---
title: "PPL's 31.8 GW pipeline in advanced planning waits on a transmission tariff; plan update November 6"
description: "PPL Electric proposed 16 miles of line for a data center near Mount Carmel and picked its Allenwood route, while Governor Shapiro's PUC petition challenges exactly the layer of the grid those projects occupy. The annual business plan update on November 6 is the first hard number on the buildout, and the stock's premium to every utility peer has to be earned by it."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Power"
published: 2026-10-24T21:06:06.188Z
modified: 2026-10-24T21:06:06.188Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/ppl-s-31-8-gw-pipeline-in-advanced-planning-waits-on-a-transmission-tariff-plan-update-november-6
language: en
keywords: "PPL, Data Centers, Transmission, Pennsylvania, Utilities"
---

# PPL's 31.8 GW pipeline in advanced planning waits on a transmission tariff; plan update November 6

> PPL Electric proposed 16 miles of line for a data center near Mount Carmel and picked its Allenwood route, while Governor Shapiro's PUC petition challenges exactly the layer of the grid those projects occupy. The annual business plan update on November 6 is the first hard number on the buildout, and the stock's premium to every utility peer has to be earned by it.

Two Pennsylvania data-center transmission projects moved this week, and both raise the same question: who pays for the wires. On October 23, [PPL Electric Utilities](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/ppl) proposed 16 miles of new high-voltage line and a substation near Mount Carmel to serve a data-center customer it has not named, and [revealed the preferred 6.8-mile route](https://www.standard-journal.com/news/local/ppl-reveals-preferred-route-for-allenwood-transmission-project/article_80827302-c110-4388-b50b-d37be4e48cff.html) for a separate line to a campus the developer PNK Group wants at Allenwood [1][2].

The verdict on what this buildout is worth lands on November 6, when PPL pairs [third-quarter earnings](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ppl-corporation-to-conduct-webcast-on-third-quarter-2026-earnings-results-302918084.html) with its annual business plan update, the first scheduled read on its size [3].

## The customer-pays promise has a gap exactly where these projects sit

PPL's answer is a tariff. Its LP-6 rate class, which the company calls Pennsylvania's only PUC-approved large-load tariff, requires qualifying data-center customers to fund dedicated infrastructure, post financial security, commit to minimum usage and accept exit protections so other customers are not left holding the bill [4]. But LP-6 covers distribution-level infrastructure [4]. The layer above it, transmission network upgrades, is addressed only by a proposed Consumer Protection Transmission Rider still pending before the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission [4].

## The new projects sit exactly in the uncovered layer

That pending gap is where the new lines fall. The Mount Carmel project, the Natalie Transmission Project, is roughly 10 miles of 500-kilovolt line, 6 miles of 230-kilovolt line and a new substation, entirely transmission-scale infrastructure [1]. At Allenwood the model is working as designed so far: PPL's regional affairs director Jonah Howe said the developer is footing the bill under a binding large-voltage tariff agreement, "the customer is paying for the project" [2]. Whether that holds for every future project is exactly what the rider and the PUC proceeding will decide.

## The demand is real, and priced in

The scale behind these lines is not speculative. The state PUC's [Electric Power Outlook](https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/pennsylvania/data-centers-could-drive-nearly-19-jump-in-power-demand-puc-says/article_e8a3a198-d5c0-4ad8-94b9-d82bcd00a039.html) forecasts industrial electricity demand in PPL's service territory, the fastest in the state, growing an average of about 51% a year through 2030, almost entirely from data centers [8]. PPL's chief executive reported a pipeline of 31.8 gigawatts in advanced planning, over 11 gigawatts under signed agreements and more than 6.5 gigawatts under construction [8].

*Chart: **The 31.8 GW pipeline narrows sharply on the way to construction** Bar chart: PPL reports 31.8 gigawatts of data-center demand in advanced planning, over 11 gigawatts under signed agreements and more than 6.5 gigawatts under construction.*

*Data-center load pipeline in PPL's Pennsylvania service territory, in gigawatts, as reported by PPL's chief executive, per WFMZ's report on the state PUC's Electric Power Outlook. [8]*

That is why HSBC initiated coverage of PPL with a Buy on data-center growth on October 22 [5][6][7]. [BofA](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/bank-of-america) cut its target to $37 the same day on higher costs, and [Barclays](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/barclays) had trimmed to $38 from $41 on October 12 while staying Overweight; the demand camp and the cost camp are arguing about the same asset [5][6][7].

*Chart: **PPL trades at a clear premium to its utility peers** Column chart of price-to-earnings ratios: PPL 27.44, AEP 22.05, Duke Energy 18.21, as of October 20, 2026.*

*Price-to-earnings ratios as of October 20, 2026, per MarketBeat figures reported by ad-hoc-news. [7]*

*Chart: **Every active target sits above a $34.65 stock** Column chart of analyst price targets: BofA $37, Barclays $38, analyst average $40, and current PPL share price $34.65.*

*Twelve-month price targets and the October 20, 2026 NYSE quote, in US dollars, per MarketBeat and Markets Insider data reported by ad-hoc-news; targets from BofA (October 22), Barclays (October 12) and HSBC Buy initiation (October 22). [5][6][7]*

## The resistance is organized on two fronts

Governor Josh Shapiro [petitioned on October 16 to join the PUC's large-load proceeding](https://theinference.org/article/shapiro-asks-to-join-ppl-s-rate-case-so-data-centers-pay-their-own-way-on-31-8-gigawatts) to keep data-center costs off other customers' bills, and [PPL responded that its framework already does that](https://energiesmedia.com/ppl-electric-governor-shapiro-petition/) [4]. Locally, Mount Carmel Township supervisors received the Natalie project details by email at 2 p.m. on a Wednesday and voted 3-0 that same evening to oppose it, demanding disclosure of how construction and ongoing costs "would be divided between the new customer and other electric customers" [1]. PPL expects construction in spring 2028 with completion by early 2031, subject to PUC approval [1].

At Allenwood, Union County sent PNK a cease-and-desist over substation work done before county approval, and the Gregg Township zoning vote is set for October 27 [9]. The line itself is planned for late 2027 through the end of 2029 [2].

## What November 6 has to show

Three tells matter in the business plan. First, the capex figure for transmission buildouts like Natalie and Allenwood, which sets how much earning base the data-center demand adds [3].

*Chart: **PPL's capex has stepped up every year as the data-center buildout ramps** Line chart of PPL's quarterly capital expenditures from Q3 2023 to Q2 2026, rising from about $0.26 billion to $1.28 billion, with fourth-quarter peaks of $1.7 billion, $2.0 billion and $2.9 billion.*

*PPL Corporation capital expenditures by calendar quarter, in US dollars, from its SEC filings. Fourth quarters carry the heaviest spending; every 2025 and 2026 quarter ran well above its year-ago counterpart. [10]*

Second, how much of that spend PPL shows as protected by LP-6 commitments and the pending transmission rider, the difference between growth billed to committed customers and growth absorbed into the general rate base [4]. Third, the posture of the rider docket and the PUC proceeding now that the governor is a party [3][4].

## Firm commitments keep the premium; bare capex feeds the $37 camp

If the plan pairs big transmission capex with firm customer commitments, the premium over [Duke](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/duke-energy) and [AEP](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/american-electric-power) holds. If the capex arrives without the protections, the $37 camp has the argument. PPL's next best move is to make the rider's protections so complete that the governor's case runs out of ground; the utility that closes that gap is the one that keeps the data-center business at a price regulators will sign.

## Takeaway

PPL's data-center demand is real and already priced into a premium valuation. The November 6 business plan has to pair transmission capex with firm customer commitments, or the cost camp's lower targets win the argument.

## Sources

1. [The News-Item, PPL proposes 16-mile transmission project to serve data center in Mount Carmel area, 23 October 2026](https://www.newsitem.com/news/local/ppl-proposes-16-mile-transmission-project-to-serve-data-center-in-mount-carmel-area/article_fd9536c3-b4f4-41ce-b0a6-98b8fa228aeb.html)
2. [The Standard-Journal, PPL reveals preferred route for Allenwood transmission project, 24 October 2026](https://www.standard-journal.com/news/local/ppl-reveals-preferred-route-for-allenwood-transmission-project/article_80827302-c110-4388-b50b-d37be4e48cff.html)
3. [PR Newswire, PPL Corporation to conduct webcast on third-quarter 2026 earnings results, 23 October 2026](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ppl-corporation-to-conduct-webcast-on-third-quarter-2026-earnings-results-302918084.html)
4. [Energies Media, PPL Electric Utilities responds to Pennsylvania governor's petition on large-load customer cost protections, 22 October 2026](https://energiesmedia.com/ppl-electric-governor-shapiro-petition/)
5. [Investing.com, BofA cuts PPL stock price target to $37 on higher costs, 22 October 2026](https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/bofa-cuts-ppl-stock-price-target-to-37-on-higher-costs-93CH-4966137)
6. [Investing.com, HSBC initiates PPL stock coverage with buy rating on data center growth, 22 October 2026](https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/hsbc-initiates-ppl-stock-coverage-with-buy-rating-on-data-center-growth-93CH-4965987)
7. [ad-hoc-news (Markets Insider/MarketBeat), Barclays cuts PPL Corporation stock target to USD 38 from USD 41, 20 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/nebenwerte/barclays-cuts-ppl-corporation-stock-target-to-usd-38-from-usd-41/70377655)
8. [WFMZ-TV, Data centers could drive nearly 19% jump in power demand, PUC says, 3 September 2026](https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/pennsylvania/data-centers-could-drive-nearly-19-jump-in-power-demand-puc-says/article_e8a3a198-d5c0-4ad8-94b9-d82bcd00a039.html)
9. [The Standard-Journal, Union County issues substation construction cease-and-desist, 20 October 2026](https://www.standard-journal.com/news/local/union-county-issues-substation-construction-cease-and-desist/article_f3976fb4-7a72-4a33-a254-37f5c58d4acc.html)
10. [PPL Corporation, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 24 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000922224)


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PPL's 31.8 GW pipeline in advanced planning waits on a transmission tariff; plan update November 6 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/ppl-s-31-8-gw-pipeline-in-advanced-planning-waits-on-a-transmission-tariff-plan-update-november-6