---
title: "Sempra signs Petrobras for 20 years, and five banks cut their targets anyway"
description: "The LNG arm landed its first South American customer and two build milestones; between October 12 and 15, five banks marked down what they think the shares are worth. The argument is timing: regulated earnings now, LNG cash from 2030."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Energy"
published: 2026-10-16T01:27:40.878Z
modified: 2026-10-16T01:27:40.878Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/sempra-signs-petrobras-for-20-years-and-five-banks-cut-their-targets-anyway
language: en
keywords: "Sempra, LNG, Petrobras, Analyst Targets, Natural Gas"
---

# Sempra signs Petrobras for 20 years, and five banks cut their targets anyway

> The LNG arm landed its first South American customer and two build milestones; between October 12 and 15, five banks marked down what they think the shares are worth. The argument is timing: regulated earnings now, LNG cash from 2030.

## A 20-year customer, five colder targets

On September 14, [Sempra](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/sempra) Infrastructure, the LNG arm of Sempra (NYSE: SRE), a utility worth about $54 billion [2], signed Brazil's [Petrobras](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/petrobras) to [a 20-year contract for about 0.8 million tonnes of LNG a year from Port Arthur Phase 2 in Texas](https://embers.news/article/sempra-secures-20-year-petrobras-lng-deal-for-port-arthur-132736), its first South American customer [1][2]. The deal covers roughly 6% of the 13 million tonnes a year the project's two new trains are designed to produce [1].

Between October 12 and 15, five banks cut their targets: JPMorgan to $99 from $102 and [Barclays](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/barclays) to $90 from $103 on the 12th, [BofA](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/bank-of-america) to $88 from $101 and [Truist](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/truist-financial) to $94 from $96 on the 14th, [Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) to $103 from $110 on the 15th [2][3][4][5]. The shares closed at $81.99 on October 14, [down about 7% since January](https://theinference.org/article/sempra-s-chosen-quarter-for-the-10b-kkr-close-ended-with-no-close-and-a-52-week-low) [3].

*Chart: **Five targets cut in four days, every one still above the $81.99 close** Sempra 12-month price targets before and after the October 2026 cuts for JPMorgan, Barclays, BofA, Truist and Goldman Sachs, with every post-cut target still above the $81.99 close of October 14*

*Broker 12-month price targets in USD per share, before and after cuts reported October 12 to 15, 2026. Every new target remains above the NYSE close of $81.99 on October 14. [2][3][4][5]*

## The build keeps its dates

The $1 billion, 72-mile Louisiana Connector [entered service last month](https://rigandrefinery.com/articles/sempra-s-1b-louisiana-connector-enters-service-to-back-port-arthur-lng-297e79a9), sized for 2 billion cubic feet a day of feed gas into Port Arthur [6]. On Mexico's Pacific coast, Energía Costa Azul, run by Sempra Infrastructure with TotalEnergies holding 16.6%, [shipped its first cargo in July](https://maritime-executive.com/article/sempra-s-west-coast-mexican-lng-terminal-ships-first-cargo) [7][8]. Sempra then found damaged compressor equipment at the site and now expects full completion in the fourth quarter [9].

Port Arthur Phase 1, a $13 billion Bechtel build rated up to 13 million tonnes a year, finishes its two trains in 2027 and 2028 [6]. Phase 2, sanctioned in September 2025, adds two more of about the same size, with commercial operations due in 2030 or 2031 [1]. A 2025 scaffold collapse killed three workers and briefly suspended the site [6].

## The regulated side pays today's bills

Today's earnings come from the regulated side: Oncor, the Texas transmission utility, plus Sempra's California gas and power operations [9]. Second-quarter earnings [rose to $796 million from $461 million a year earlier](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/sempra-energy-q2-earnings-call-080349952.html) [2][9], and quarterly net income has climbed from $95 million in late 2025 to just over $1 billion in early 2026 [10].

*Chart: **Net income climbed from a $95 million quarter to $1 billion** Sempra quarterly GAAP net income from Q3 2023 to Q2 2026, dipping to $0.095 billion in Q3 2025 and reaching $1.04 billion in Q1 2026*

*Quarterly GAAP net income in USD billions, from Sempra's SEC filings, Q3 2023 through Q2 2026. [10]*

Behind the earnings, spending outran cash in the first half of 2026: capital projects consumed $2.2 billion to $2.5 billion a quarter against operating cash flow of $1.3 billion to $1.8 billion [10].

## What decides it lands on October 30

The ratings survived the cuts. [Truist kept its Buy while citing the political backdrop](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/truist-cuts-target-for-sempra-stock-to-usd-94/70327692) in Texas and California [5]; [the average analyst target sits about 20% above the share price](https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:a97cc3f42b584:0-dba-sempra-stock-12-month-price-target-cut-to-98-68-implies-20-upside/), and none of 23 covering analysts rates the stock a Sell [11]. Management said in August that both Port Arthur phases remain on time and on budget [9].

Petrobras starts paying when Phase 2 begins commercial operations in 2030 or 2031; all five target cuts landed within four days. The banks are repricing the wait for LNG cash rather than the plants. Sempra guides to $4.80 to $5.30 of adjusted 2026 earnings, pays a $0.6575 quarterly dividend today, and reports third-quarter results on October 30 [2][9]. Watch for Train 1 completion in 2027 and [whether the next Phase 2 contract covers more than Petrobras's 6%](https://theinference.org/article/petrobras-signed-20-years-with-sempra-then-bought-the-same-gas-from-cheniere) [6].

## Takeaway

Sempra's regulated utilities pay today's bills while the LNG build waits out to 2030; Petrobras locks in volume, the banks are repricing the wait, and the next catalyst is the October 30 earnings report.

## Sources

1. [Embers, Sempra Secures 20-Year Petrobras LNG Deal for Port Arthur, 9 October 2026](https://embers.news/article/sempra-secures-20-year-petrobras-lng-deal-for-port-arthur-132736)
2. [ad-hoc-news, JPMorgan cuts target for Sempra stock from USD 102.00 to USD 99.00, 14 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/jpmorgan-cuts-target-for-sempra-stock-from-usd-102-00-to-usd-99-00/70322056)
3. [MT Newswires via MarketScreener, BofA Adjusts Price Target on Sempra to $88 From $101, 14 October 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/bofa-adjusts-price-target-on-sempra-to-88-from-101-ce785dd2df88fe25)
4. [MT Newswires via MarketScreener, Goldman Sachs Adjusts Price Target on Sempra to $103 From $110, 15 October 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/goldman-sachs-adjusts-price-target-on-sempra-to-103-from-110-ce785dd3da8ff725)
5. [ad-hoc-news, Truist cuts target for Sempra stock to USD 94, 15 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/truist-cuts-target-for-sempra-stock-to-usd-94/70327692)
6. [Rig & Refinery (from Engineering News-Record), Sempra's $1B Louisiana Connector Enters Service to Feed Port Arthur LNG, collected 15 October 2026](https://rigandrefinery.com/articles/sempra-s-1b-louisiana-connector-enters-service-to-back-port-arthur-lng-297e79a9)
7. [The Maritime Executive, Sempra's West Coast Mexican LNG Terminal Ships First Cargo, 9 July 2026](https://maritime-executive.com/article/sempra-s-west-coast-mexican-lng-terminal-ships-first-cargo)
8. [Rig & Refinery, First Cargo Leaves Sempra's West Coast Mexico LNG Terminal, collected 15 October 2026](https://www.rigandrefinery.com/articles/first-cargo-leaves-sempra-s-west-coast-mexico-lng-terminal-6ce7f742)
9. [MarketBeat via Yahoo Finance, Sempra Energy Q2 Earnings Call Highlights, 9 August 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/sempra-energy-q2-earnings-call-080349952.html)
10. [Sempra, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 15 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001032208)
11. [TradingView News, Sempra Stock 12-Month Price Target Cut to $98.68, Implies 20% Upside, collected 15 October 2026](https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:a97cc3f42b584:0-dba-sempra-stock-12-month-price-target-cut-to-98-68-implies-20-upside/)


---

Sempra signs Petrobras for 20 years, and five banks cut their targets anyway — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/sempra-signs-petrobras-for-20-years-and-five-banks-cut-their-targets-anyway