--- title: "PG&E defers $2 billion of capex and rations new power hookups; its $73 billion plan is the test" description: "Two days after California's session ended without the wildfire-liability reform its plan assumed, PG&E launched a strategic review, deferred $2 billion of 2027 capex and pushed new large loads past an initial 1.6 gigawatts. The fiscal third-quarter call now tests whether the $73 billion plan through 2030 survived the review." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Power" published: 2026-10-11T19:12:50.459Z modified: 2026-10-11T19:12:50.459Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/pg-e-defers-2-billion-of-capex-and-rations-new-power-hookups-its-73-billion-plan-is-the-test language: en keywords: "PG&E, Capex, Wildfire Liability, Grid Infrastructure, Data Centers" --- # PG&E defers $2 billion of capex and rations new power hookups; its $73 billion plan is the test > Two days after California's session ended without the wildfire-liability reform its plan assumed, PG&E launched a strategic review, deferred $2 billion of 2027 capex and pushed new large loads past an initial 1.6 gigawatts. The fiscal third-quarter call now tests whether the $73 billion plan through 2030 survived the review. ## A weekend of handfuls, a bigger cutoff on paper PG&E warned about 12,200 customers across 17 counties that [public-safety shutoffs could run from October 9 through the weekend](https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/pge-possible-power-shutoffs-starting-oct-9/) [1]; by Saturday afternoon only handfuls in five counties were actually dark [2]. The bigger cutoff had already happened, on paper, on September 2. ## The plan assumed a law that never came On its July 23 call, PG&E sized a $73 billion plan through 2030, $16 billion of it resiliency and $23 billion capacity and new business, and said it assumed a constructive outcome from the legislature [4]. The session ended August 31 with no reform. After shares fell 20% on the amended Senate bill, the company [launched a strategic review, cut the 2027 plan to $11.4 billion from $13.4 billion](https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-09-02/pg-e-to-invest-11-4-billion-in-california-in-2027-as-part-of-strategic-review), deferred new large load beyond an initial 1.6 gigawatts, and dropped its five-year plan and growth rate beyond 2027 [3]. ## Capex is the engine, and it just stalled [Capital investment drove $0.09 of the $0.19 first-half core earnings gain](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/changed-pg-es-story-233500365.html), to $0.83 a share [4]. Debt stands at 231.2% of market value against 21% for the S&P 500, and the stock trades at 8.8 times earnings against 21.5 for the index [4]. *Chart: **PG&E's quarterly capex peaked at $3.36B in Q1 2026, and the 2027 plan is now $2B smaller** Line chart of PG&E quarterly capital expenditure from Q3 2023 to Q2 2026, rising from about $2.4 billion to a peak of $3.36 billion in Q1 2026* *Capital expenditure by calendar quarter, USD billions, from PG&E's SEC filings. [9]* ## Big loads get a floor, not a ceiling The rationing has a product. Flex Connect, two years old, gives large customers a firm floor and a dynamic ceiling: energized in months instead of years, throttled when the grid is tight. Five active and about 85 prospective customers, mostly EV charging, queue through it; data-center prospects reach 10 megawatts. Sites drew their full requested capacity in 90% of hours and were curtailed less than 1% of the time, and PG&E [wants regulators to make the pilot standard](https://gcn.com/pg-e-flexible-connections-let-chargers/22313/) [5]. The utility the AI boom cast as its power bottleneck is selling throttled megawatts, and calls it a bridge, not a substitute for wires [5]. ## Seven sells, one buy, one call left Management still builds: a [10-year plan filed October 1 to bury 5,000 miles of line](https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/west/2026/10/05/887779.htm), with $117 billion in expected benefits [7], plus 2027 guidance of $1.78 to $1.82 a share [3]. San Francisco's mayor and city attorney want state regulators to [investigate after 40 major unplanned outages this year](https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/san-francisco-pge-outage-investigation-22469238.php) [6]. PCG rose 3.9% on October 9 [8]. [Insiders sold seven times and bought once in six months](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/PG%26E+Rises+as+Investors+Reassess+Strategic+Review+and+Grid+Hardening+Plans), including 31,250 shares from Chief Executive Patti Poppe worth about $512,000 [8]. *Chart: **PG&E insiders sold $4.8 million of stock in six months and bought $91,500** Bar chart of PG&E insider stock transactions over six months: six sales led by Santos at $2.85M and Poppe at $0.51M, and one purchase by Larsen of $0.09M* *Open-market PCG insider transactions, six months to October 11, 2026; the single purchase drawn negative. [8]* The fiscal third-quarter call is the test PG&E's own July guidance set: reiterate the $73 billion plan with no new equity, or concede the review changed it [4]. Poppe has already picked her posture: "PG&E will not wait for the policy framework to change" [3]. ## Takeaway PG&E's $73 billion plan through 2030 now hangs on the fiscal third-quarter call: the 2027 capex plan is $2 billion smaller, new large loads are rationed past 1.6 gigawatts, and the review that did it followed a legislature that passed no wildfire-liability reform. ## Sources 1. [CBS News Sacramento, PG&E warns of possible power shutoffs across California starting Oct. 9, 10 October 2026](https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/pge-possible-power-shutoffs-starting-oct-9/) 2. [Sacramento Bee, PG&E power shutoffs limited so far in Northern CA. More could be coming, 10 October 2026](https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article317573468.html) 3. [Reuters via U.S. News & World Report, PG&E Launches Review, Defers $2 Billion in Spending After Wildfire Bill Setback, 2 September 2026](https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-09-02/pg-e-to-invest-11-4-billion-in-california-in-2027-as-part-of-strategic-review) 4. [Trefis via Yahoo Finance, What Changed In PG&E's Story?, 9 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/changed-pg-es-story-233500365.html) 5. [GCN, PG&E flexible connections let EV chargers skip grid upgrade queue, 11 October 2026](https://gcn.com/pg-e-flexible-connections-let-chargers/22313/) 6. [San Francisco Chronicle, San Francisco asks state to investigate PG&E after 40 outages, 8 October 2026](https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/san-francisco-pge-outage-investigation-22469238.php) 7. [Insurance Journal (Reuters), PG&E Files 10-Year Plan to Underground 5,000 Miles of Power Lines in California, 5 October 2026](https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/west/2026/10/05/887779.htm) 8. [Quiver Quantitative, PG&E Rises as Investors Reassess Strategic Review and Grid Hardening Plans, 9 October 2026](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/PG%26E+Rises+as+Investors+Reassess+Strategic+Review+and+Grid+Hardening+Plans) 9. [PG&E Corporation, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 11 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001004980) --- PG&E defers $2 billion of capex and rations new power hookups; its $73 billion plan is the test — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/pg-e-defers-2-billion-of-capex-and-rations-new-power-hookups-its-73-billion-plan-is-the-test