--- title: "Qualcomm's data-center pivot: $5 billion in fiscal 2027, $15 billion by fiscal 2029, SpaceX first" description: "Guidance issued on November 4: more than $650 million of data-center revenue this fiscal quarter, $5 billion by end-2027, and $15 billion, about 30% of the company, by 2029. Alphabet put $548 million behind the pivot; SpaceX, the first named customer, starts building in 2027." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Chips" published: 2026-11-06T16:14:32.203Z modified: 2026-11-06T16:14:32.203Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/qualcomm-s-data-center-pivot-5-billion-in-fiscal-2027-15-billion-by-fiscal-2029-spacex-first language: en keywords: "Qualcomm, Semiconductors, Data Centers, SpaceX, Alphabet, Earnings" --- # Qualcomm's data-center pivot: $5 billion in fiscal 2027, $15 billion by fiscal 2029, SpaceX first > Guidance issued on November 4: more than $650 million of data-center revenue this fiscal quarter, $5 billion by end-2027, and $15 billion, about 30% of the company, by 2029. Alphabet put $548 million behind the pivot; SpaceX, the first named customer, starts building in 2027. [On Wednesday's earnings call](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/qualcomm-inc-qcom-q4-2026-051630325.html), [Qualcomm](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/qualcomm) put a price on its pivot away from smartphones: more than $650 million of data-center revenue in fiscal Q1 2027, $5 billion for fiscal 2027, $15 billion by fiscal 2029, and data-center silicon at about 30% of the company by then [1][2][5]. Two days later [Alphabet](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/alphabet), Google's parent, [disclosed a $547.9 million stake](https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/alphabet-discloses-548-million-worth-of-qualcomm-stake/ar-AA2gTu1S) in Qualcomm, nearly 3 million shares held as of September, and Qualcomm shares rose more than 3% premarket [3]. The buyers behind the ramp are [Meta](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/meta) and [Amazon](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/amazon) in the data center and [SpaceX](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/spacex) in the field [1][4]. *Chart: **The ladder management drew: $650 million this quarter, $15 billion by 2029** Column chart of Qualcomm's guided data-center revenue: $0.65 billion in fiscal Q1 2027, $5 billion in fiscal 2027 and $15 billion in fiscal 2029.* *Qualcomm guidance for data-center revenue, US$ billions, fiscal periods; the fiscal Q1 2027 figure is expected to exceed $650 million on the first custom-silicon shipments, and the fiscal 2027 target carries a $7 billion exit run rate. Sources: GuruFocus earnings call highlights via Yahoo Finance, November 5, 2026; The Verge, November 4, 2026. [1][2]* ## The receipts: the phone business is shrinking into the gap Fiscal 2026 closed at $43.2 billion of non-GAAP revenue, $10.4 billion of it in the fourth quarter [1]. Handsets sold $5.1 billion in the quarter and are guided down mid-single digits next quarter on [Apple](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/apple)'s modem transition and memory pricing; [smartphone sales are down around 20% against 2025](https://www.androidheadlines.com/2026/11/qualcomm-expects-15-billion-in-data-center-revenue-by-2029.html), with memory costs driven by AI data centers the stated cause [1][2][5]. The handset market is projected to decline low-to-mid teens from 2025 to 2026, and handsets fall below half of Qualcomm's revenue in fiscal 2027 as non-handset revenue grows more than 60% [1]. Automotive just posted its first $2 billion quarter, up 89% year over year [1]. Inference coverage on November 4 carried [the 26% handset decline](https://theinference.org/article/qualcomm-s-handset-chip-sales-fell-26-as-ai-took-the-memory-its-data-center-push-brought-650-million); what is new since is the priced ladder and the named supplier [1]. ## The exhibit: a customer whose towers do not exist yet On November 4 SpaceX [named Qualcomm supplier of the Dragonwing QRU100 and QDU100 radio platforms](https://wirelessestimator.com/articles/2026/spacex-taps-qualcomm-to-power-starlink-mobiles-nationwide-5g-800000-cell-site-build/), 64T64R massive MIMO, for Starlink Mobile's planned terrestrial 5G network: tens of thousands of sites from 2027, contract value undisclosed [4]. SpaceX has separately agreed to pay about $8 billion for up to 14 MHz of paired 800 MHz spectrum, subject to FCC approval, and Bloomberg reports talks to access at least 80,000 US cell sites [4]. Tower owners moved on the spectrum news: [Crown Castle](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/crown-castle) up 13.4%, [American Tower](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/american-tower) 8.2%, SBA 6.7% [4]. *Chart: **Tower owners priced in a SpaceX build the same week** Bars chart of tower stocks' moves on SpaceX spectrum news: Crown Castle up 13.4%, American Tower up 8.2%, SBA up 6.7%.* *One-day share moves in tower stocks on SpaceX's 800 MHz spectrum news, November 2026. Source: WirelessEstimator, November 6, 2026. [4]* ## The skeptics' case, and the company's answer T-Mobile's CTO [John Saw](https://theinference.org/markets/people/john-saw) counts SpaceX's prospective spectrum at roughly 80 MHz, some of it uplink-only, against nearly 400 MHz of low- and mid-band spectrum at [T-Mobile](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/t-mobile-us) [4]. Ookla's RootMetrics testing found roughly one in seven Starlink direct-to-device texts failed against about one in fifty on terrestrial networks [4]. Custom silicon dilutes gross margins, and QCT's guided 20% to 22% segment margin for fiscal Q1 includes a 3-point hit from data-center investment ahead of revenue [1]. The company's answer: two customers at significant scale carry the $5 billion, a third is in advanced discussions, and CFO Akash Palkhiwala said supply, not demand, would constrain upside, with a $7 billion exit run rate into fiscal 2028 [1]. ## Verdict watch FCC approval of the Grain spectrum purchase comes first; SpaceX targets 2027 for both its next-generation satellites and the ground build [4]. The fiscal second-quarter print in late April tests the ramp itself: price increases restore gross margin from that quarter, and the $7 billion exit rate is the rung under the $15 billion [1]. The ladder is priced; the rungs are still unbuilt. ## Takeaway Qualcomm priced its data-center ladder at more than $650 million this quarter, $5 billion in fiscal 2027 and $15 billion by 2029, with Meta, Amazon and SpaceX as the buyers; the rungs are guidance, not revenue yet, and the April print tests the first one. ## Sources 1. [GuruFocus via Yahoo Finance, Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Automotive and Data Center Ramp, 5 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/qualcomm-inc-qcom-q4-2026-051630325.html) 2. [The Verge, Qualcomm is betting big on data centers as smartphone sales sink, 4 November 2026](https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/1026867/qualcomm-earnings-data-centers) 3. [Reuters via MSN, Alphabet discloses $548 million worth of Qualcomm stake, 6 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/alphabet-discloses-548-million-worth-of-qualcomm-stake/ar-AA2gTu1S) 4. [WirelessEstimator, SpaceX taps Qualcomm to power Starlink Mobile's nationwide 5G 80,000 cell site build, 6 November 2026](https://wirelessestimator.com/articles/2026/spacex-taps-qualcomm-to-power-starlink-mobiles-nationwide-5g-800000-cell-site-build/) 5. [Android Headlines, Qualcomm expects $15 Billion in data center revenue by 2029, 5 November 2026](https://www.androidheadlines.com/2026/11/qualcomm-expects-15-billion-in-data-center-revenue-by-2029.html) --- Qualcomm's data-center pivot: $5 billion in fiscal 2027, $15 billion by fiscal 2029, SpaceX first — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/qualcomm-s-data-center-pivot-5-billion-in-fiscal-2027-15-billion-by-fiscal-2029-spacex-first