---
title: "Oracle can delay rent on its $165 billion Stargate campus, not exit it. Nov 23 decides"
description: "The lease on Project Jupiter is hell-or-high-water, the Wall Street Journal reports: Oracle can stall rent for up to three years, but it cannot walk away. New Mexico's November 23 air-permit deadline is the first dated event that could put that clause to work, with Blue Owl holding the campus and lenders holding debt already trading stressed."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Infrastructure"
published: 2026-10-09T01:07:11.487Z
modified: 2026-10-09T01:07:11.487Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/oracle-can-delay-rent-on-its-165-billion-stargate-campus-not-exit-it-nov-23-decides
language: en
keywords: "Oracle, OpenAI, Data Centers, Project Finance, New Mexico"
---

# Oracle can delay rent on its $165 billion Stargate campus, not exit it. Nov 23 decides

> The lease on Project Jupiter is hell-or-high-water, the Wall Street Journal reports: Oracle can stall rent for up to three years, but it cannot walk away. New Mexico's November 23 air-permit deadline is the first dated event that could put that clause to work, with Blue Owl holding the campus and lenders holding debt already trading stressed.

## The notice buys a pause, not an exit

On September 24 [Oracle](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/oracle) [sent a force majeure notice](https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/24/oracle-sends-force-majeure-notice-on-its-new-mexico-stargate-data-center/) to the Blue Owl unit developing Project Jupiter, the 2.45-gigawatt Stargate campus in Doña Ana County, New Mexico, built to run [OpenAI](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/openai) compute on Bloom Energy fuel cells from 2028 [1][2]. Oracle is not trying to leave as main tenant; the notice preserves its right to delay payments if the campus misses its date [1][2].

[The Wall Street Journal reports the lease is hell-or-high-water](https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/cracks-in-oracles-ai-data-center-build-out-appear-in-massive-new-mexico-project-effb51c2): no exit, a rent stall of as much as three years, then payments owed whether or not the site ever gets power [3][4]. Oracle cannot walk away from Jupiter; it can only choose, for three years, when to start paying for it.

## $18 billion lent against the schedule

The Journal's read of the contracts found "little wiggle room," and Oracle has already removed a key land-and-power partner from the project [3][4]. The campus was priced at $165 billion [3]. Roughly $18 billion of construction debt tied to it trades at stressed levels, and one lender has sold part of the loan below 90 cents on the dollar [2][3].

## The dates that decide it: November 23, then February 2027

Two inputs sit outside every contract in the stack. New Mexico's environment department has until November 23 to rule on the air permit for the campus's 2,462-megawatt fuel-cell microgrid [1][5]. The gas line meant to feed it has slipped to a February 2027 in-service target, and federal regulators have yet to authorize construction [5].

The permit now has its own proceeding. State staff modeling found no breach of air standards, the state supreme court cleared the way on September 17, and [on October 2 the department named retired federal judge James Browning hearing officer](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/retired-judge-to-lead-project-jupiter-permit-review/ar-AA2dFy0k), with Deputy Secretary John Rhoderick deciding [5][6]. No hearing was scheduled as of October 5 [6]. The developer's counsel put a number on waiting at a July hearing: $325 million a month beginning in November [5].

None of this is procedural noise. Residents and environmental groups want the permit denied, the campus is a political flashpoint weeks before the midterms, and Oracle is running a public outreach campaign in the state to win over critics [1][2].

## Why the risk repriced this week

Jupiter's end customer got smaller on paper. OpenAI told investors it reached roughly $50 billion in annualized revenue at end-September, against the $68 billion widely reported weeks earlier, and [Oracle fell nearly 6% on October 8](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/open-ai-revenue-nvidia-oracle-coreweave.html) [7]. It is the second leg of the repricing [The Inference traced earlier today](https://theinference.org/article/the-70-billion-openai-number-wall-street-lent-against-is-now-50-billion), when the OpenAI number Wall Street lent against went from $70 billion to $50 billion [7].

Oracle signed 4.5 gigawatts of leases before it had the power, permits or cash flow to back them [3]. Remaining performance obligations stand at $664 billion [8], and capex has outrun operating cash flow in seven of the last eight quarters [9].

*Chart: **Capex has outrun operating cash flow in seven of Oracle's last eight quarters** Line chart of Oracle's quarterly capital expenditure against operating cash flow from Q1 2024 to Q3 2026*

*Quarterly capital spending versus operating cash flow, US$ billions, fiscal quarters ended February 2024 through August 2026. Source: Oracle SEC filings. [9]*

## Everyone says nothing has changed

Oracle says Jupiter "remains on our planned schedule"; Blue Owl says the notice "does not change the financial commitments to this multi-year project"; STACK calls the partners "fully aligned" [1][2][5]. Oracle vice president Michael Egbert adds that such notices "do not, by themselves, establish a project delay or change delivery expectations" [5]. Co-CEO Clay Magouyrk said on September 10 the project would not touch fiscal 2027 guidance, and more than 3,600 construction workers are on site [2][5]. All true, and none of it answers the question: the lease already names who pays if the schedule breaks.

## What to watch

A permit by November 23 keeps the stall clause dormant and the rent clock running. A denial or a slip hands Oracle its pause and leaves the campus, and the debt behind it, sitting with Blue Owl and its lenders for as long as three years. November 23 decides when, not who.

## Takeaway

Oracle's force majeure notice is a timing option, not an exit: the hell-or-high-water lease on the $165 billion Project Jupiter means a New Mexico permit denial on November 23 would only decide when Oracle starts paying, and Blue Owl and its stressed lenders would carry the wait.

## Sources

1. [TechCrunch, Oracle sends force majeure notice on its New Mexico Stargate data center, 24 September 2026](https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/24/oracle-sends-force-majeure-notice-on-its-new-mexico-stargate-data-center/)
2. [CNBC, Oracle sends 'force majeure' notice about data center project, stock drops 3%, 24 September 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/oracle-data-center-force-majeure.html)
3. [Blockspace on Yahoo Finance, Cipher Digital's $5.2B Fluidstack Extension, Nscale's $35B IPO, Oracle's 'Hell or High Water' Project Jupiter, 25 September 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/cipher-digital-5-2b-fluidstack-200157335.html)
4. [The Wall Street Journal, Cracks in Oracle's AI Data-Center Build-Out Appear in Massive New Mexico Project, 25 September 2026](https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/cracks-in-oracles-ai-data-center-build-out-appear-in-massive-new-mexico-project-effb51c2)
5. [Engineering News-Record, Oracle Invokes Force Majeure as New Mexico Project Jupiter Power Work Faces Hurdles, 28 September 2026](https://www.enr.com/articles/63720-oracle-invokes-force-majeure-as-new-mexico-project-jupiter-power-work-faces-hurdles)
6. [Las Cruces Sun-News via MSN, Retired judge to lead Project Jupiter permit review, 6 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/retired-judge-to-lead-project-jupiter-permit-review/ar-AA2dFy0k)
7. [CNBC, Nvidia, Oracle and other AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue report, 8 October 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/open-ai-revenue-nvidia-oracle-coreweave.html)
8. [24/7 Wall St, Oracle Declares Force Majeure on $165 Billion Project Jupiter Data Center, 24 September 2026](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/24/oracle-declares-force-majeure-on-165-billion-project-jupiter-data-center/)
9. [Oracle, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 8 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001341439)


---

Oracle can delay rent on its $165 billion Stargate campus, not exit it. Nov 23 decides — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/oracle-can-delay-rent-on-its-165-billion-stargate-campus-not-exit-it-nov-23-decides