--- title: "SK hynix's $45 billion New York NAND bet waits on US export licenses for its Dalian fab" description: "Commerce has held up the export licenses Dalian needs, and Dalian's cash is what Solidigm's $45 billion New York NAND build was counting on. Talks have narrowed to gear just to keep the Chinese plant running in 2027." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Chips" published: 2026-11-05T16:27:44.580Z modified: 2026-11-05T16:27:44.580Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/sk-hynix-s-45-billion-new-york-nand-bet-waits-on-us-export-licenses-for-its-dalian-fab language: en keywords: "SK hynix, Solidigm, NAND, Export Controls, Semiconductors" --- # SK hynix's $45 billion New York NAND bet waits on US export licenses for its Dalian fab > Commerce has held up the export licenses Dalian needs, and Dalian's cash is what Solidigm's $45 billion New York NAND build was counting on. Talks have narrowed to gear just to keep the Chinese plant running in 2027. Solidigm, the American NAND subsidiary of South Korea's [SK hynix](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/sk-hynix), wants to [spend about $45 billion on two memory-chip plants in Marcy, New York](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/exclusive-sk-hynixs-new-york-chip-plans-hit-snag-over-us-restrictions-on-china-sources-say/ar-AA2gGUSg), a figure that could reach $100 billion over time [3]. The money was supposed to come from China. Increased production at Dalian, the NAND fab SK hynix [bought from Intel for $9 billion in 2020](https://theinference.org/article/sk-hynix-paid-intel-8-8-billion-for-nand-the-ipo-talk-is-150-billion), would fund the US build, the company told Washington [3][5]. Washington has not paid up. The Commerce Department has [yet to approve the export licenses Dalian needs](https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-10-14/exclusive-sk-hynix-conditions-new-us-factory-on-more-us-chip-equipment-exports-to-china-sources-say) for American chipmaking equipment from suppliers like [Lam Research](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/lam-research), [Applied Materials](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/applied-materials) and [KLA](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/kla) [3][5]. At a meeting last week, Under Secretary Jeffrey Kessler held to the line that the US will not license tools that upgrade or expand capacity in China, even though filling Dalian's empty 2023 cleanroom adds no capacity, as SK hynix argues [3][4]. Talks have narrowed to a separate 2027 license just to keep Dalian running [1][3]. ## The clock is real Solidigm executives have met Commerce officials nearly ten times since late August, including co-CEO Richard Chin with Secretary Howard Lutnick; Oneida County's executive expects an answer within weeks, before [a federal investment tax credit expires on December 31](https://ijr.com/discover/us-export-delays-threaten-sk-hynix-s-45b-expansion-6015e4fa) [3]. ## Fallbacks that do not fill a $45 billion hole [Solidigm's fallback, an IPO](https://theinference.org/article/sk-hynix-killed-solidigm-s-ipo-us-nand-fab-has-no-named-funding-plan-and-dalian-s-license-ends-december-31), was halted on October 23 citing market conditions [3]. This week SK hynix [formalized Hyaico Corp, a US investment arm with up to $10 billion of capacity](https://cio.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/investments/sk-hynix-expands-us-ai-ambitions-with-up-to-usd-10-billion-investment-arm/135563608) chaired by SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won, funded by capital calls [6]. That is a complement, not a substitute, for a $45 billion fab bill [6]. *Chart: **The $45 billion New York plan against the numbers around it** Bars comparing the $9 billion Dalian purchase, the $10 billion Hyaico arm capacity, the $45 billion proposed New York investment, and the roughly $100 billion potential build* *US dollar billions. New York potential total and Hyaico capacity are ceilings, not committed spend. Sources: Reuters, Korea Herald. [3][5][6]* Shareholders are already paying: [the stock fell 7.74% on November 4](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sk-hynix-sheds-nearly-8-013758224.html) and is down about 30% in a month, though still up 97.70% year to date [7]. The counterpoint: [Commerce has not formally denied anything](https://www.techspot.com/news/114443-us-export-restrictions-china-threaten-sk-hynix-plans.html), officials appeared eager to land the investment, and [Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) called the sector's selloff excessively pessimistic [3][7]. Watch the license decision, the December 31 tax-credit deadline, and a new Congress sworn in January 3 [3][7]. If Dalian stalls, NAND supply stays tighter for longer, and [Micron](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/micron) collects the difference. ## Takeaway Commerce has held up the export licenses that Dalian's output, the earmarked funder of Solidigm's $45 billion New York NAND build, depends on; talks have narrowed to a 2027 license just to keep the plant running, and the tax-credit deadline is December 31. ## Sources 1. [IJR, US export delays threaten SK Hynix's $45B expansion, 5 November 2026](https://ijr.com/discover/us-export-delays-threaten-sk-hynix-s-45b-expansion-6015e4fa) 3. [Reuters via MSN, Exclusive: SK Hynix's New York chip plans hit snag over US restrictions on China, 3 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/exclusive-sk-hynixs-new-york-chip-plans-hit-snag-over-us-restrictions-on-china-sources-say/ar-AA2gGUSg) 4. [TechSpot, US export restrictions on China threaten SK Hynix's plans to build $45 billion worth of chip plants in New York, 4 November 2026](https://www.techspot.com/news/114443-us-export-restrictions-china-threaten-sk-hynix-plans.html) 5. [Reuters via U.S. News, Exclusive: SK Hynix Conditions New US Factory on More US Chip Equipment Exports to China, 14 October 2026](https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-10-14/exclusive-sk-hynix-conditions-new-us-factory-on-more-us-chip-equipment-exports-to-china-sources-say) 6. [ET CIO (Korea Herald), SK hynix expands US AI ambitions with up to USD 10 billion investment arm, 4 November 2026](https://cio.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/investments/sk-hynix-expands-us-ai-ambitions-with-up-to-usd-10-billion-investment-arm/135563608) 7. [Yahoo Finance (BeInCrypto), SK Hynix Sheds Nearly 8% While Dow Jumps: What Is Seoul Pricing In?, 4 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/sk-hynix-sheds-nearly-8-013758224.html) --- SK hynix's $45 billion New York NAND bet waits on US export licenses for its Dalian fab — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/sk-hynix-s-45-billion-new-york-nand-bet-waits-on-us-export-licenses-for-its-dalian-fab