---
title: "Quanta Services fell 11.65% on the election, and $22 billion of its record backlog is only an estimate"
description: "Quanta Services fell 11.65% on November 4 as Democrats swept Congress, and another 10% today. What the market repriced is the $22 billion of its record backlog that is still only an estimate, a number its own filings never isolate."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Power"
published: 2026-11-05T16:40:45.390Z
modified: 2026-11-05T16:40:45.390Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/quanta-services-fell-11-65-on-the-election-and-22-billion-of-its-record-backlog-is-only-an-estimate
language: en
keywords: "Quanta Services, Power Grid, Data Centers, Elections, Stock Moves"
---

# Quanta Services fell 11.65% on the election, and $22 billion of its record backlog is only an estimate

> Quanta Services fell 11.65% on November 4 as Democrats swept Congress, and another 10% today. What the market repriced is the $22 billion of its record backlog that is still only an estimate, a number its own filings never isolate.

## The election flipped a Bernstein rally in one session

On November 3, Bernstein named [Quanta](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/quanta-services) [a preferred name](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/bernstein-names-stocks-buy-data-210636052.html) with an $804 target, counting 244 gigawatts, or 56% of the 433-GW US data-center pipeline, as facing political risk while arguing the projects would still get built, with developers absorbing more of the grid costs [3][6]. [Quanta rose 4.99% to $652.18 that day](https://weissratings.com/en/instant-news-alerts/quanta-services-inc-pwr-up-5-0-time-to-shift-from-cash-to-shares) [3].

Voters answered on November 4: [Democrats took the House and Senate](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/oklo-sinks-6-comfort-systems-200416953.html), and Texas elected Gina Hinojosa, who campaigned on a stricter data-center moratorium [2]. Quanta closed at $580.44, down 11.65%, while the S&P 500 rose about 2%; Comfort Systems fell 16.31% and [EMCOR](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/emcor) 9.86% [1][2]. The selling resumed on November 5, with Quanta near $520, down about 10%, [in afternoon trading](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/11/03/ge-vernova-rallies-7-as-bernstein-calls-election-day-data-center-fears-overblown-eaton-climbs-6-vertiv-gains-5/) [9].

*Chart: **The grid contractors fell while the market rose** Column chart of November 4 percentage moves for Quanta Services, Comfort Systems USA, EMCOR and the S&P 500*

*One-day share price change on November 4, 2026, percent. The S&P 500 rose about 2% while the grid contractors sold off. Sources: Kalkine Media; Insider Monkey via Yahoo Finance. [1][2]*

## $22 billion of the record backlog is not yet an order

The reprice lands on a split inside Quanta's own third-quarter release, published October 29 [4]. Firm contracted work, which the company calls [remaining performance obligations](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/quanta-services-reports-third-quarter-2026-results-302922956.html), was $41.75 billion at September 30 [4]. Estimated orders under master service agreements and short-term contracts added $21.98 billion, and that sum is the record $63.73 billion backlog [4].

In the Electric segment, $14.53 billion of $51.89 billion is estimate rather than order [4]. The market handed down an 11.65% verdict on a number Quanta never prints: [neither the release nor the 10-Q quantifies data-center revenue or backlog at all](https://nashvance.com/companies/pwr/) [5]. The Inference [reported the backlog itself on November 2](https://theinference.org/article/quanta-services-63-73-billion-backlog-says-ai-grid-work-is-supply-bound-not-a-demand-cliff); new since is the repricing, and the firm-versus-estimated split underneath it [5].

## The firm half doubled in a year regardless

A year earlier the split was $20.97 billion firm and $18.20 billion estimated [4]. Firm orders doubled in twelve months; the estimated layer grew about a fifth. [Third-quarter revenue was $12.01 billion, up 57%](https://kalkinemedia.com/us/stocks/infrastructure-and-real-estate/can-quanta-services-nysepwr-sustain-growth-following-its-record-performance) from $7.63 billion, adjusted diluted EPS was $6.06 against a $5.03 consensus, and net income attributable to common stock was $694.9 million [3][4].

*Chart: **Revenue growth accelerated to 57% year over year in Q3** Column chart of Quanta Services quarterly revenue from Q2 2024 to Q3 2026*

*Quarterly revenue, billions of dollars, from Quanta's SEC filings. Year-over-year growth accelerated from 10.8% in Q2 2024 to 57.4% in Q3 2026. Source: Quanta Services quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 5 November 2026. [10]*

Management raised 2026 guidance to $41.3 billion to $41.6 billion of revenue and $17.90 to $18.30 of adjusted EPS, and chief executive Duke Austin pointed to "opportunity to deliver strong double-digit adjusted EPS growth in 2027" [4]. No customer reached 10% of revenue in the first nine months of 2026 [5].

*Chart: **Firm contracted work doubled to $41.8B; the estimated layer barely moved** Column chart of Quanta backlog split into firm contracted work and estimated orders at three period ends*

*Backlog components as reported in Quanta's Q3 2026 earnings release, billions of dollars, at period end. [4]*

## What converts and what stalls

On the earnings call, Austin said Quanta added roughly 12,000 employees organically this year, that growth is not dependent solely on data centers, and that [the big 765-kilovolt transmission builds have not yet materially entered backlog](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/quanta-services-q3-earnings-call-011407939.html), with Texas and Ohio bookings possible in the first half of 2027 [7]. The utility base, about $20 billion of Electric activity, is designed for 10% to 12% margins [7].

![A Quanta Services hard hat with the company's safety mission printed on its side](https://storage.googleapis.com/theinference-public/img/d4671732e45a8311.jpg)

*A Quanta Services hard hat on a jobsite. The company added roughly 12,000 employees organically this year, chief executive Duke Austin said on the earnings call. (Quanta Services via LinkedIn)*

The tell is the estimated slice at each quarter-end: if it shrinks, master service agreements stopped issuing work. The first hard readings come with the fourth-quarter report expected in February 2027, when guidance arithmetic implies adjusted EPS of $4.92 to $5.32 against the third quarter's $6.06 [5].

## Takeaway

Quanta's record $63.73 billion backlog splits into $41.75 billion of signed orders and $21.98 billion of estimated MSA work; the election selloff repriced the estimated layer, and whether that slice shrinks in the February 2027 report is the test.

## Sources

1. [Kalkine Media, Can Quanta Services (NYSE:PWR) Sustain Growth Following Its Record Performance?, November 4, 2026](https://kalkinemedia.com/us/stocks/infrastructure-and-real-estate/can-quanta-services-nysepwr-sustain-growth-following-its-record-performance)
2. [Insider Monkey via Yahoo Finance, Oklo Sinks 6%, Comfort Systems USA Down 15% as Democratic Sweep Rattles AI Power Stocks, November 4, 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/oklo-sinks-6-comfort-systems-200416953.html)
3. [Weiss Ratings, Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR) Up 5.0%: Time to Shift From Cash to Shares?, November 3, 2026](https://weissratings.com/en/instant-news-alerts/quanta-services-inc-pwr-up-5-0-time-to-shift-from-cash-to-shares)
4. [Quanta Services press release via PR Newswire, Quanta Services Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results, October 29, 2026](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/quanta-services-reports-third-quarter-2026-results-302922956.html)
5. [Nash & Vance Research, Quanta Services (PWR): Who has the skilled crews to rebuild the grid, and what are they worth?, November 2026](https://nashvance.com/companies/pwr/)
6. [Investing.com via Yahoo Finance, Bernstein names stocks to buy as data centre political risks appear overstated, November 2, 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/bernstein-names-stocks-buy-data-210636052.html)
7. [MarketBeat via Yahoo Finance, Quanta Services Q3 Earnings Call Highlights, October 30, 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/quanta-services-q3-earnings-call-011407939.html)
9. [24/7 Wall St., GE Vernova Rallies 7% as Bernstein Calls Election-Day Data Center Fears Overblown, November 3, 2026 (live quotes retrieved November 5, 2026)](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/11/03/ge-vernova-rallies-7-as-bernstein-calls-election-day-data-center-fears-overblown-eaton-climbs-6-vertiv-gains-5/)
10. [Quanta Services, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 5 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001050915)


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Quanta Services fell 11.65% on the election, and $22 billion of its record backlog is only an estimate — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/quanta-services-fell-11-65-on-the-election-and-22-billion-of-its-record-backlog-is-only-an-estimate