zepbound 25.5% at 84 weeks, non-inferiority failed](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/cagrisema-help-novo-nordisk-close-140000776.html) [2]. The women's re-analysis lands half a point under Zepbound's figure, a gap no head-to-head ever measured. CagriSema does beat Novo's own medicine, with semaglutide alone at 19.0% in the same women [1]; the gap it has not closed is Lilly's. [FactSet](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/factset) consensus still carries $11.84 billion of CagriSema obesity sales in 2028 [3]. *Chart: **Novo's new 25% for women sits just under the 25.5% Zepbound beat it with** Bar chart of average weight loss: CagriSema 22.7% across the full REDEFINE 1 trial, 19.0% for semaglutide alone in the same women, 25.0% in the women's post-hoc analysis, 23.0% for CagriSema in the REDEFINE 4 head-to-head, and 25.5% for Zepbound in that head-to-head.* *Average weight loss under the efficacy estimand, which assumes every patient stayed on treatment. Novo bars are from REDEFINE 1 at week 68 (the women's figure is a post-hoc subgroup); head-to-head bars are from REDEFINE 4 at week 84. Sources: Novo Nordisk release; Zacks via Yahoo Finance. [1][2]* ## Lilly's number is growing while Novo's is recomputed Lilly's counter, presented three weeks ago, adds its own amylin copy, eloralintide, to tirzepatide, Zepbound's ingredient: [23.3% average weight loss at 48 weeks in phase 2, against 14.8% for tirzepatide alone](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/lilly-raises-weight-loss-bar-its-amylin-zepbound-combo), in the harder-to-treat population that also has Type 2 diabetes [4][5]. [Citi](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/citigroup) reads that as comparable to tirzepatide's effect in people without diabetes, with phase 3 starting before year end [5]. The catch is tolerability: up to 27% of patients on the combination discontinued [5]. Lilly's first-half revenue grew by half; Novo's adjusted sales grew 2% [2]. ## The quarter belongs to the pill, and the cushion is nearly spent San Diego moves nothing before the FDA rules. [Novo reports on November 4](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/unternehmensnachrichten/novo-nordisk-nears-q3-report-with-buyback-above-10-5-billion-dkk-eu-label-win-in-hand/70362461) with consensus earnings down about a fifth year on year, after estimates were cut by a tenth within a month [6][7]. BMO warns that a gross-to-net adjustment worth more than DKK 2 billion will make the US Ozempic decline look steeper than the underlying trend [7]. The upside is [oral Wegovy](https://theinference.org/article/novo-s-pill-keeps-winning-switchers-while-the-payers-behind-its-volume-math-walk-out), where Citi expects DKK 5.3 billion against a DKK 4.5 billion consensus and has lifted its peak forecast for the tablet to $13 billion [8]. [The 15-billion-kroner buyback is almost three-quarters spent](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000117184326006685/0001171843-26-006685-index.htm) [9], on a stock down 22% this year [7]. Novo built a better version of its own drug. It has not built a better drug than Lilly's, and a recomputed subset does not count as one. ## Takeaway The new 25% is a post-hoc subgroup of women computed as if no one quit treatment; it still sits under Zepbound's 25.5% from the head-to-head Novo lost, and the FDA rules on CagriSema this quarter. ## Sources 1. [Novo Nordisk press release via PR Newswire, "Novo's CagriSema was associated with 25% weight loss on average for women in a post hoc analysis of REDEFINE 1 presented at The Menopause Society Annual Meeting", 20 October 2026](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/novos-cagrisema-was-associated-with-25-weight-loss-on-average-for-women-in-a-post-hoc-analysis-of-redefine-1-presented-at-the-menopause-society-annual-meeting-302914051.html) 2. [Zacks Investment Research via Yahoo Finance, "Can CagriSema Help Novo Nordisk Close the Gap With LLY in Obesity?", 31 August 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/cagrisema-help-novo-nordisk-close-140000776.html) 3. [CNBC, "Novo's CagriSema shows 25% weight loss in women", 20 October 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/20/novo-cagrisema-women-weight-loss-analysis.html) 4. [MadameNoire, "Eli Lilly's New Weight-Loss Drug Shows Eye-Popping Results", 21 October 2026](https://madamenoire.com/1693416/ozempic-eli-lillys-three-hormone-weight-loss-drug/) 5. [Fierce Biotech, "Lilly raises diabetes weight-loss bar with amylin-Zepbound combo", 30 September 2026](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/lilly-raises-weight-loss-bar-its-amylin-zepbound-combo) 6. [Zacks via Foreign Policy Journal, "Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO) Holds Zacks Rank #3 As Earnings Estimates Slide And Valuation Looks Attractive", 19 October 2026](https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2026/10/19/novo-nordisk-a-s-nyse-nvo-holds-zacks-rank-3-as-earnings-estimates-slide-and-valuation-looks-attractive/) 7. [ad-hoc-news.de, "Novo Nordisk Nears Q3 Report With Buyback Above 10.5 Billion DKK, EU Label Win in Hand", 20 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/unternehmensnachrichten/novo-nordisk-nears-q3-report-with-buyback-above-10-5-billion-dkk-eu-label-win-in-hand/70362461) 8. [GMT8 Press, "Citi cuts Novo Nordisk price target to DKK 296, says long-term margin lacks room for growth", 20 October 2026](https://www.gmt8press.com/flash/detail/1548300) 9. [US SEC Form 6-K, Novo Nordisk A/S, share repurchase programme announcement, 19 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000117184326006685/0001171843-26-006685-index.htm) --- Novo Nordisk's new 25% CagriSema figure counts only women who never quit; Zepbound's 25.5% stands — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/novo-nordisk-s-new-25-cagrisema-figure-counts-only-women-who-never-quit-zepbound-s-25-5-stands