--- title: "PayPal's new business is consumer lending and its $606,000 lobbying list includes credit rules" description: "Three documents in 48 hours show PayPal trading a shrinking payments business for consumer lending, while its own lobbying disclosures show it working the rules that will price that lending. The credit cycle just got less friendly." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Economy" published: 2026-10-21T19:08:11.911Z modified: 2026-10-21T19:08:11.911Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/paypal-s-new-business-is-consumer-lending-and-its-606-000-lobbying-list-includes-credit-rules language: en keywords: "PayPal, Fintech, Consumer Credit, Lobbying, Payments" --- # PayPal's new business is consumer lending and its $606,000 lobbying list includes credit rules > Three documents in 48 hours show PayPal trading a shrinking payments business for consumer lending, while its own lobbying disclosures show it working the rules that will price that lending. The credit cycle just got less friendly. [PayPal](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/paypal) just admitted its old business is not growing, its new plan is lending, and its own lobbying filings show it is helping write the rules that will price that lending. That is the news from three documents in 48 hours, and it changes what shareholders own: less a payments network, more a consumer credit book that fails on the cycle. ## The CEO named the disease himself At Money 20/20 in Las Vegas on October 19, chief executive [Enrique Lores](https://theinference.org/markets/people/enrique-lores), seven months into the job, [said PayPal "isn't agile enough," that too many management layers slowed decisions](https://www.paymentsdive.com/news/paypal-isnt-agile-enough-ceo-says/833449/), and that Venmo and the Braintree processing business went without enough attention or investment [1]. The company has begun cutting jobs under his three-year plan; Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal reported in May an aim to cut the global workforce by about 20% [1]. *Chart: **PayPal's revenue growth cooled from 9% in early 2024 to 4.8% last quarter** Line chart of PayPal's year-over-year quarterly revenue growth from Q3 2023 to Q2 2026, falling from about 9 percent to under 5 percent.* *Year-over-year revenue growth by calendar quarter, percent, twelve quarters through Q2 2026, the latest reported. Source: PayPal, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 21 October 2026. [7]* The plan is to look more like [SoFi](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/sofi) and [Chime](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/chime): the most engaged of PayPal's more than 400 million app users [want credit, he said, buy now pay later and lending](https://thecudaily.com/money-20-20-coverage-how-paypal-sees-market-changing-and-what-it-has-planned/), while checkout stays but gets "complemented" [2]. The catch is that agentic commerce, the future Lores wants to occupy, brings no meaningful volume until 2028 [1]. Between now and then, the growth shareholders are funding is credit. ## The credit cycle just got less friendly A credit-led pivot is a bet on the consumer at a bad moment: hotter-than-expected core inflation on October 14 strengthened the case for more Federal Reserve tightening [6]. Wall Street priced it in before Lores spoke: [BofA](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/bank-of-america) Securities resumed coverage of PayPal at Underperform [5], and [Cleveland Research downgraded it to Underperform on weak trends in Braintree](https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/cleveland-research-downgrades-paypal-stock-rating-on-weak-trends-93CH-4957609) on October 19 [4]. The stock, down about 76% over five years, is where that doubt shows up [1]. ## The rules PayPal wants PayPal spent $606,000 on federal lobbying in the third quarter, and [its October 19 disclosure](https://themarijuanaherald.com/2026/10/paypal-reports-lobbying-congress-on-marijuana-banking-reform-in-third-quarter/) lists cannabis banking and the SAFE Banking Act, digital currencies, consumer credit, money transmission and consumer financial protections among its issues [3]. A company becoming a lender has an obvious interest in how lending gets regulated; the filing does not say how much of the money chased each item [3]. *Chart: **PayPal's federal lobbying ran near $600,000 a quarter while it built the consumer-lending case** Column chart of PayPal's quarterly federal lobbying spending: $570,000 in Q3 2025, $611,000 in Q2 2026, $606,000 in Q3 2026.* *Federal lobbying expenditures per quarter, US dollars, for the three quarters the cited report covers; PayPal's Q3 2026 disclosure was filed October 19, 2026. Source: The Marijuana Herald. [3]* As for a sale, Bloomberg reported that PayPal assessed a bid from [Stripe](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/stripe) and Advent International made in July, which the suitors abandoned in August; Lores did not discuss it on stage [1]. ## Credit losses, not credit volume Watch the next earnings print. [Branded checkout is laggard](https://theinference.org/article/paypal-lands-ticketmaster-processing-and-a-meta-checkout-slot-branded-wallet-grew-just-2), Braintree is losing on price, and the consumer-credit business that replaces them is the most cyclical thing PayPal could add. Until Lores shows credit losses, not just credit volume, holders own the cycle, not the turnaround. ## Takeaway Lores is trading a slowing payments network for consumer credit just as rate expectations harden, and PayPal's own lobbying shows it working the rules that will price that book. Until credit losses show up, holders own the cycle, not the turnaround. ## Sources 1. [Payments Dive, PayPal isn't agile enough, CEO says, 20 October 2026](https://www.paymentsdive.com/news/paypal-isnt-agile-enough-ceo-says/833449/) 2. [Credit Union Daily, Money 20/20 Coverage: How PayPal Sees Market Changing and What it Has Planned, 20 October 2026](https://thecudaily.com/money-20-20-coverage-how-paypal-sees-market-changing-and-what-it-has-planned/) 3. [The Marijuana Herald, PayPal Reports Lobbying Congress on Marijuana Banking Reform in Third Quarter, 20 October 2026](https://themarijuanaherald.com/2026/10/paypal-reports-lobbying-congress-on-marijuana-banking-reform-in-third-quarter/) 4. [Investing.com, Cleveland Research downgrades PayPal stock rating on weak trends, 20 October 2026](https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/cleveland-research-downgrades-paypal-stock-rating-on-weak-trends-93CH-4957609) 5. [Investing.com, BofA Securities resumes PayPal stock coverage with underperform rating, 20 October 2026](https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/bofa-securities-resumes-paypal-stock-coverage-with-underperform-rating-93CH-4951162) 6. [TIKR, Robinhood Stock Closed Down Nearly 9% the Day Wolfe Downgraded It. Here's Why Its Valuation Was Already Shrinking, 16 October 2026](https://www.tikr.com/blog/robinhood-stock-closed-down-nearly-9-the-day-wolfe-downgraded-it-heres-why-its-valuation-was-already-shrinking) 7. [PayPal, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 21 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001633917) --- PayPal's new business is consumer lending and its $606,000 lobbying list includes credit rules — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/paypal-s-new-business-is-consumer-lending-and-its-606-000-lobbying-list-includes-credit-rules