---
title: "PSEG raises its five-year regulated investment plan to $22.5-25.5 billion"
description: "The November 6 8-K grows the regulated build and pledges 6%-8% earnings growth through 2030 with no new equity, yet the large-load contracts behind the demand story are still unsigned, PJM's utilities just cut 6.5 GW from their forecasts, and the bill for the wait lands on New Jersey ratepayers through 2028."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Power"
published: 2026-11-10T20:13:51.178Z
modified: 2026-11-10T20:13:51.178Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/pseg-raises-its-five-year-regulated-investment-plan-to-22-5-25-5-billion
language: en
keywords: "Utilities, Nuclear, Data Centers, PJM, New Jersey, Capital Plan"
---

# PSEG raises its five-year regulated investment plan to $22.5-25.5 billion

> The November 6 8-K grows the regulated build and pledges 6%-8% earnings growth through 2030 with no new equity, yet the large-load contracts behind the demand story are still unsigned, PJM's utilities just cut 6.5 GW from their forecasts, and the bill for the wait lands on New Jersey ratepayers through 2028.

[PSEG](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/pseg)'s [investor update filed with the SEC on November 6](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526451864/d173995dex99.htm) raised the utility's regulated capital plan to $22.5-25.5 billion for 2026-2030, about $1.5 billion above the $21-24 billion set a year earlier, inside a $24-28 billion total program it says needs no new equity or asset sales through 2030 [1]. The pledge that sits on top is unchanged: 6%-8% annual operating earnings growth through 2030, carried by rate base compounding 6%-7.5% a year [1].

*Chart: **The regulated build grows $1.5 billion, inside a $28 billion program** Range chart showing PSEG's regulated capital plan for 2026-2030 widening from $21-24 billion to $22.5-25.5 billion, inside a total program of $24-28 billion.*

*Dollar billions for 2026-2030. The November 6 investor update raises the regulated plan about $1.5 billion above the $21-24 billion set a year earlier; the $24-28 billion total program needs no new equity or asset sales through 2030. Source: SEC 8-K Exhibit 99, November 2026 Investor Update, filed November 6, 2026. [1]*

On the demand side, the same deck lists one live item: bilateral contracting with large-load customers for generation "continues to progress favorably" [1]. Favorable progress, no contract. The only announced hyperscaler deal at the Salem nuclear plant PSEG co-owns sits on [Constellation's 97 MW share of the uprate](https://theinference.org/article/google-s-4-3-billion-nuclear-deal-adds-97-mw-at-pseg-s-salem-plant-its-stock-is-still-down-12-this-year); PSEG's own 112 MW share is in the plan, online 2027-2029, and unpriced [1][7].

## The 11.8 GW queue is mostly edge computing

Chief executive Ralph LaRossa told analysts PSE&G's large-load inquiries have held near the 11.8 GW disclosed in December 2025, and called the interest primarily "edge computing" rather than hyperscale data centers [5]. Outside the fence, the forecast is moving the other way: utilities in the PJM grid's footprint, including PPL, [FirstEnergy](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/firstenergy) and AES Ohio, cut their near-term large-load forecasts by 6.5 GW in [filings to PJM's Load Analysis Subcommittee](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-revised-data-center-backstop-procurement-ferc/873551/) [6].

[Jefferies](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/jefferies) estimates the backstop auction PJM built to fill a 6.8 GW capacity shortfall could shrink to roughly 630 MW, less still if developers sign bilateral contracts like the ones PSEG is negotiating [6]. FERC rejected most of PJM's original proposal in late September; the grid operator refiled a revised version on October 29 [6].

*Chart: **PJM built the auction for 6.8 GW; Jefferies sizes it at 630 MW** Bars comparing PJM's 6.8 GW backstop auction target, the 6.5 GW of large-load forecast cuts by utilities in PJM's footprint, and Jefferies' roughly 630 MW estimate for the final procurement, in gigawatts.*

*Gigawatts. PJM's reliability backstop procurement targets the 6.8 GW shortfall from its 2028/29 capacity auction; utilities in PJM's footprint cut near-term large-load forecasts by 6.5 GW (Jefferies, October 28 note), and Jefferies estimates the final procurement at roughly 630 MW, less if developers sign bilateral contracts. Sources: Utility Dive, November 3, 2026; Grid Brief, November 4, 2026. [6][7]*

## Who carries the bill while the wait runs

The utility math does not wait for a data-center customer. [Third-quarter net income fell to $376 million from $622 million a year earlier](https://njbiz.com/pseg-q3-2026-earnings/), while non-GAAP operating earnings rose to $574 million from $565 million [4]. PSEG Power & Other swung to a $130 million net loss on mark-to-market items, with $68 million of operating earnings underneath [4]. [Guidance of $4.28-$4.40 a share stands](https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:cc80cb07a7dc4:0-weekly-recap-q3-earnings-fall-outlook-reaffirmed-and-2030-growth-goals/) [8].

*Chart: **Mark-to-market halved GAAP net income; operating earnings held** Column chart comparing PSEG's third-quarter GAAP net income and non-GAAP operating earnings in 2025 and 2026: net income fell from $622 million to $376 million while operating earnings rose from $565 million to $574 million.*

*Millions of dollars, PSEG's third quarters. Net income fell to $376 million from $622 million a year earlier as PSEG Power & Other swung to a $130 million net loss on mark-to-market items, with $68 million of operating earnings underneath; non-GAAP operating earnings rose to $574 million from $565 million. Source: NJBIZ, November 9, 2026. [4]*

To bridge to the next rate case, PSE&G has filed a deferral proposal with the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities: from January 2027 it would record a regulatory asset for interest and depreciation on infrastructure outside base rates, keeping distribution rates stable until new rates take effect in 2028, with a June 2027 filing date and the board's prudence review intact [1]. The affordability politics are explicit: a 5% residential gas bill cut took effect October 1, and a PJM cost-allocation win returns about $65 million a year to transmission customers from 2027 [1][5].

## A contract would reprice the nuclear fleet; the fallback is 2028 rates

If a large-load contract lands, PSEG Power, today a $68 million operating quarter inside a GAAP loss, gains a multi-year price for nuclear output [1][4]. If not, the 6%-8% pledge rests on BPU approvals running through 2028 [1]. Salem 1's refueling outage is expected to extend after [an inspection found a degraded thermal shield inside the reactor vessel](https://gridbrief.org/news/analysis/data-centre-load-forecasts-cut-pjm-backstop-pseg-nuclear-deals/) [7].

The stock [closed at $75.03 on November 9 and traded near $74.60 on November 10](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PEG/); Ladenburg Thalmann cut its target to $75.50 from $80.50 on November 3 [9]. Two dated checks decide it: PJM's January 2027 load forecast sets the auction [6], and June 2027 opens the rate case [1].

## Takeaway

PSEG's raised $22.5-25.5 billion regulated plan and 6%-8% growth pledge rest on unsigned nuclear contracts and rate cases through 2028; PJM's January 2027 load forecast and the June 2027 rate case are the checks.

## Sources

1. [SEC EDGAR, Public Service Enterprise Group 8-K Exhibit 99, November 2026 Investor Update, filed 6 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/788784/000119312526451864/d173995dex99.htm)
4. [NJBIZ, PSEG Q3 net income falls as operating earnings rise, 9 November 2026](https://njbiz.com/pseg-q3-2026-earnings/)
5. [The Lincolnian Online, Public Service Enterprise Group Q3 Earnings Call Highlights, 3 November 2026](https://www.thelincolnianonline.com/2026/11/03/public-service-enterprise-group-q3-earnings-call-highlights.html)
6. [Utility Dive, PJM's revised data center backstop procurement plan reduces utility risks: ICF, 3 November 2026](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-revised-data-center-backstop-procurement-ferc/873551/)
7. [Grid Brief, PJM's 6.5 GW forecast cut and PSEG's nuclear deals: the data-centre load is being priced twice, 4 November 2026](https://gridbrief.org/news/analysis/data-centre-load-forecasts-cut-pjm-backstop-pseg-nuclear-deals/)
8. [TradingView, Weekly Recap: Q3 earnings fall, outlook reaffirmed and 2030 growth goals, 10 November 2026](https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:cc80cb07a7dc4:0-weekly-recap-q3-earnings-fall-outlook-reaffirmed-and-2030-growth-goals/)
9. [Yahoo Finance, Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) quote page, retrieved 10 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PEG/)


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PSEG raises its five-year regulated investment plan to $22.5-25.5 billion — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/pseg-raises-its-five-year-regulated-investment-plan-to-22-5-25-5-billion