--- title: "Ondas Holdings booked $270 million of orders but needs a $244 million fourth quarter it has never had" description: "Ondas has booked more than $270 million of orders since June 30 on top of a backlog near $613 million, and the stock has fallen anyway. Its own full-year guide implies a fourth quarter of roughly $244 million to $269 million, about three times the best quarter the company has reported." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Money" published: 2026-10-10T13:07:38.295Z modified: 2026-10-10T13:07:38.295Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/ondas-holdings-booked-270-million-of-orders-but-needs-a-244-million-fourth-quarter-it-has-never-had language: en keywords: "Defense, Drones, Stocks, Earnings" --- # Ondas Holdings booked $270 million of orders but needs a $244 million fourth quarter it has never had > Ondas has booked more than $270 million of orders since June 30 on top of a backlog near $613 million, and the stock has fallen anyway. Its own full-year guide implies a fourth quarter of roughly $244 million to $269 million, about three times the best quarter the company has reported. Eric Brock's autonomous-defense roll-up said on October 7 that it booked more than $165 million of orders from late August through October 1, on top of $105 million disclosed in August: over $270 million since June 30, spanning counter-drone, surveillance and the IonStrike "Shahed Killer" strike drone [1][2]. [The update ran as a paid press release](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/ondas-secures-over-165-million-123000720.html) on ACCESS Newswire [1]. [Backlog stood near $613 million at the end of June](https://www.newswire.com/view/content/ondas-posts-record-q2-2026-revenue-of-83-8-million-on-strong-bookings-and), or $757 million with DZYNE and Cyberhawk counted in [2][3]. The tape was unmoved. The shares fell as much as 4.7% on the news [2], slid 5% the next day while Kratos edged higher [4], and closed the week at $6.73, down about 30% for the year while the telecom ETF holding the stock gained about 38% [2][4][5]. *Chart: **Ondas' backlog grew from $68 million to as much as $757 million in six months** Column chart of Ondas backlog: $68M at end-2025, $457M pro forma at Q1 2026, $613M reported and $757M pro forma at mid-2026.* *Backlog in millions of dollars as disclosed by Ondas. Pro forma figures include DZYNE and Cyberhawk, which closed in Q3 2026; orders booked since June 30 come on top of these balances. [3][2]* ## The guide implies a quarter Ondas has never delivered The revenue base is far smaller than the order book. First-half revenue was $133.9 million, the sum of the two reported quarters, $50.1 million in the first and a record $83.8 million in the second, which beat a roughly $68 million consensus [3][6]. In August the company [lifted its full-year target to $525 to $550 million and guided the third quarter to $140 to $155 million](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ondas-q2-2026-earnings-record-123040859.html) [2][11]. Hold the third quarter at its midpoint and the year leaves a fourth quarter of roughly $244 million to $269 million, near triple the record just set [3]. Brock framed the job on the August call as "execution, converting backlog, delivering on major programs" [4]. Platform-level adjusted EBITDA is promised to reach breakeven in the fourth quarter, after a $61.5 million first-half adjusted-EBITDA loss, $10.9 million in the first quarter plus $50.6 million in the second [3][6]. ## A $271.6 million profit built on warrant marks GAAP net income was positive, $271.6 million in the half, because non-cash gains on warrants issued in the October 2025 and January 2026 raises ran through it [3]. Strip the warrant marks and the operating loss was $205.6 million [3]. *Chart: **To hit its own guide, Ondas needs a Q4 near triple its record quarter** Column chart of Ondas quarterly revenue from $6.3M in Q2 2025 to a record $83.8M in Q2 2026, then a guided $147.5M in Q3 and an implied $256.1M in Q4.* *Quarterly revenue in millions of dollars. The Q3 bar is company guidance; the Q4 bar is what the full-year target leaves after reported first-half revenue and the Q3 guide midpoint, with the range spanning the target's low and high. [3][2]* ## Half the GATE price was stock, and the earn-out is bigger than the cash GATE Technologies of Israel and Bron of Poland [closed on September 14 for $205 million](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/ondas-acquires-gate-technologies-bron-132500288.html): $105 million in cash, $100 million in [Ondas](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/ondas-holdings) stock, and up to $185 million of earn-out tied to targets through 2028, payable in cash or stock at Ondas' election [7]. GATE is penciled in for $65 million of revenue this year, $180 million by 2028 and $130 million-plus of adjusted EBITDA over three years [7]. Three more companies followed within a week, about $56 million plus up to $32 million of earn-outs [8], after July's $875.8 million DZYNE purchase [9]. The warrants behind those first-half gains sit on the June balance sheet as a $1.04 billion liability, and the share count rose 39% in the first half and almost 50% by August [3][9]. The first proof point arrived on October 5: [a $56 million safe-and-arm order for a European munition program](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/onds-stock-jumps-56m-esad-135453948.html), the first since GATE closed [10]. *Chart: **The GATE earn-out is bigger than the cash Ondas paid up front** Bar chart of GATE and Bron deal consideration: earn-out up to $185M, upfront cash $105M, upfront stock $100M.* *Consideration for GATE Technologies and Bron Technologies, closed September 14, 2026, in millions of dollars. The earn-out is contingent on financial targets through 2028 and payable in cash or Ondas stock at Ondas' election. [7]* ## The tape has already voted against the order story Citizens started coverage that same day, at Outperform with a $14 target against a $7 stock, calling Ondas a "dynamic player" [10]. Nine Buy ratings and a consensus target near $19.81 stood in August, against mid-July short interest of 43.9% of the float [9]. Bulls hold a backlog that grew ninefold in six months and $1.4 billion of June cash, less the $325 million since spent on DZYNE and Cyberhawk [3]. Skeptics answer that scaling production is where small defense suppliers most often disappoint, all the more when the deals were paid in stock [4]. The third-quarter report is the verdict: $140 to $155 million of revenue, with volume shipments under the Army's $982 million loitering-munitions vehicle due to have begun [3][9]. Orders become revenue only on delivery, and Ondas has never delivered a quarter like the one its own guide demands. ## Takeaway Ondas has booked more than $270 million of orders since June 30, but its own guide leaves a fourth quarter of roughly $244 to $269 million, about triple its record; the stock, down about 30% this year, is waiting for deliveries. ## Sources 1. [Ondas Inc. press release via ACCESS Newswire on Yahoo Finance, 'Ondas Secures Over $165 Million in New Orders Since Last Order Update', 7 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/ondas-secures-over-165-million-123000720.html) 2. [StockTwits via Yahoo Finance (Harshita Tyagi), 'Ondas Adds Another $165M To Its Order Book, Putting Revenue Conversion In Focus', 7 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ondas-adds-another-165m-order-135321898.html) 3. [Ondas Inc. Q2 2026 earnings release via Newswire.com, 'Ondas Posts Record Q2 2026 Revenue of $83.8 Million on Strong Bookings and Backlog Growth; Raises Full-Year Outlook', 13 August 2026](https://www.newswire.com/view/content/ondas-posts-record-q2-2026-revenue-of-83-8-million-on-strong-bookings-and) 4. [24/7 Wall St. (David Moadel), 'Ondas Falls 5% as Defense Orders Pile Up Without Lifting Shares; AeroVironment Slips, Kratos Edges Higher', 8 October 2026](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/08/ondas-falls-5-as-defense-orders-pile-up-without-lifting-shares-aerovironment-slips-kratos-edges-higher/) 5. [Ondas Inc. Investor Relations, stock information as of the 9 October 2026 close](https://ir.ondas.com/) 6. [StockTwits via MSN (Prabhjote Gill), 'ONDS stock drops after earnings, CEO expects sustained momentum, raises 2026 revenue outlook to $550M', 13 August 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/onds-stock-drops-after-earnings-ceo-expects-sustained-momentum-raises-2026-revenue-outlook-to-550m/ar-AA2a1FZH) 7. [Ondas Inc. press release via ACCESS Newswire on Yahoo Finance, 'Ondas Acquires GATE Technologies and Bron Technologies, Expanding Precision-Strike Platform with Electronic Safe & Arm and Fuze Technology', 14 September 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/ondas-acquires-gate-technologies-bron-132500288.html) 8. [Benzinga via MSN (Dylan Berman), 'Ondas went on an acquisition spree this month, here is what it bought', 25 September 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/ondas-went-on-an-acquisition-spree-this-month-heres-what-it-bought/ar-AA2cX93G) 9. [Tech Times via MSN (Scott McCain), 'Ex-Mossad chief joins Ondas as army loitering drone awards top $240M mark', 10 August 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/technology/aviation/ex-mossad-chief-joins-ondas-as-army-loitering-drone-awards-top-240m-mark/ar-AA29MghG) 10. [StockTwits via Yahoo Finance (Prabhjote Gill), 'ONDS Stock Jumps On $56M ESAD Order, Citizens Sees Nearly 2X Upside, Calls Ondas A Dynamic Player', 5 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/onds-stock-jumps-56m-esad-135453948.html) 11. [Yahoo Finance (Cris Tolomia), 'Ondas Q2 2026 earnings: record revenue, raised full-year outlook', 13 August 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ondas-q2-2026-earnings-record-123040859.html) --- Ondas Holdings booked $270 million of orders but needs a $244 million fourth quarter it has never had — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/ondas-holdings-booked-270-million-of-orders-but-needs-a-244-million-fourth-quarter-it-has-never-had