--- title: "SpaceX closes below its $135 IPO price while Musk promises 10,000 Starship launches a year from one site" description: "Shares closed 6.37% lower on Friday, under the $135 IPO price, as tech earnings punctured the AI trade. The same week, SpaceX cast the FAA's airspace rules as the bottleneck while its own flight plan runs at about 1% of the launch rate Musk now claims for one site." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Robotics & Defense" published: 2026-10-30T21:18:06.590Z modified: 2026-10-30T21:18:06.590Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/spacex-closes-below-its-135-ipo-price-while-musk-promises-10-000-starship-launches-a-year-from-one-site language: en keywords: "SpaceX, Elon Musk, Starship, FAA, IPO" --- # SpaceX closes below its $135 IPO price while Musk promises 10,000 Starship launches a year from one site > Shares closed 6.37% lower on Friday, under the $135 IPO price, as tech earnings punctured the AI trade. The same week, SpaceX cast the FAA's airspace rules as the bottleneck while its own flight plan runs at about 1% of the launch rate Musk now claims for one site. ## The offer price breaks [Amazon](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/amazon), [Alphabet](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/alphabet) and [Meta](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/meta) each fell more than 1% on Friday after earnings that undershot the AI trade's bar, and [SpaceX](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/spacex) (SPCX) went with them: [down 6.37% to $134.72, closing under the $135 offer price of its June 12 IPO](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b5aeecce-1d32-3744-aa96-e36fea749124/tech-earnings-send-spacex.html) [1][2]. [That listing raised a record $75 billion](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-stock-price-ipo-spcx-initial-public-offering/) [3]. [More than $400 billion of market value has come off](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/spacex-has-lost-more-than-400-billion-in-market-value-in-less-than-a-month/ar-AA2gqkW6) since the October 6 high above $2.3 trillion, and about 1.3 billion lockup shares became sellable on October 22 [4]. ## One site sized like the whole country Three days before the rout, SpaceX [told the FAA its air-traffic processes cannot support many more launches than happen today](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/musk-10k-starship-launches-just-201048757.html), and proposed dedicated launch corridors, faster approvals and its Cleared coordination tool, which it says major airlines already use [5][6]. [Musk](https://theinference.org/markets/people/elon-musk) went further: "10k Starship launches/year is just from Starbase Louisiana," [a planned $100 billion site near Pecan Island](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/elon-musk-says-spacex-s-starbase-louisiana-alone-could-support-10-000-annual-starship-launches-with-roughly-30-daily-operations-planned/ar-AA2geBJ3), designed for about 30 operations a day, with construction from 2027 and a first launch targeted for 2029 [5][6]. ## The whole country flew 204 times last year The FAA counted a record 204 commercial launch and reentry operations in all of fiscal 2025, and its forecast for the entire country in 2035 is 10,000 [5]. [The Inference priced the ask at 76 Starship launches a year and 133 times forward earnings on October 6](https://theinference.org/article/spacex-asks-the-faa-for-76-starship-launches-a-year-and-spcx-trades-at-133-times-forward-earnings); the ask is now 10,000, at about 53 [5]. ## The rocket, not the sky, sets the pace Starship's own schedule runs at a sliver of the claim: weekly flights in the first half of 2027, twice-weekly by that December, about 100 a year [5]. Flight 14 on September 28 deployed 26 Starlink satellites, lost an engine, flew about three of ten planned hours and lost both stages [5]. FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford has said reliability must improve substantially before any big jump in frequency [5][6], and [the agency's review of Texas operations](https://nai500.com/blog/2026/10/spacex-plans-major-increase-in-starship-launch-frequency-faa-initiates-environmental-review/) starts at 100 launches a year against a current cap of 25 [7]. *Chart: **Musk's one-site claim matches the FAA's forecast for the entire country** Bar chart comparing annual launch and reentry operations: about 100 guided Starship flights for end-2027, 204 actual US commercial operations in fiscal 2025, a 456-launch Texas proposal, the FAA's 10,000-operation forecast for the entire country in 2035, and Musk's 10,000-launch claim for Starbase Louisiana alone.* *Annual launch and reentry operations. Louisiana is Musk's stated capacity for the unbuilt site; the 2035 bar is the FAA's forecast for all US commercial operations; Texas is SpaceX's pending FAA proposal against a current cap of 25; end-2027 is company guidance at twice-weekly flights. Sources: TIKR/Yahoo Finance, Benzinga, NAI500. [5][6][7]* ## Shareholders pay for the slots either way The build is funded either way: capital spending ran $55.1 billion over the last twelve months, and $40 billion of the $48.1 billion spent through September went to AI data centers [5][8]. The bull case is real too. [Third-quarter revenue rose 161% to $14.6 billion with $4.4 billion of net income](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/21/spacex-spcx-stock-musk-merger-tesla.html), the Super Intelligence segment grew ninefold to $7.56 billion, and 29 of 35 analysts rate the stock a buy [2][9]. *Chart: **Capital spending outran revenue in all three quarters of 2026** Column chart of SpaceX quarterly revenue and capital spending for Q1 to Q3 2026: revenue climbs from $4.7 billion to $14.6 billion while capital spending climbs from $10.1 billion to $19.6 billion, staying above revenue in every quarter.* *Quarterly revenue and capital spending, USD billions, as reported in SpaceX's SEC filings. Capex through September totaled $48.1 billion; fourth-quarter 2025 figures were not reported. Source: SpaceX quarterly figures from its SEC filings. [8]* Musk calls $1 trillion of 2028 revenue "no longer impossible"; Morningstar's [Nicolas Owens sees $70 of fair value](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/spacex-stock-is-25-below-its-all-time-high-here-s-what-5-000-invested-today-could-be-worth-by-the-end-of-2027/ar-AA2gpBF7), doubting compute demand outruns supply forever [9]. Consensus, from $48.8 billion of revenue this year to $330 billion in 2028, is what 53 times earnings already pays for [5]. ## Flight 15 decides November The near test is Starship Flight 15, expected in November, which will try to catch both booster and ship; Musk says two catches put weekly flights within reach [4][5]. Traders have the fork priced: success reclaims $140, a stumble brings the summer lows near $107 into play [4]. The gap between today's cadence and [the 180 flights a year the orbital AI plan needs](https://theinference.org/article/spacex-s-orbital-ai-plan-needs-180-starship-flights-a-year-the-rocket-has-flown-14-times-ever) was tallied on October 17 [4]. The scarce asset in orbital launch is no longer the rocket; it is the permission to fly it. ![A Super Heavy booster is caught between the launch tower's arms at Starbase during Starship's fifth flight test](https://storage.googleapis.com/theinference-public/img/5afc8c508d32ac66.jpg) *The maneuver Flight 15 will attempt with both stages: Super Heavy returns to the tower during Starship Flight 5, October 2024. (Bech, Prospectprospekt and Steve Jurvetson via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0))* ## Takeaway The stock broke its June offer price on a broad tech selloff, and the cadence gap is the story: 204 US launch operations in fiscal 2025 against Musk's 10,000-a-year claim for one unbuilt site, with Starship Flight 15 in November the near test. ## Sources 1. [Barron's via Yahoo Finance, "Tech Earnings Send SpaceX Stock Below IPO Price. No Other Companies Met Elon Musk's High Bar.", 30 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b5aeecce-1d32-3744-aa96-e36fea749124/tech-earnings-send-spacex.html) 2. [CNBC, "SpaceX stock jumps 10% after earnings beat and Musk hints at Tesla tie-up", 21 October 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/21/spacex-spcx-stock-musk-merger-tesla.html) 3. [CBS News, "SpaceX stock soars 19% on first day of trading following record-breaking $75 billion IPO", 12 June 2026](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-stock-price-ipo-spcx-initial-public-offering/) 4. [Yahoo Finance, "SpaceX has lost more than $400 billion in market value in less than a month", 30 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/spacex-has-lost-more-than-400-billion-in-market-value-in-less-than-a-month/ar-AA2gqkW6) 5. [TIKR via Yahoo Finance, "Musk: '10k Starship Launches/Year' From Just One Site. SpaceX Says the FAA Is the Bottleneck", 30 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/musk-10k-starship-launches-just-201048757.html) 6. [Benzinga, "Elon Musk Says SpaceX's Starbase Louisiana Alone Could Support 10,000 Annual Starship Launches, With Roughly 30 Daily Operations Planned", 28 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/elon-musk-says-spacex-s-starbase-louisiana-alone-could-support-10-000-annual-starship-launches-with-roughly-30-daily-operations-planned/ar-AA2geBJ3) 7. [NAI500, "SpaceX Plans Major Increase in Starship Launch Frequency, FAA Initiates Environmental Review", 13 October 2026](https://nai500.com/blog/2026/10/spacex-plans-major-increase-in-starship-launch-frequency-faa-initiates-environmental-review/) 8. [SpaceX, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 30 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001181412) 9. [The Motley Fool, "SpaceX stock is 25% below its all-time high. Here's what $5,000 invested today could be worth by the end of 2027.", 30 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/spacex-stock-is-25-below-its-all-time-high-here-s-what-5-000-invested-today-could-be-worth-by-the-end-of-2027/ar-AA2gpBF7) --- SpaceX closes below its $135 IPO price while Musk promises 10,000 Starship launches a year from one site — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/spacex-closes-below-its-135-ipo-price-while-musk-promises-10-000-starship-launches-a-year-from-one-site