---
title: "OpenEvidence raised $250 million at $15 billion; Pro Medicus fell 48% in a year on the same doctor screen"
description: "Private buyers marked clinician-distribution AI up in September; public sellers marked the workflow compounder down 48% despite A$1.3B of contracted minimums. PME now sits about 27% under its consensus target, and the AGM on November 25 is the next checkpoint on which price is right."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Health"
published: 2026-10-09T15:11:18.558Z
modified: 2026-10-09T15:11:18.558Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/openevidence-raised-250-million-at-15-billion-pro-medicus-fell-48-in-a-year-on-the-same-doctor-screen
language: en
keywords: "OpenEvidence, Pro Medicus, Medical AI, Valuation, Health"
---

# OpenEvidence raised $250 million at $15 billion; Pro Medicus fell 48% in a year on the same doctor screen

> Private buyers marked clinician-distribution AI up in September; public sellers marked the workflow compounder down 48% despite A$1.3B of contracted minimums. PME now sits about 27% under its consensus target, and the AGM on November 25 is the next checkpoint on which price is right.

Medical AI just priced the same scarce asset, the screen a clinician opens every day, twice in one quarter, in opposite directions. Private buyers added $250 million to [OpenEvidence](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/openevidence) at a $15 billion valuation, [confirmed on September 30](https://www.forbes.com/sites/saibala/2026/09/30/openevidence-confirms-it-has-raised-an-additional-250-million-at-a-15-billion-valuation/), up from $12 billion at its January Series D [1][2]. Public sellers cut [Pro Medicus](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/pro-medicus), whose Visage 7 imaging software US hospitals open daily, 48.03% over twelve months, before it bounced 4.50% to A$165.73 on October 9 [3][4]. Someone is wrong.

## What $15 billion buys

OpenEvidence's moat, per its own metrics, is data and distribution: more than 40% of practising US physicians use it daily, and US clinicians made 42 million queries in August alone [1]. What it does not own is the model. A Claude-based decision-support engine runs underneath, white-labeled free to doctors in roughly 100 low- and middle-income countries [under a September 22 deal](https://aichina.news/news/so-powerful-it-needs-risk-controls-anthropic-takes-medical-ai-to-100-e87vln/), and many users never see the [Anthropic](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/anthropic) brand at all [1]. That is the whole bet in one sentence: rents the intelligence, owns the doctor.

## What 48% took away

Pro Medicus reported [FY26 revenue of A$261.7 million, up 22.9%](https://kalkine.com.au/stock-analysis/healthcare/pro-medicus-asxpme-down-48-in-a-year-fy26-results-revisited), on a 74.9% underlying EBIT margin, ten new contracts worth at least A$407 million, six-of-six renewals repriced at higher fees per transaction, and about A$1.3 billion of minimum contracted revenue over five years [3][5]. The selling was not about results; it was [the fear AI commoditises imaging software](https://theinference.org/article/alibaba-gives-away-a-ct-reader-that-beat-23-of-26-radiologists), at a market cap of A$16.7 billion [4]. Divide that cap by FY26 revenue and the stock still carries roughly 64 times trailing revenue, a bet that the contract pipeline keeps compounding [3][4]. Even the growth quality argues against a commodity: constant-currency growth ran ahead of reported in every line, and renewals set higher fees in every case [3].

*Chart: **Every Pro Medicus growth line runs faster in constant currency than as reported** Column chart comparing Pro Medicus FY2026 reported versus constant currency growth rates for revenue, underlying EBIT and underlying NPAT.*

*Pro Medicus FY2026 year-on-year growth in percent, reported versus constant currency, per the company's FY26 results as reported by Kalkine (August 18, 2026, release). [3]*

## The model-versus-plumbing fight

The bear case [arrived this week by press release](https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/full?dockey=600-202610090211DGAP____ASPR_____corporate_2413022_en-1). Diagens Tech, a Hangzhou rival whose funded corporate newswire ran the same day PME bounced, argues imaging foundational models become the third high-value asset class in medical AI, after workflow software and patient data [6]. The counter comes from the data side: of about 950 AI devices the FDA had authorized by mid-2024, roughly 723 were narrow, human-supervised radiology tools, and the hard part is that [the pixels sit locked in PACS archives, where "the model is the easy 10%"](https://www.databricks.com/blog/biomedical-imagings-real-bottleneck-data-not-model) [7]. If data stays locked, Visage owns the toll booth.

## Which moat settles it

If distribution-plus-data is the moat, the $15 billion mark is rational and Pro Medicus keeps derating. If contracted cash flows are the moat, the private mark is the mistake, and PME, about 27% under its consensus target of A$202.47 with an Outperform from 15 analysts, is the entry [5]. Late-stage medical-AI investors carry the write-down risk either way when the product is a wrapper on rented models [1]. The next checkpoint is Pro Medicus's [annual meeting on November 25, 2026](https://kalkinemedia.com/au/stocks/artificial-intelligence/can-pro-medicus-asxpme-turn-ai-fear-into-a-tailwind) [5]. Both prices cannot stay right.

## Takeaway

Private and public markets put opposite prices on the clinician screen in the same quarter: OpenEvidence up to $15 billion on distribution, Pro Medicus down 48% on AI commoditisation fear despite A$1.3 billion of contracted minimums. November 25's AGM is the next checkpoint on which price is right.

## Sources

1. [AICHINA.news / VCBeat, So powerful it needs risk controls: Anthropic takes medical AI to 100 countries through OpenEvidence, 4 October 2026](https://aichina.news/news/so-powerful-it-needs-risk-controls-anthropic-takes-medical-ai-to-100-e87vln/)
2. [Forbes, OpenEvidence Confirms It Has Raised An Additional $250 Million At A $15 Billion Valuation, 30 September 2026](https://www.forbes.com/sites/saibala/2026/09/30/openevidence-confirms-it-has-raised-an-additional-250-million-at-a-15-billion-valuation/)
3. [Kalkine, Pro Medicus (ASX:PME) Down 48% in a Year: FY26 Results Revisited, 7 October 2026](https://kalkine.com.au/stock-analysis/healthcare/pro-medicus-asxpme-down-48-in-a-year-fy26-results-revisited)
4. [AD HOC NEWS, Pro Medicus stock reports 22.9 percent FY2026 revenue growth, brings focus to valuation and execution, 7 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/nebenwerte/pro-medicus-stock-reports-22-9-percent-fy2026-revenue-growth-brings-focus-to-valuation-and-execution/70250513)
5. [Kalkine Media, Can Pro Medicus (ASX:PME) Turn AI Fear Into a Tailwind?, 9 October 2026](https://kalkinemedia.com/au/stocks/artificial-intelligence/can-pro-medicus-asxpme-turn-ai-fear-into-a-tailwind)
6. [Hangzhou Diagens Biotechnology via EQS Newswire / FT Markets, Clinical Screens in Melbourne, Data in Chicago, Foundational Models in Hangzhou, 9 October 2026](https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/full?dockey=600-202610090211DGAP____ASPR_____corporate_2413022_en-1)
7. [Databricks blog, Biomedical Imaging's Real Bottleneck Is the Data, Not the Model, 9 October 2026](https://www.databricks.com/blog/biomedical-imagings-real-bottleneck-data-not-model)


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OpenEvidence raised $250 million at $15 billion; Pro Medicus fell 48% in a year on the same doctor screen — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/openevidence-raised-250-million-at-15-billion-pro-medicus-fell-48-in-a-year-on-the-same-doctor-screen