---
title: "PayPal's revenue miss gives Stripe and Advent an opening below the $60.50 the board refused"
description: "The first results since the board refused Stripe and Advent at $60.50 a share: revenue missed, profit beat, and the same quarter feeds the bears and the buyers."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Economy"
published: 2026-11-01T18:10:03.656Z
modified: 2026-11-01T18:10:03.656Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/paypal-s-revenue-miss-gives-stripe-and-advent-an-opening-below-the-60-50-the-board-refused
language: en
keywords: "PayPal, Earnings, Fintech, M&A, Stripe"
---

# PayPal's revenue miss gives Stripe and Advent an opening below the $60.50 the board refused

> The first results since the board refused Stripe and Advent at $60.50 a share: revenue missed, profit beat, and the same quarter feeds the bears and the buyers.

On October 27 [PayPal](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/paypal), the San Jose-based payments company, reported a third quarter that could not pick a side: [net revenue of $8.58 billion missed the $8.71 billion consensus](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/top-stocks/paypal-q3-earnings-top-estimates-revenue-merchant-volume-miss/ar-AA2g9Pik), adjusted earnings of $1.45 a share beat the $1.31 estimate, and full-year adjusted earnings guidance rose to about $5.60 from about $5.38 [1]. Revenue grew 2.0 percent year over year [2].

The print landed weeks after a summer of deal theatre. In July, [Stripe](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/stripe) and Advent International [offered $60.50 a share in cash, valuing PayPal at more than $53 billion](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/321005/20260720/paypal-board-rejects-53b-stripe-advent-offer-stablecoin-race-explains-why-next-move-matters.htm), a 28 percent premium over its July 14 close of $47.37 [3]. The board refused the price, talks resumed in mid-August, and [the consortium walked away on August 28](https://www.fool.com/coverage/stock-market-today/2026/08/28/stock-market-today-aug-28-paypal-falls-13-after-stripe-and-advent-abandon-usd50b-takeover/), knocking the shares down about 13 percent in a session [4].

## What the buyers actually bid for

Chief executive [Enrique Lores](https://theinference.org/markets/people/enrique-lores), who took over on March 1 after the board removed Alex Chriss in February [3], told investors PayPal is "collaborating with [Meta](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/meta) and other AI companies" to bring its trust proposition to [agentic commerce, shopping done by AI agents on a customer's behalf](https://theinference.org/article/paypal-s-checkout-is-inside-glance-an-ai-shopping-agent-on-60-million-devices-but-volume-waits-until-2028) [5]. The prize behind the price is scale no one can build quickly: 440 million active accounts [6].

The print cuts both ways. Revenue grew 2.0 percent, and branded checkout volume has grown only 1 to 2 percent for four straight quarters, while Pay Later rose 25 percent, Pay with Venmo 43 percent and Braintree 10 percent [5]. Yet non-GAAP operating margin still expanded to 18.8 percent, [adjusted free cash flow reached $2.0 billion](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/paypal-third-quarter-2026-news-release-ce785cdddb8efe25), and PayPal bought back $1.5 billion of stock in the quarter [6]. [GAAP net margin fell to 12.5 percent from 14.8 percent](https://www.trefis.com/stock/pypl/articles/621533/what-could-paypal-stock-be-worth-in-three-years/2026-10-30) [7].

*Chart: **Revenue growth slid to 2.0 percent in the third quarter, the slowest in five quarters** Line chart of PayPal's year-over-year quarterly revenue growth from Q4 2023 to Q3 2026, declining to 2.0 percent in Q3 2026.*

*Year-over-year growth of PayPal's quarterly net revenue, reported figures. Source: PayPal quarterly SEC filings [9]. [9]*

## The street refuses to pay for either story

The market has settled the argument at no premium. The stock closed October 30 at $57.01, [the mean target across 43 analysts is $57.10, and the consensus rating is HOLD](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/td-cowen-adjusts-price-target-on-paypal-to-60-from-59-ce785cd2da8df026) [8]; the bid sits about 6 percent above that close [3]. After the print, [Barclays](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/barclays) downgraded PayPal to Underweight with a $53 target on October 29, while UBS and TD Cowen hold $60 and BMO $59 [8].

*Chart: **Only the $60.50 bid stands above the street's $57.10 mean target** Bars ranking PayPal analyst price targets from $53 to $60 after the Q3 print, with the $60.50 bid highest and a reference line at the $57.01 last close.*

*Analyst price targets in US dollars after the Q3 print, ranked, against the last close of $57.01. Targets are analyst estimates; the $60.50 bar is the Stripe-Advent cash bid the board rejected in July. Sources: TechTimes [3], MarketScreener [8]. [3][8]*

## What decides it in February

Management [guides fourth-quarter adjusted earnings to about $1.43 against the $1.35 estimate already reported](https://stocktwits.com/LiveSquawk/message/667421347) [1], and gives 2027 guidance at the February print, with more investment planned and EPS growth targeted at a rate similar to 2026's [5][6]. The street's mean target already prices the $5.60 floor, so the reading turns on whether the 2027 outlook beats it, or whether Lores spends the margin he has built [5]. He [said on the call](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/paypal-pypl-q3-2026-earnings-155922732.html) the board remains "open to analyze objectively any option that is presented to us" [5].

The tell: whether a buyer, Stripe and Advent or anyone else, uses a 2 percent growth print to chip the price below the $60.50 the board already refused once [3][4].

## Takeaway

PayPal's 2 percent revenue growth is the slowest in five quarters while margins and buybacks carry the stock, and the street's $57.10 mean target sits below the $60.50 the board refused; the February 2027 outlook decides whether Lores spends the margin or a buyer returns.

## Sources

1. [Stocktwits, @LiveSquawk: PayPal Q3 2026 earnings figures versus estimates, 28 October 2026](https://stocktwits.com/LiveSquawk/message/667421347)
2. [Investor's Business Daily via MSN, PayPal earnings top Q3 estimates. Revenue, merchant volume miss., 27 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/top-stocks/paypal-q3-earnings-top-estimates-revenue-merchant-volume-miss/ar-AA2g9Pik)
3. [TechTimes, PayPal Board Rejects $53B Stripe-Advent Offer, 20 July 2026](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/321005/20260720/paypal-board-rejects-53b-stripe-advent-offer-stablecoin-race-explains-why-next-move-matters.htm)
4. [The Motley Fool, Stock Market Today, Aug. 28: PayPal Falls 13% After Stripe and Advent Abandon $50B Takeover, 28 August 2026](https://www.fool.com/coverage/stock-market-today/2026/08/28/stock-market-today-aug-28-paypal-falls-13-after-stripe-and-advent-abandon-usd50b-takeover/)
5. [The Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance, PayPal (PYPL) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript, 27 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/paypal-pypl-q3-2026-earnings-155922732.html)
6. [PayPal Holdings via MarketScreener, PayPal Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results, 27 October 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/paypal-third-quarter-2026-news-release-ce785cdddb8efe25)
7. [Trefis, What Could PayPal Stock Be Worth In Three Years?, 30 October 2026](https://www.trefis.com/stock/pypl/articles/621533/what-could-paypal-stock-be-worth-in-three-years/2026-10-30)
8. [MarketScreener, TD Cowen Adjusts Price Target on PayPal to $60 From $59, 28 October 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/td-cowen-adjusts-price-target-on-paypal-to-60-from-59-ce785cd2da8df026)
9. [PayPal, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 1 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001633917)


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PayPal's revenue miss gives Stripe and Advent an opening below the $60.50 the board refused — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/paypal-s-revenue-miss-gives-stripe-and-advent-an-opening-below-the-60-50-the-board-refused