--- title: "Sandisk's $93.9 billion floor is contracted, but Samsung and SK hynix add NAND layers in China" description: "Ten multiyear deals across eight customers guarantee Sandisk at least $93.9 billion at floor pricing, with ceilings over the upside. Samsung, SK hynix and YMTC are adding NAND layers anyway, and the October 29 print shows who keeps the difference." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Silicon" published: 2026-10-21T14:14:49.288Z modified: 2026-10-21T14:14:49.288Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/sandisk-s-93-9-billion-floor-is-contracted-but-samsung-and-sk-hynix-add-nand-layers-in-china language: en keywords: "Sandisk, NAND, Memory, China, Semiconductors, Earnings" --- # Sandisk's $93.9 billion floor is contracted, but Samsung and SK hynix add NAND layers in China > Ten multiyear deals across eight customers guarantee Sandisk at least $93.9 billion at floor pricing, with ceilings over the upside. Samsung, SK hynix and YMTC are adding NAND layers anyway, and the October 29 print shows who keeps the difference. ## The floor is contracted, the level is not [Sandisk](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/sandisk) reports fiscal first-quarter results on October 29, guided to $10.30–10.80 billion of revenue at 83–85% gross margin [1]. The quarter underneath explains the stakes: fiscal Q4, ended July 3, [booked $8.97 billion of revenue at an 84.6% adjusted gross margin](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/02/data-centers-now-deliver-a-third-of-sandisk-s-revenue-usd2-98-billion-in-a-single-quarter/), up from 26.2% a year earlier, with about two-thirds of the sequential gain from price rather than volume [2]. *Chart: **Revenue jumped from $1.9B to $9.0B in eight quarters** Column chart of Sandisk quarterly revenue rising from $1.9 billion in fiscal Q3 2024 to $9.0 billion in fiscal Q4 2026.* *Quarterly revenue, US dollars in billions, from Sandisk's SEC filings; most recent fiscal Q4 ended July 3, 2026. [8]* The New Business Model does not lock that margin. Its ten agreements across eight customers guarantee a minimum $93.9 billion at floor pricing, backed by $16.5 billion of customer deposits and financial instruments, and cover about half of fiscal 2027 bit shipments [2]. Variable prices carry floors and ceilings [2]. Only the floor is contracted; everything above it is priced in Xi'an and Dalian. *Chart: **Gross margin climbed from 22.5% to 84.6% in six quarters; the new guide holds it flat** Line chart of Sandisk quarterly gross margin from 38.6 percent in Q3 2024 to 84.6 percent in Q2 2026, with the fiscal Q1 2027 guide shown as a flat estimate point at 84 percent with a range of 83 to 85 percent.* *Gross margin climbed from 22.5% to 84.6% in six quarters; the new guide holds it flat [7][1]* ## China is adding the layers that cap price [Reuters reported on October 21](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/21/samsung-sk-hynix-upgrading-china-plants-to-make-more-advanced-chips-people-say-reuters.html) that Samsung is converting Xi'an, about 40% of its global NAND output, from roughly 200-layer chips to 286-layer V9 under a project called Monami, aiming for 5,000 wafers a month in December 2026 and 40,000 by December 2027 [3]. [SK hynix](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/sk-hynix) is taking Dalian from 192 to 240-plus layers and may seek approval for 300-plus-layer research [3]. Washington said in 2025 it would license existing China fabs but not technology upgrades, and Reuters could not determine how many licenses have been granted [3]. YMTC already ships small volumes of 294-layer chips and held 38.5% of China's NAND market in the second quarter, up from 28% for all of 2025 [3]. [TrendForce estimates](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/10/21/news-samsung-sk-hynix-reportedly-push-china-nand-upgrades-beyond-200-layers-as-ymtc-competition-heats-up/) China at 30–35% of Samsung's NAND output and 40–45% of SK hynix's [5]. *Chart: **YMTC overtook Samsung in China's NAND market while Washington held the licenses** Range chart of China's NAND market share: YMTC up from 28 to 38.5 percent, Samsung down from 36 to 33.5, SK hynix down from 20 to 17.* *YMTC overtook Samsung in China's NAND market while Washington held the licenses [3]* [The Inference argued on October 17](https://theinference.org/article/sandisk-lost-57-8-billion-in-seven-sessions-on-a-china-dram-scare-in-a-market-it-does-not-sell-into) that a $57.8 billion, seven-session selloff was a DRAM scare in a market Sandisk does not sell into [2][4]. Reuters has now moved that risk inside NAND, the one market it does. Shares closed October 20 at $1,365.38, about 42% below the June high of $2,354.39, on a $197 billion capitalization after a year up roughly 400% [2][4]. ## The buyer across the table renews from strength The bull case has its own receipts: the ceilings cap upside as the floors cushion downside, Sandisk's own investor-day model calls for about 80% gross margin across fiscal 2028–30, below the level just posted, and at roughly seven times expected fiscal 2027 earnings a price decline is arguably already discounted [2]. What the contracts cannot transfer is the renewal. [Meta](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/meta), [Alphabet](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/alphabet) and [Oracle](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/oracle), the customers ramping now [1], would sit down in 2028 with 40,000 Xi'an wafers and a 300-plus-layer YMTC behind them. On October 29, watch gross margin against the 83–85% guide and any change in how the ten deals set floors and ceilings [3]. December's first 5,000 V9 wafers are the supply-side checkpoint [3]. ## Takeaway The floor is contracted, the level is not: Sandisk's October 29 print tests whether $93.9 billion of guaranteed floor pricing holds while Samsung, SK hynix and YMTC add NAND layers in China. ## Sources 1. [ad-hoc-news.de, "SanDisk's $93.9 Billion Contract Backlog Meets a Market That Won't Wait for October 29", 20 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/unternehmensnachrichten/sandisk-s-93-9-billion-contract-backlog-meets-a-market-that-won-t-wait-for-october-29/70368169) 2. [The Motley Fool, Daniel Sparks, "Data Centers Now Deliver a Third of Sandisk's Revenue, $2.98 Billion in a Single Quarter", 2 September 2026 (price data as of 20 October 2026)](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/02/data-centers-now-deliver-a-third-of-sandisk-s-revenue-usd2-98-billion-in-a-single-quarter/) 3. [CNBC, carrying Reuters, "Samsung, SK Hynix upgrading China plants to make more advanced chips, people say", 21 October 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/21/samsung-sk-hynix-upgrading-china-plants-to-make-more-advanced-chips-people-say-reuters.html) 4. [Calcalistech, "SanDisk expands in northern Israel as AI boom fuels stock surge", 21 October 2026](https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/ryhivehhmx) 5. [TrendForce, "Samsung, SK hynix Reportedly Push China NAND Upgrades Beyond 200 Layers as YMTC Competition Heats Up", 21 October 2026](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/10/21/news-samsung-sk-hynix-reportedly-push-china-nand-upgrades-beyond-200-layers-as-ymtc-competition-heats-up/) 7. [Sandisk Corporation, quarterly revenue and gross margin from its SEC filings, retrieved 21 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0002023554) 8. [Sandisk, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 21 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0002023554) --- Sandisk's $93.9 billion floor is contracted, but Samsung and SK hynix add NAND layers in China — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/sandisk-s-93-9-billion-floor-is-contracted-but-samsung-and-sk-hynix-add-nand-layers-in-china