--- title: "October CPI locks in a December hike that lands three weeks after Anthropic's $90 billion IPO prices" description: "Markets price a 99% chance of a Fed hike at the December meeting, and Goldman's own fixed-income head calls it the firm's base case, with more possible in 2027. The FOMC meets about three weeks after the Anthropic IPO prices, a $90.4 billion deal led by Goldman and Morgan Stanley." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Economy" published: 2026-11-10T18:16:49.817Z modified: 2026-11-10T18:16:49.817Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/october-cpi-locks-in-a-december-hike-that-lands-three-weeks-after-anthropic-s-90-billion-ipo-prices language: en keywords: "Federal Reserve, Inflation, IPO, Anthropic" --- # October CPI locks in a December hike that lands three weeks after Anthropic's $90 billion IPO prices > Markets price a 99% chance of a Fed hike at the December meeting, and Goldman's own fixed-income head calls it the firm's base case, with more possible in 2027. The FOMC meets about three weeks after the Anthropic IPO prices, a $90.4 billion deal led by Goldman and Morgan Stanley. [October inflation came in hotter than expected on November 10](https://www.businessinsider.com/cpi-report-inflation-october-data-consumer-price-index-2026-11), and markets now price a 99% chance the Federal Reserve hikes at its December meeting, the last of the year [1]. That decision lands about three weeks after [Anthropic](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/anthropic) [prices the biggest IPO ever sold on November 18](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-10/anthropic-targets-64-4-billion-ipo-nearing-spacex-s-record), a $90.4 billion deal led by [Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) and [Morgan Stanley](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley) [4]. The constraint on AI valuations this month is not a model benchmark. It is the discount rate. The print itself: consumer prices rose 0.4% over the month against 0.3% expected, core rose 0.3% against 0.2%, and there is no year-on-year figure at all because the 2025 shutdown broke the data series [1]. Gasoline is 37.4% above a year earlier on the war's energy shock [1]. *Chart: **October CPI beat forecasts on both the headline and the core** Column chart comparing actual and expected October CPI month-over-month changes for headline and core inflation* *Month-over-month change in consumer prices, October 2026, actual versus consensus expectation. Source: Business Insider. [1]* [S&P 500 futures fell after the release](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/s-p-500-futures-fall-sharply-after-october-inflation-data/ar-AA2h91Mk), with the Nasdaq 100 leading the drop, as traders read the number as higher rates for longer [5]. Goldman Sachs Asset Management's Lindsay Rosner called a December hike the firm's base case despite AI jitters, and left open more hikes in 2027 [1]. ## The two houses that lead the IPO cannot agree on what the hike does Morgan Stanley's own equity chief, Michael Wilson, [warned that a more restrictive Fed could prolong the stock correction into December](https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/morgan-stanley-sees-us-stock-correction-nearing-end-229219), while the firm's research desk still expects more AI debt issuance in 2027 and says financing remains available [2][3]. Both views can be true: debt still clears, but at a price that keeps rising. Note who sits on both sides of that trade, since Goldman and Morgan Stanley lead the Anthropic deal itself [4]. ## The IPO that has to price into this Anthropic is seeking as much as $90.4 billion, including a $26 billion private placement from its own chip suppliers, with pricing set for November 18 [4]. Its revenue run rate climbed from $65 billion at end-July to $81 billion at end-October [4]. *Chart: **Anthropic's run rate rose $16 billion in three months** Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate at end-July, end-September and end-October 2026* *Anthropic's run rate rose $16 billion in three months [4]* Anthropic's growth is the best evidence the AI demand is real. But the money chain runs: revenue funds compute commitments, compute commitments need cheap financing, and cheap financing needs a Fed that stops. Inflation just said it will not stop yet. Whoever buys ANT when it starts trading on November 19 is not only underwriting Claude [4]. They are underwriting the rate path Goldman's own fixed-income desk says includes 2027 [1]. ## Takeaway October inflation beat on headline and core and put a December Fed hike at 99% odds, three weeks after Anthropic's record $90.4 billion IPO prices; the same banks leading the deal say debt still clears, but at a rising price. ## Sources 1. [Business Insider, Today's CPI report shows inflation cooled over the month in October, 10 November 2026](https://www.businessinsider.com/cpi-report-inflation-october-data-consumer-price-index-2026-11) 2. [Hurriyet Daily News, Morgan Stanley sees US stock correction nearing end, 10 November 2026](https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/morgan-stanley-sees-us-stock-correction-nearing-end-229219) 3. [Economic Times, Is AI selloff a window to buy? Morgan Stanley sees multiple buying opportunities on Wall Street, 10 November 2026](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/is-ai-selloff-a-window-to-buy-morgan-stanley-sees-multiple-buying-opportunities-on-wall-street/articleshow/135701512.cms?from=mdr) 4. [Bloomberg, Anthropic Targets $1.4 Trillion Valuation in IPO, 10 November 2026](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-10/anthropic-targets-64-4-billion-ipo-nearing-spacex-s-record) 5. [Reuters (via MSN), S&P 500 futures fall sharply after October inflation data, 10 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/s-p-500-futures-fall-sharply-after-october-inflation-data/ar-AA2h91Mk) --- October CPI locks in a December hike that lands three weeks after Anthropic's $90 billion IPO prices — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/october-cpi-locks-in-a-december-hike-that-lands-three-weeks-after-anthropic-s-90-billion-ipo-prices