---
title: "Qualcomm v. Arm: the jury returns Tuesday, but the judge holds the $1.5 billion royalty call"
description: "Jurors in Qualcomm's breach suit against Arm deliberated four hours Friday without a verdict and return Tuesday, October 13. The bigger prize, a five-year royalty holiday worth about $1.5 billion, turns on a ruling Judge Maryellen Noreika has not issued; Arm reports fiscal Q2 on November 4, three weeks after the jury returns."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Silicon"
published: 2026-10-10T13:11:38.558Z
modified: 2026-10-10T13:11:38.558Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/qualcomm-v-arm-the-jury-returns-tuesday-but-the-judge-holds-the-1-5-billion-royalty-call
language: en
keywords: "Arm Holdings, Qualcomm, Litigation, Royalties, Semiconductors"
---

# Qualcomm v. Arm: the jury returns Tuesday, but the judge holds the $1.5 billion royalty call

> Jurors in Qualcomm's breach suit against Arm deliberated four hours Friday without a verdict and return Tuesday, October 13. The bigger prize, a five-year royalty holiday worth about $1.5 billion, turns on a ruling Judge Maryellen Noreika has not issued; Arm reports fiscal Q2 on November 4, three weeks after the jury returns.

A Delaware jury [deliberated about four hours on Friday without a verdict](https://wtvbam.com/2026/10/09/qualcomm-and-arm-set-for-jury-verdict-in-contract-breach-feud/) in [Qualcomm](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/qualcomm)'s breach suit against [Arm](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/arm), and returns on Tuesday, October 13. [1] Qualcomm says Arm withheld software patches and design tools, charged outside a clause meant to keep it within 10% of Arm's lowest price, and leaked a 2024 breach letter to the press, a leak Qualcomm values at $170 million of lost [Meta](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/meta) business. [1][2]

## A five-year holiday, not a verdict

The remedy matters more than the verdict. Qualcomm asked Judge Maryellen Noreika before trial [to rule that a breach suspends its royalty payments to Arm for five years](https://theinference.org/article/qualcomm-asks-a-jury-to-let-it-stop-paying-arm-royalties-for-five-years); she has not ruled, and Arm calls the penalty unenforceable. [1] Analysts put those royalties near $300 million a year, which makes the clause a $1.5 billion lever. [2]

The dependence runs one way. Qualcomm [paid Arm about $443 million, license fees included, in the fiscal year ended March 31](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/qualcomm-waits-jury-arm-443-114215008.html), 9% of Arm's $4.92 billion revenue and close to half of its $908 million operating income; the same payment is about 4% of Qualcomm's $10.43 billion. [3]

## The June quarter shows the exposure

Arm booked $1.29 billion of revenue in the quarter ended June 30, up 22%: $715 million of royalties and $574 million of licensing, of which SoftBank, Arm's majority owner, paid $193 million and is expected to keep paying about $200 million a quarter. [4][2][5]

Both halves took a hit this month. [OpenAI](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/openai), signed for Arm's new AGI data center processor in an order whose size has not been disclosed, [was reported to be running near $50 billion of annualized revenue](https://siliconangle.com/2026/10/08/ai-stocks-crumble-on-report-that-openais-annualized-revenue-is-much-lower-than-previously-believed/), not the roughly $70 billion assumed, because the earlier figure counted partners' gross revenue. [5][6]

*Chart: **Royalties were 55% of Arm's June-quarter revenue, and SoftBank a third of its licensing** Arm's June 2026 quarter revenue split into royalties, derived other licensing, and SoftBank licensing.*

*Millions of US dollars; Arm's fiscal Q1 2027, the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Royalty figure per Tech Times's reporting on the quarter; total revenue per Arm's SEC filings; SoftBank licensing from the July 29, 2026, earnings call as reported by TIKR; other licensing derived as the remainder, $574M less $193M, and not separately source-stated. Sources: Tech Times; Arm SEC filings; TIKR. [2][4][5]*

*Chart: **Arm's revenue has doubled in two years, but operating income swings quarter to quarter** Column chart of Arm's quarterly revenue and operating income from the March 2024 quarter through the June 2026 quarter.*

*US dollars in billions. Arm's fiscal quarters, labeled by calendar quarter of the period end. Revenue and operating income per Arm's SEC filings. Sources: Arm SEC filings (4). [4]*

## The 2033 license is what is being priced

Qualcomm's architecture license runs to 2033, and the fight behind the suit is what it pays for what comes after. [1] Cristiano Amon testified that Arm's proposed royalty step from v9 to v10 is a 1,800% increase, and that a 2013 cap of $1.88 per chip, written for processors with at least five cores, now lands on 288-core server designs. [2][3]

Arm's lawyer told jurors Qualcomm was "not harmed in the least" and blamed Meta's own pivot toward AI glasses for the lost deal value. [1][2] The judge still owes a good-faith ruling from the bench trial that ran alongside the jury case, and [the FTC opened a licensing probe in May](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/chip-royalty-war-heads-to-jury-qualcomm-seeks-1-5b-from-arm-as-ftc-watches/ar-AA2dW0L1). [1][2]

## The window runs to November 4

Arm reached it falling: $275.29 on October 8, [down 6.48% as the OpenAI recount hit chip stocks](https://www.tikr.com/blog/arm-holdings-stock-fell-6-in-a-day-as-an-openai-revenue-report-hit-chip-stocks-heres-where-openai-touches-arms-business), about 3% more on Friday while the Nasdaq rose, near 300 times earnings. [5][7][8] Eliyan, the chiplet startup valued at $1 billion in July, has drawn takeover interest; Arm previously held preliminary acquisition discussions with it and invested $5 million, without placing a formal bid. [9] Fiscal Q2 lands on November 4, the Street at $1.38 billion of revenue. [7]

## What each ruling is worth

A breach finding plus an enforced holiday takes roughly $300 million a year off Arm's royalty line, against $908 million of operating income last fiscal year; a no-breach verdict defers the fight to the 2033 renewal. [2][3] Of the two questions, the clause is the one Arm holders should watch. [3] A breach alone buys Qualcomm a damages claim; the clause buys five years without the royalty bill. The window to position closes Tuesday, when the jury returns. [1]

## Takeaway

The verdict is Tuesday, but Arm's stock trades on Judge Noreika's pending ruling on the five-year, $1.5 billion royalty holiday; that clause, not the jury, decides whether $300 million a year stays on Arm's royalty line.

## Sources

1. [WTVB (Reuters), "Qualcomm and Arm set for jury verdict in contract breach feud", 9 October 2026](https://wtvbam.com/2026/10/09/qualcomm-and-arm-set-for-jury-verdict-in-contract-breach-feud/)
2. [Tech Times, "Chip royalty war heads to jury: Qualcomm seeks $1.5B from Arm as FTC watches", 9 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/chip-royalty-war-heads-to-jury-qualcomm-seeks-1-5b-from-arm-as-ftc-watches/ar-AA2dW0L1)
3. [Yahoo Finance, "Qualcomm Waits on a Jury: Arm Has a $443 Million Customer on the Line", 10 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/qualcomm-waits-jury-arm-443-114215008.html)
4. [Arm, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 10 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001973239)
5. [TIKR, "Arm Holdings Stock Fell 6% in a Day as an OpenAI Revenue Report Hit Chip Stocks. Here's Where OpenAI Touches Arm's Business", 9 October 2026](https://www.tikr.com/blog/arm-holdings-stock-fell-6-in-a-day-as-an-openai-revenue-report-hit-chip-stocks-heres-where-openai-touches-arms-business)
6. [SiliconANGLE, "AI stocks crumble on report that OpenAI's annualized revenue is much lower than believed", 8 October 2026](https://siliconangle.com/2026/10/08/ai-stocks-crumble-on-report-that-openais-annualized-revenue-is-much-lower-than-previously-believed/)
7. [Benzinga, "Why Is Arm Stock Falling on Friday?", 9 October 2026](https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/10/62281260/why-is-arm-stock-falling-on-friday-2)
8. [TradingKey, "Arm Holdings PLC Stock (ARM) Moved Down by 3.06% on Oct 9: What Signal Does It Send?", 9 October 2026](https://www.tradingkey.com/news/market-movers/262208946-market-movers-arm-20261009)
9. [Crypto Briefing, "AI chiplet startup Eliyan draws takeover interest months after $1 billion valuation", 9 October 2026](https://cryptobriefing.com/eliyan-ai-chiplet-takeover-interest/)


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Qualcomm v. Arm: the jury returns Tuesday, but the judge holds the $1.5 billion royalty call — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/qualcomm-v-arm-the-jury-returns-tuesday-but-the-judge-holds-the-1-5-billion-royalty-call