--- title: "Red Cat announced four deals in a month without an order; it needs $57 million a quarter to hit guidance" description: "Red Cat signed a non-exclusive GPS-denied navigation MOU on November 2 with no purchase order and no customer, its fourth headline in a month, while bookings run at a third of the pace guidance needs. November 16 is the test." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Robotics & Defense" published: 2026-11-05T16:31:44.973Z modified: 2026-11-05T16:31:44.973Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/red-cat-announced-four-deals-in-a-month-without-an-order-it-needs-57-million-a-quarter-to-hit-guidance language: en keywords: "Red Cat, Drones, Defense, Guidance" --- # Red Cat announced four deals in a month without an order; it needs $57 million a quarter to hit guidance > Red Cat signed a non-exclusive GPS-denied navigation MOU on November 2 with no purchase order and no customer, its fourth headline in a month, while bookings run at a third of the pace guidance needs. November 16 is the test. [Red Cat Holdings](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/red-cat-holdings), the Salt Lake City maker of Black Widow drones, the U.S. Army's short-range reconnaissance drone, and Blue Ops boats, signed a [memorandum of understanding](https://robograph.news/en/news/red-cat-and-sine-engineering-team-up-on-gps-denied-navigation) on November 2 with Sine Advanced Engineering, the U.S. arm of Ukraine-rooted Sine Engineering, to put GPS-denied navigation and resilient communications into its aircraft and uncrewed surface vessels [1]. The document commits the two companies only to integration and evaluation: it is non-exclusive, carries no financial terms, no purchase order and no named customer or program [1]. Red Cat says Sine's integration was crucial to the success of Hellcat, one of its aerial drone platforms, in Ukraine, and published no performance figures or test results to check against [1]. ## The fourth announcement, none of them an order The Sine deal makes four headlines in a month [1][2]. On October 22 Blue Ops opened orders for the 18-foot B-18 and 39-foot B-39 boats, with no customer and no revenue named; on October 19 Red Cat signed [an agreement to buy Austria's Steyr Motors](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/RCAT/), a diesel engine maker, for €39.00 a share in cash, about €205 million, a 28.9% premium [2][5]. That bid needs 50% acceptance plus clearances in Austria, Italy, Australia and the UK, with acceptance closing December 18 [2]. ![A Blue Ops uncrewed surface vessel under way at sunset](https://storage.googleapis.com/theinference-public/img/a291474183d5323c.jpg) *A Blue Ops uncrewed surface vessel. Blue Ops opened orders for its B-18 and B-39 boats on October 22 with no customer named. (Courtesy of Red Cat Holdings)* ## The arithmetic the announcements have to outrun [Guidance for 2026 is $150 million to $180 million](https://theinference.org/article/red-cat-splits-wall-street-a-6-price-target-against-25-with-results-due-november-16) [5]. The first half booked $35.7 million, so the second half needs roughly $57 million to $72 million a quarter against a June quarter of $20.2 million [5]. The chart is the gap. *Chart: **Revenue is climbing fast and still trails the guidance floor by roughly triple** Column chart of Red Cat quarterly revenue from Q1 2025 to Q2 2026, rising from $1.6 million to $20.2 million, with a reference line at $57 million marking the quarterly run rate the second half must reach to hit the $150 million guidance floor.* *Quarterly revenue in millions of US dollars from SEC filings, calendar quarters; the reference line is a guidance-derived threshold, not a reported figure: the $150 million guidance floor less $35.7 million booked in H1 2026, spread over two quarters [5][6]* ## Shares at a new low, insiders selling into the bid Meanwhile the shares closed at $4.00 on November 4, a new low, down 49.56% for the year, valuing the company at about $610.9 million [2][3]. Seven analysts average a $15.57 target and Roth MKM, a brokerage, sits at $25 [3][5]. Piper Sandler, also a brokerage, holds the outlier Neutral at $6 [3][5]. Newswire records also show [three insider sales](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/red-cat-partners-with-sine-engineering-on-maritime-aerial-systems-ce785fd9d980f122): $1.57 million on August 19, $1.16 million on September 18 and $676,500 on October 19, the day the Steyr bid was announced [3]. ## What Monday the 16th decides [Q3 results land after the close on November 16](https://robograph.news/en/news/red-cat-earnings-date-set-for-nov-16-third-quarter-report), then management meets investors at Deutsche Bank's defense summit on November 18 and [Bank of America](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/bank-of-america)'s forum on December 3 [4]. The report has to show booked revenue against the guide, any change to it, and whether any announcement, Sine included, has become a purchase order with a name attached. Until then, no performance figures or customer orders support the Sine claim, and the Steyr cash commitment stands against a company booking a third of the pace it promised [1][5]. ## Takeaway Red Cat's four November announcements carry no purchase orders; Q3 results on November 16 must show bookings near $57 million a quarter to keep the $150 million guidance floor alive. ## Sources 1. [RoboGraph News, Red Cat and Sine Engineering team up on GPS-denied navigation, 2 November 2026](https://robograph.news/en/news/red-cat-and-sine-engineering-team-up-on-gps-denied-navigation) 2. [StockTitan, Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) stock news feed, accessed 5 November 2026](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/RCAT/) 3. [MarketScreener / MT Newswires, Red Cat partners with Sine Engineering on maritime, aerial systems, 2 November 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/red-cat-partners-with-sine-engineering-on-maritime-aerial-systems-ce785fd9d980f122) 4. [RoboGraph News, Red Cat to report Q3 results on Nov 16 via video webinar, 26 October 2026](https://robograph.news/en/news/red-cat-earnings-date-set-for-nov-16-third-quarter-report) 5. [The Inference, Red Cat splits Wall Street: a $6 price target against $25, with results due November 16, 30 October 2026](https://theinference.org/article/red-cat-splits-wall-street-a-6-price-target-against-25-with-results-due-november-16) 6. [Red Cat Holdings quarterly revenue from SEC filings, via company_series, retrieved 5 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000748268) --- Red Cat announced four deals in a month without an order; it needs $57 million a quarter to hit guidance — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/red-cat-announced-four-deals-in-a-month-without-an-order-it-needs-57-million-a-quarter-to-hit-guidance