---
title: "Regal Rexnord is 37% off its high as record credit spreads on Oracle and CoreWeave test its Nov. 3 orders"
description: "Regal Rexnord closed October 14 at $157.06, 37% below its 52-week high, as record default-insurance costs on Oracle and CoreWeave raised the question of whether AI data-center building keeps getting funded. The same analysts cutting targets still say buy, and the November 3 order book votes first."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Markets"
published: 2026-10-16T01:42:40.868Z
modified: 2026-10-16T01:42:40.868Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/regal-rexnord-is-37-off-its-high-as-record-credit-spreads-on-oracle-and-coreweave-test-its-nov-3-orders
language: en
keywords: "Regal Rexnord, Credit Markets, Data Centers, Analyst Ratings, AI Infrastructure"
---

# Regal Rexnord is 37% off its high as record credit spreads on Oracle and CoreWeave test its Nov. 3 orders

> Regal Rexnord closed October 14 at $157.06, 37% below its 52-week high, as record default-insurance costs on Oracle and CoreWeave raised the question of whether AI data-center building keeps getting funded. The same analysts cutting targets still say buy, and the November 3 order book votes first.

Credit markets put a price on doubt this week. [Reuters reported on October 15](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/cost-of-ai-default-insurance-spikes-as-data-centre-confidence-wobbles/ar-AA2egPlv) that five-year default insurance on [Oracle](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/oracle) widened overnight to a record 288 basis points, SoftBank moved to 424, and data center operator [CoreWeave](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/coreweave) blew out past 1,000 bps, [its 2032 bonds changing hands at 77 cents on the dollar against nearly $50 billion owed](https://theinference.org/article/meta-s-best-month-since-2022-ends-with-its-data-center-debt-at-91-cents) [1]. That is the bond market asking how the AI building boom gets funded. [Regal Rexnord](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/regal-rexnord), the Milwaukee maker of the motors, fans and precision motion parts inside those data centers, is paid only if it does.

*Chart: **Default insurance on CoreWeave blew past 1,000 bps as Oracle hit a record 288** Bar chart of five-year default insurance spreads in basis points: CoreWeave past 1,000, SoftBank at 424, Oracle at a record 288.*

*Five-year credit default swap spreads in basis points as reported by Reuters on October 15, 2026; CoreWeave is plotted at the 1,000 bps level its spread passed, with its 2032 bonds trading near 77 cents on the dollar against nearly $50 billion owed. Source: Reuters via MSN [1]. [1]*

## The cuts took targets down, not the buy ratings

[RRX](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/regal-rexnord) closed October 14 at $157.06, down 3.8% and roughly 37% below its 52-week high of $247.80 [2]. Two cuts landed in two days: Oppenheimer [moved its target from $245 to $200 on October 8](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/oppenheimer-adjusts-regal-rexnord-price-target-to-200-from-245-maintains-outperform-rating-ce785ddfdb89f323) while keeping Outperform [3], and JPMorgan [moved from $240 to $196 on October 9](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/analyst-jpmorgan-chase-co-cuts-regal-rexnord-nyse-rrx-price-target-to-19600-2026-10-09/) while keeping Overweight [4]. Neither cut carried the rating to sell. The one rating change in that stretch went away from buy instead: Wall Street Zen downgraded its call on RRX to Hold on October 3 [4].

## Twelve of thirteen analysts still say buy

[FactSet](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/factset) counts 13 covering analysts at 12 Buys and one Hold, [average target $231.10, about 40% above the October 9 close](https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:d69951e015b7b:0-regal-rexnord-corporation-stock-12-month-price-target-cut-to-231-1-implies-40-upside/) [5]. MarketBeat's tracker shows eight Buys and three Holds at a $235.50 average, so the counts differ by tracker [4]. Their case is the quarter: Q2 revenue of $1.56 billion, up 4.2% year over year, adjusted EPS of $2.99 against $2.58 expected, and orders lifted by data center, commercial HVAC and discrete automation demand [4][6]. After four quarters of shrinking sales, growth turned positive in late 2025 and has held since [8].

*Chart: **Revenue growth turned positive in late 2025 and has held since** Line chart of Regal Rexnord quarterly revenue year-over-year growth from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026, turning from negative to positive.*

*Quarterly revenue year over year, percent, Q3 2024 to Q2 2026, from Regal Rexnord's SEC filings. Source: [8]. [8]*

Guidance of $10.35 to $10.85 in adjusted EPS holds the line [4], but it leans on tariff refunds to protect margins [6], and [insiders have sold $27.7 million of stock in the past year with no buying](https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9124285/regal-rexnord-corp-rrx-shares-fall-38-what-gf-score-of-83-tells-investors) [2].

## The order book settles it

Credit markets question whether the money arrives; equity analysts have bet that it already has. RRX's order book sits between them. [Q3 results land before the market opens on November 3](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/regal-rexnord-corporation-host-third-210000457.html), the first reported orders since the credit scare began [7]. Two numbers decide which camp wins the next round: whether reported orders hold the data-center-driven growth of Q2, and whether margins hold without leaning harder on tariff refunds.

*Chart: **Every target cut left buy ratings well above the broken stock** Bars comparing broker price targets for RRX after the October cuts against the current share price marked as a reference line.*

*Price targets in US dollars per RRX share after the October cuts; line marks the October 14, 2026, close of $157.06. Sources: MarketBeat [4], MarketScreener/MT Newswires [3], TradingView/FactSet [5], GuruFocus [2]. [2][3][4][5]*

## Takeaway

Record default insurance on Oracle and CoreWeave has put the AI funding question to Regal Rexnord: the stock is 37% off its high and targets are cut, but 12 of 13 analysts still say buy, and the November 3 order book reports first.

## Sources

1. [Reuters via MSN, Cost of AI default insurance spikes as data centre confidence wobbles, 15 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/cost-of-ai-default-insurance-spikes-as-data-centre-confidence-wobbles/ar-AA2egPlv)
2. [GuruFocus, Regal Rexnord Corp (RRX) Shares Fall 3.8% -- What GF Score of 83 Tells Investors, 14 October 2026](https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9124285/regal-rexnord-corp-rrx-shares-fall-38-what-gf-score-of-83-tells-investors)
3. [MT Newswires via MarketScreener, Oppenheimer Adjusts Regal Rexnord Price Target to $200 From $245, Maintains Outperform Rating, 8 October 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/oppenheimer-adjusts-regal-rexnord-price-target-to-200-from-245-maintains-outperform-rating-ce785ddfdb89f323)
4. [MarketBeat, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Cuts Regal Rexnord (NYSE:RRX) Price Target to $196.00, 10 October 2026](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/analyst-jpmorgan-chase-co-cuts-regal-rexnord-nyse-rrx-price-target-to-19600-2026-10-09/)
5. [TradingView (FactSet data), Regal Rexnord Corporation Stock 12-Month Price Target Cut to $231.1, Implies 40% Upside, 13 October 2026](https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:d69951e015b7b:0-regal-rexnord-corporation-stock-12-month-price-target-cut-to-231-1-implies-40-upside/)
6. [Simply Wall St via Yahoo Finance, Did Strong Q2 Data Center Demand and Steady Guidance Just Shift Regal Rexnord's (RRX) Investment Narrative?, 10 October 2026](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/did-strong-q2-data-center-151455519.html)
7. [PR Newswire via Yahoo Finance, Regal Rexnord Corporation to Host Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call on Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026, 5 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/regal-rexnord-corporation-host-third-210000457.html)
8. [Regal Rexnord, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 15 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000082811)


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Regal Rexnord is 37% off its high as record credit spreads on Oracle and CoreWeave test its Nov. 3 orders — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/regal-rexnord-is-37-off-its-high-as-record-credit-spreads-on-oracle-and-coreweave-test-its-nov-3-orders