--- title: "Rigetti Computing jumped 49% in five days on a $5.8 million Air Force deal and its own 99.5% fidelity claim" description: "Rigetti Computing fell 26% in a month, then jumped 49% in five days, on a $5.8 million Air Force contract and a 99.5% fidelity claim measured in its own labs. The filings show quarterly revenue under $5.2 million." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Chips" published: 2026-10-26T13:26:58.029Z modified: 2026-10-26T13:26:58.029Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/rigetti-computing-jumped-49-in-five-days-on-a-5-8-million-air-force-deal-and-its-own-99-5-fidelity-claim language: en keywords: "Quantum Computing, Stock Moves, Government Contracts, Dilution" --- # Rigetti Computing jumped 49% in five days on a $5.8 million Air Force deal and its own 99.5% fidelity claim > Rigetti Computing fell 26% in a month, then jumped 49% in five days, on a $5.8 million Air Force contract and a 99.5% fidelity claim measured in its own labs. The filings show quarterly revenue under $5.2 million. Five trading days, roughly 49% added to [Rigetti](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/rigetti) Computing's share price, and the whole thing turns on a number measured inside Rigetti's own labs [3][2]. The Berkeley-based quantum chipmaker fell 26% in the month through mid-October, dragged down when [IonQ](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/ionq) priced a $2 billion stock sale and investors marked every quantum name down as a cash-burning dilution machine [3][2]. Then the same stock [rebounded 49% in the week just ended](https://startupfortune.com/rigetti-computing-stock-jumps-49-this-week-on-air-force-deal-and-quantum-rally/), on a $5.8 million Air Force contract and a fidelity claim nobody outside the company has audited [1]. That round trip, up then down then up again on billions of market value, is the trade retail buyers just paid for. ## The filings show a business far smaller than the valuation [The company's filings show](https://www.tikr.com/blog/d-wave-sinks-31-in-a-month-rigetti-26-is-it-time-to-sell-or-load-up) the commercial reality: [quarterly revenue between about $1.5 million and $5.1 million for the past two years](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001838359), $5.1 million in the second quarter of 2026, against a multibillion-dollar valuation [3]. The checkable government money arrives far slower than the headlines. *Chart: **Rigetti's quarterly revenue has never cleared $5.2 million** Bar chart of Rigetti quarterly revenue in USD millions from Q1 2024 through Q2 2026, ranging from about $1.5 million to $5.1 million.* *Quarterly revenue as reported in Rigetti's SEC filings, USD millions. Two years of quarters, every one under $5.2 million. Source: Rigetti SEC filings via company_series, retrieved October 26, 2026. [3]* The new Air Force Research Laboratory deal, disclosed October 21, pays $5.8 million over five years for quantum foundry services and cryogenic components, real work, small money [1]. Rigetti also holds a CHIPS Act deal of up to $100 million on the same terms D-Wave finalized in September, and the government takes a minority equity stake in return, which means more dilution, just slower [2]. ## The cash cushion came from selling the rally The cushion is real, and it exists because of the rally, not despite it. Rigetti completed a $350 million at-the-market equity raise and holds roughly $575 million in cash and investments with no debt [1]. Shareholders funded that cushion by selling the stock into the enthusiasm. The engine under the week's move was not Rigetti at all: IonQ's blowout fourth-quarter 2025 report, full-year revenue up 202% to $130 million and 2026 guidance of $280 to $290 million, lifted every quantum name in sympathy [1]. Rigetti is simply the highest-beta way to trade that sector story. ## The skeptics' price target sits below the tape Analyst targets cluster in the high teens to the low $40s, against an October peak above $56 [1]. The fidelity claim could hold up under independent replication; until someone outside Rigetti runs the benchmarking, buyers are trusting the company's own number [1]. The falsifiers are plain: an outsider reproducing the 99.5% figure, or commercial revenue beyond Novera systems and government contracts. Neither has arrived. The gap between what the market cap implies and what has been proven did not close this week. It widened. Deep dive in below to learn more. Watch the third-quarter report, due in early November, and any independent test of the chip. ## Takeaway Rigetti's 49% five-day jump rests on a $5.8 million contract and a fidelity figure nobody outside the company has checked, while ten straight quarters of filings show revenue under $5.2 million. ## Sources 1. [Startup Fortune, Rigetti Computing stock jumps 49% this week on Air Force deal and quantum rally, 25 October 2026](https://startupfortune.com/rigetti-computing-stock-jumps-49-this-week-on-air-force-deal-and-quantum-rally/) 2. [TIKR, D-Wave Sinks 31% in a Month, Rigetti 26%: Is It Time to Sell, or Load Up?, 23 October 2026](https://www.tikr.com/blog/d-wave-sinks-31-in-a-month-rigetti-26-is-it-time-to-sell-or-load-up) 3. [Rigetti, quarterly figures from SEC filings, retrieved 26 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001838359) --- Rigetti Computing jumped 49% in five days on a $5.8 million Air Force deal and its own 99.5% fidelity claim — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/rigetti-computing-jumped-49-in-five-days-on-a-5-8-million-air-force-deal-and-its-own-99-5-fidelity-claim