--- title: "RBC cuts Mobileye to $5 against an $11 consensus before its October 29 report, with 20.6% of the float short" description: "Mobileye reports on October 29 with a fifth of its float sold short, its founder on his way out, and RBC's $5 target set against an $11 consensus. The Volkswagen relationship decides the argument, and no company has confirmed what the footage suggests." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Chips" published: 2026-10-22T18:09:48.653Z modified: 2026-10-22T18:09:48.653Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/rbc-cuts-mobileye-to-5-against-an-11-consensus-before-its-october-29-report-with-20-6-of-the-float-short language: en keywords: "Mobileye, Analyst Calls, Short Interest, Autonomous Vehicles, Earnings, Volkswagen" --- # RBC cuts Mobileye to $5 against an $11 consensus before its October 29 report, with 20.6% of the float short > Mobileye reports on October 29 with a fifth of its float sold short, its founder on his way out, and RBC's $5 target set against an $11 consensus. The Volkswagen relationship decides the argument, and no company has confirmed what the footage suggests. ## The charge: Volkswagen, by name [Footage posted on October 18](https://old.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/1x6w6q4/moia_vehicle_with_wayve_technology_spotted_in/) shows a van of Volkswagen's MOIA ride-hailing unit at a rest stop on Germany's A8 motorway, a [Wayve](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/wayve) logo on its autonomous kit, and self-driving watchers read it as Volkswagen moving its robotaxi software from [Mobileye](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/mobileye) to the London startup [1][2]. No company involved has confirmed a switch. ![Rear view of a Volkswagen ID. Buzz autonomous prototype with roof and side sensor pods at the IAA Summit in Munich in September 2023](https://storage.googleapis.com/theinference-public/img/4ec63b3411dd0fcc.jpg) *Volkswagen's MOIA autonomous ID. Buzz prototype at the IAA Summit in Munich in September 2023. Footage posted on October 18, 2026 showed a MOIA van at a rest stop on the A8 with a Wayve logo on its autonomous kit; no company involved has confirmed a switch away from Mobileye. (Matti Blume via Wikimedia Commons)* Three days later, RBC Capital Markets cut Mobileye, the [Intel](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/intel)-controlled Israeli maker of driver-assistance chips and software, to Underperform from Sector Perform and [lowered its target to $5 from $7](https://www.tradingview.com/news/seekingalpha:a3117c7ea094b:0-mobileye-downgraded-as-nvidia-qualcomm-processors-threaten-driver-assistance-biz/) [3]. Automakers are folding driver assistance into central computers from the chipmakers [Nvidia](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nvidia) and [Qualcomm](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/qualcomm), advanced-product wins "have failed to materialize", and Volkswagen, which carries the premium line, "could move away", RBC wrote [3]. The shares fell 4% to $7.04 in premarket trading [3]. ## The evidence: a fifth of the float sold short Mobileye [reports third-quarter results before the open on October 29](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/upcoming-mobileye-global-mbly-set-to-post-earnings-on-thursday-2026-10-22/), with consensus at $0.1013 a share on $476.78 million of revenue [4]. [Shorts hold 20.6% of the free float](https://ortex.news/articles/192526/mobileye-bears-dig-in-before-q3-print), up more than 20% in a month, 6.5 days to cover [5]. Directors Frank Yeary and Safroadu Yeboah-Amankwah paid $7.98 and $8.46 in open-market buys in July and August, [as The Inference reported on October 15](https://theinference.org/article/mobileye-s-directors-bought-near-8-the-banks-now-say-7-50-or-less); the stock opened Thursday at $7.02, fifty-five cents above its 52-week low [4]. Intel owns about 77% of the shares [6]. *Chart: **RBC's $5 is the only Mobileye target below the $7.02 share price** Bar chart of Mobileye analyst price targets: RBC $5, UBS $7.50, Goldman Sachs and Mizuho $8, Barclays and Morgan Stanley $9, Citi and Evercore ISI $11, consensus $11.08, with a reference line at the $7.02 share price.* *Analyst 12-month price targets for Mobileye in US dollars, as of October 21 to 22, 2026, against the October 22 opening price. Sources: Seeking Alpha via TradingView, MarketBeat, ORTEX. [3][4][5]* ## The defense: $24.5 billion of pipeline The bulls start with the second quarter: adjusted earnings of $0.19 beat by $0.13 on $508 million of revenue, and [full-year adjusted operating income guidance rose to $365 million to $425 million from $185 million to $235 million](https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/general/mobileye-slips-despite-strong-results-guidance-founder-steps-down/ar-AA28wHY3) [4][7]. Add a $24.5 billion eight-year revenue pipeline, Stellantis design wins, earnings revisions ranked in the 98th percentile, and a planned United States robotaxi fleet of its own from 2027 [5][8]. [Citigroup](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/citigroup) started coverage at Buy with an $11 target on October 16, and the 23-analyst consensus of $11.08 implies roughly 56% upside [4][5]. ## The prosecution: the founder has already gone The bears answer that SuperVision volumes with Porsche and Audi slipped to late 2027, that returns on capital are deeply negative, and that the EyeQ chip is exactly what a central Nvidia or Qualcomm computer replaces [3][5]. [Amnon Shashua](https://theinference.org/markets/people/amnon-shashua), with 27 years building the company and a $15.3 billion sale to Intel in 2017 behind him, [told the board on July 18 he would step down](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/MBLY/pressreleases/3445131/mobileye-announces-ceo-succession-and-strategic-leadership-transition/) [6][7]. Days before the print he [unveiled doubleAI, a $200 million Series A](https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/sk11xpc73ge) co-led by [Lightspeed](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/lightspeed) and Bessemer with Nvidia participating, valued above $1 billion [9]. Nvidia stands on both sides of this argument: the processor RBC says will commoditize Mobileye, and the money behind its founder's next company. *Chart: **Eight quarters of revenue pinned near half a billion dollars** Column chart of Mobileye quarterly revenue from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026, ranging from $438 million to $558 million, plus an estimated bar for Q3 2026 at $477 million.* *Mobileye quarterly revenue in US$ millions from its SEC filings; the final bar is analyst consensus of $476.78 million ahead of the October 29 report. [10][4]* ## The verdict watch: October 29, 8 a.m. The footage settles nothing yet: [MOIA's ID. Buzz vans testing in Los Angeles](https://insideevs.com/news/798968/mobileye-robotaxi-us-launch-2027/) still run Mobileye software [8]. Wayve, for its part, carries production agreements with Mercedes-Benz, Nissan and Stellantis [11]. Second-half SuperVision shipment guidance is the number to watch on the call. On Volkswagen's intentions, only Volkswagen can speak. ## Takeaway RBC's $5 target against an $11.08 consensus frames Mobileye's October 29 report: a fifth of the float is short, the founder is leaving, and Volkswagen's unconfirmed robotaxi software choice is the swing factor. ## Sources 1. [Reddit, r/SelfDrivingCars, "MOIA vehicle with Wayve Technology spotted in Germany", 18 October 2026](https://old.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/1x6w6q4/moia_vehicle_with_wayve_technology_spotted_in/) 2. [X, @gbrulte post on Volkswagen, Mobileye and Wayve, 21 October 2026](https://x.com/gbrulte/status/2111190200634216527) 3. [Seeking Alpha via TradingView, "Mobileye downgraded as Nvidia, Qualcomm processors threaten driver-assistance biz", 21 October 2026](https://www.tradingview.com/news/seekingalpha:a3117c7ea094b:0-mobileye-downgraded-as-nvidia-qualcomm-processors-threaten-driver-assistance-biz/) 4. [MarketBeat, "Mobileye Global (MBLY) Set to Post Earnings on Thursday", 22 October 2026](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/upcoming-mobileye-global-mbly-set-to-post-earnings-on-thursday-2026-10-22/) 5. [ORTEX News, "Mobileye Bears Dig In Before Q3 Print", 21 October 2026](https://ortex.news/articles/192526/mobileye-bears-dig-in-before-q3-print) 6. [TipRanks via The Globe and Mail, "Mobileye Announces CEO Succession and Strategic Leadership Transition", 24 July 2026](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/MBLY/pressreleases/3445131/mobileye-announces-ceo-succession-and-strategic-leadership-transition/) 7. [Seeking Alpha via MSN, "Mobileye slips despite strong results, guidance; founder steps down", 23 July 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/general/mobileye-slips-despite-strong-results-guidance-founder-steps-down/ar-AA28wHY3) 8. [InsideEVs, "Mobileye, Supplier Of Robotaxi Tech, Is Launching Its Own Robotaxi Fleet In The U.S.", 17 June 2026](https://insideevs.com/news/798968/mobileye-robotaxi-us-launch-2027/) 9. [Calcalist Tech, "Shashua's doubleAI unveils AI models that optimize how software runs", 20 October 2026](https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/sk11xpc73ge) 10. [Mobileye, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 22 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001910139) 11. [motor1.com via MSN, "Mercedes and Wayve are bringing a new AI driver to production cars in two years", 23 September 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/mercedes-and-wayve-are-bringing-a-new-ai-driver-to-production-cars-in-two-years/ar-AA2cShPM) --- RBC cuts Mobileye to $5 against an $11 consensus before its October 29 report, with 20.6% of the float short — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/rbc-cuts-mobileye-to-5-against-an-11-consensus-before-its-october-29-report-with-20-6-of-the-float-short