--- title: "Snowflake's CFO calls forecasting CoCo 'somewhat reckless'; investors just paid 7.42% more anyway" description: "Wall Street raised revenue estimates on Snowflake's AI agent while CFO Brian Robins says forecasting CoCo into guidance would be \"somewhat reckless.\" Someone is wrong, and the December quarter will say who." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Money" published: 2026-10-10T21:24:38.863Z modified: 2026-10-10T21:24:38.863Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/snowflake-s-cfo-calls-forecasting-coco-somewhat-reckless-investors-just-paid-7-42-more-anyway language: en keywords: "Snowflake, AI Agents, Earnings, Free Cash Flow, Valuation" --- # Snowflake's CFO calls forecasting CoCo 'somewhat reckless'; investors just paid 7.42% more anyway > Wall Street raised revenue estimates on Snowflake's AI agent while CFO Brian Robins says forecasting CoCo into guidance would be "somewhat reckless." Someone is wrong, and the December quarter will say who. [Snowflake](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/snowflake) investors paid up 7.42% on October 9 for a product its own finance chief will not put in a forecast. The stock closed at $368.89 after the company [released Agentic Marketplace Discovery in public preview](https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/stockstory-2026-10-9-snowflake-snow-stock-trades-up-here-is-why), a tool that lets customers query Snowflake's AI agent CoCo to find and compare Marketplace listings [1][3]. CoCo sits at the center of the bull case. It carries about 9,100 accounts as of the July quarter, up more than 2,000 in the quarter [1]. ## The bulls raised estimates. The CFO raised a red flag Analysts have lifted revenue estimates after each of the last two reports: fiscal 2027 consensus is up about 7% since March 31, fiscal 2028 up about 10% [1]. Robins wants no part of that compounding in guidance. At the Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference on September 15 he [called extracting the CoCo forecast into guidance "somewhat... reckless,"](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/snowflake-stock-jumped-7-day-155639989.html) saying Snowflake applies a haircut because "we have 2 quarters' worth of data. So we're getting closer to what that number is" [1]. Snowflake's top 10 CoCo skills even include a cost optimizer that shrinks customer bills [1]. ## What actually lands in the bank July-quarter free cash flow of $83.80 million missed the $107.27 million estimate by 21.87%, the third miss in five quarters, on a GAAP loss of $0.55 per share [1]. [SEC filings show](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001640147) revenue accelerating to 35.1% growth in the July quarter while free cash flow ran $84 million against $1.55 billion of revenue [4]. That gap is what 146x NTM normalized P/E and 18x EV/NTM revenue must eventually cover [1]. September's $3.75 billion of 0% convertible notes adds dilution risk [1]. *Chart: **Revenue compounds every quarter, free cash flow stays thin** Line chart of Snowflake quarterly revenue and free cash flow in billions of US dollars across the eight quarters from Q3 fiscal 2024 to Q2 fiscal 2026, showing revenue rising from $0.94B to $1.55B while free cash flow oscillates between $58M and $765M.* *Quarterly revenue and free cash flow, USD billions, from Snowflake's SEC filings via company_series [4]; the $0.084B July 2026 quarter figure ties to the $83.80 million reported by TIKR via Yahoo Finance [1]. [4][1]* ## Migrations took 10 or 11 months. With CoCo, about 6 The core is real: migrations that took 10 or 11 months now take about 6 with CoCo agents, and Snowflake has canceled its own BI and analytics contracts in favor of CoCo dashboards [1]. Analysts rate it 36 Buy, 9 Outperform, 5 Hold, 1 Underperform, 1 Sell [1]. The bears' strongest argument is behavioral: the CFO knows more about the bookings than the buyers, and he is the one discounting. *Chart: **45 of 52 analysts rate Snowflake Buy or better** Pie chart of the 52 analyst ratings on Snowflake: 36 Buy and 9 Outperform dominate the circle, with 5 Hold, 1 Underperform and 1 Sell making up the thin remainder.* *Sell-side ratings on Snowflake as of October 2026: 36 Buy, 9 Outperform, 5 Hold, 1 Underperform, 1 Sell across 52 analysts, per TIKR data via Yahoo Finance [1]. [1]* ## December 2 will say who was wrong October-quarter results are expected around December 2, with analysts modeling about 36% revenue growth [1]. If CoCo adds another 2,000-plus accounts and growth beats that line, the haircut was too deep. A smaller gain means management was right and 146x has nowhere to hide. Count the accounts, not the preview. ## Takeaway Wall Street has raised Snowflake's estimates on CoCo while CFO Brian Robins haircuts the same agent for having only two quarters of data; the December 2 print decides who was right. ## Sources 1. [Yahoo Finance / TIKR, 'Snowflake Stock Jumped 7% in a Day. Here's Why Its CFO Haircuts the CoCo Forecast', 10 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/snowflake-stock-jumped-7-day-155639989.html) 3. [StockStory via FinancialContent, 'Snowflake (SNOW) Stock Trades Up, Here Is Why', 9 October 2026](https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/stockstory-2026-10-9-snowflake-snow-stock-trades-up-here-is-why) 4. [Snowflake, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 10 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001640147) --- Snowflake's CFO calls forecasting CoCo 'somewhat reckless'; investors just paid 7.42% more anyway — The Inference. 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